University applications process predicted grades

[Greenflowery]

We are new to this, both parents foreigners and first child going to university in the UK.

What happens if your predicted grades are lower than you need but you achieve the grades you need. Does this mean you may not get any offers

Shamelessly adding myself to your post as I'd like to know the answer to this to as it's changed since I went to University. I'm sure it was much more flexible in the 90's but there also wasn't as many students going to university either.

Unless you’ve taken exams and are applying grades in hand, offers are based on predicted grades. If they’re lower than grade requirements you are unlikely to get an offer. If you then achieve the grades needed you would see if anything was available via clearing or take a year out and apply grades in hand the following year.

Thank you. Everything was simpler when I went to university back home. So basically if the predicted grades aren’t good it is better not to waste your time. And when does the school get the predicted grades? DC had second mocks in June. I think first ones were good.

DC needs A* maths, A A. So it is basically all or nothing

This. Although in many cases even if predicted grades are lower than the advertised offer, the applicant will probably still receive an offer. Also even if an applicant's results just miss the offer, the uni will still often accept them.

The likelihood of the above happening increases the lower down the grade profile of the offer - very rough rule of thumb! So Imperial offering 3 x Astars are not likely to make an offer to someone predicted 3 x Bs, or to accept someone who missed their offer by a grade. A uni languishing at the bottom of the league tables will probably offer everyone who applies and take those that just missed.

Cross post. The school don't receive predicted grades from elsewhere - they decide them based on the evidence they have to hand about a students likely outcome. Speak to the school.

The date the predicted grades come out varies by school, but may be in this term's report. The actual predicted grades go on the UCAS application.

They will affect offers, and so you have to ve realistic when applying. You can put down a couple of higher graded universities, and then a couple of of backup with lower grades.

If your dc does better than predicted, they can either go through clearing and see what they can get, or take a year out and apply with grades in hand.

Which predicted grades does the university use? They had 3 mocks, next one in January next year. What happened if they apply for university in October this year.

I am feeling very ignorant. This whole thing only started hitting me now.

They use the ones that the school put on the form. The school may use mocks as a guide but most schools tend to make a prediction based on a variety of factors. Best to speak to the teachers about likely predicted grades.

The school will decide how they predict grades themselves. DD's school sat mocks in November, but her application had gone in at the end of Sept. The uni can only go on 1 set of PGs submitted by the school when their UCAS form goes in.

The university will use the predicted grades issued by the school. Of course some schools give over optimistic predicted grades which means that whilst the students may get an offer they won't get a place when their actual results fail to meet the offer.

This then means a large number of students won't get their first choice universities which then doesn't look good on the school stats.

So predicted grades are a bit of educated guess work - too high and the results won't meet the offers , too low and the students won't get the offers in the first place

Also many schools won’t complete references /predicted grades in October unless a student is applying for Oxbridge, medical or conservatoire early entry. They concentrate on getting those early deadline applications out of the way first.

Thank you. Will message the school

My DC's predicted grades are based on several factors, their mock exams, their end of topic test grades that they have taken all the way through year 12, homework marks, contribution in class to show understanding and their overall attitude to learning which means they have some they know who will work hard to bring grades up.

The top tier unis will ask for AAA but offer to those on much higher grades because predicted grades are the best guess so some students will miss their grades on results day.

The best advice is after mocks to go over the papers (and any previous papers or topic tests) and work out why they didn't get full marks. You can't lose marks only gain them. He has the summer to work on understanding the content of year 12 and there are many online resources for this.

Predicted grades will be an optimistic interpretation of the students' performance data. It's usually what they think that the student could get, on a good day - but still rooted firmly in the data of prior performance.
I usually advise students to apply on the basis of their predicted grades, as outlined above (one or two aspirational; two realistic; one below predicted) and then to make a decision after results. If they've done better than expected they can withdraw from whichever offer they are holding, and take their chances to upgrade in clearing or take a gap year, or, if their grades are close to their predictions, they have at least got a place in hand.

It might be worth a few conversations about how accurate your school's predictions have tended to be. In my experience, teachers tend to have a more realistic and accurate view of the student's potential than the student or their parents.

School/college submit the pg which may be based upon mocks, assessments, likely progress trajectory. Some courses/unis are more competitive and will only offer to those with pg at or above standard offer but may allow a slip on results day if there is positive work experience or demonstrable enthusiasm for example and they have capacity. Usually advice is to apply to a cross section of courses , one or two ambitious, one or two at/near pg and a safe one. From the offers you narrow down to two, a Firm and an Insurance. Worth checking Clearing availability this year to find a course often undersubscribed just in case.

Yes thats what it means. Bizarely, your predicted grades are actually more important than your actual grades now in some ways which is ridiculous. But that's how the system works now. Say the school 'only' predict you BBB, but you think you can get ABB, this means that the top 10 or so unis for your course are out of reach as they are unlikely (or less likely) to offer for a course where the published requirements are ABB. However, if you can persuade the school to predict you ABB, you will likely get an offer for an ABB course, and then quite possibly still get in if you actually get BBB anyway - either directly at result as time, or through clearing. But its much better to get in directly as your first choice as then you have accomodation guaranteed etc.

This exact thing happenned to my child last year. Wanted to apply to courses at top 10/RGs for the course which specified AAB. School were predicting BBB. Eventually got them to predict ABB. Applied to ambitious RG AAB uni, 2 x ABBs and 2 x BBBs. Got offers from all 5, including the AAB with ABB predictions. I don't think would have got the offer from the AAB with BBB predicted as that would have been 2 below. So first choice was the ambitious AAB, second choice one of the ABBs. Got ABB, but AAB let them in on results day anyway and just passed first year with high marks. But he wouldn't have been in the running for that course at that uni if his predicted grades had stayed at BBB, because they wouldnt have offered (and the course did not go to clearing so the lowest grade kid on there is an ABB like mine).

So the moral of the story, and what I will be telling younger DC now been through this once, is you have to hit the ground running in L6 first year of A levels and get good marks and mock results so that they give you the predicted grades you need before the applications go in in October of U6, or you will be blocked from applying to many of the courses/unis that specify higher grades. The good news is that most schools seems to predict low initially, to give them a kick up the arse if needed, but then give them a couple of opportunities through further tests, assignements etc to go up a grade or two before the applications go in at half term.

Much easier to be getting the grades you need by the end of L6 though ...

Private schools are notorious for over-predicting - largely because they're more vulnerable to parental pressure.

Not at my son's private school... they predicted BBB, because he was quite lazy in L6 and that wa sthe level he was at, that ruled out applying for most of the courses he wanted which were AAA or AAB. He asked them if they would but him up to ABB. They put him on a specific program for him to prove that was achievable in that subject which included re-taking mocks and getting a certain percentage in 2 pieces of work and 2 tests over an 8 week period. He managed to do that. The put him up to ABB. He got ABB. He's just passed first year at AAB uni with a 2:1 average.

Lots of his friends had to do similar, including some trying to get from an A to an A* and all of them got the higher grades in the end (or higher) and all of them got into their first choices. So my impression is that their private school was actually under-predicting, at least initially. I'd have thought most schools would do this to push the lazier kids to push themselves a bit more to improve actual achieved results? Which are too late to help with individual uni applications of course (in year) but are what the schools are measured on.

Schools will use the predicted grades from the exams at the end of Yr12, there might be the chance to do some resits in the September though, some schools do some don't.

Even exceeding the grades in some cases does not guarantee you a place on some very popular courses. DS was turned down by one uni despite being predicted 3 A stars, an A star EPQ and a strong personal statement. The grades required to get on some comp sci courses have got ridiculously high - perhaps due to the fact that Comp Sci is the most popular subject for international students who bring in considerably more money.

You say your DC 'needs' those grades. Presumably that is for one uni. Has he looked at other unis with lower requirements?
How did he do at GCSE? Is he likely to get those type of results based on his GCSEs? If not he needs to be looking at courses with lower requirements. In any case, most schools recommend picking 2 aspirational unis, 2 unis that should be achievable and 1 that is 'safe'. If they get offers, you can then pick your firm and insurance choices with a better idea of likely results.

DD'S college seems to use, mocks, course work and end of unit tests to give them predicted grades. She was able to ask to redo one mock to increase her grades.

We are definitely looking at different courses which require different entry requirements, Her favourite is AAB but we are looking at some with BBB as well.

We had similar with Dd. She needed BBB for her predicted grades really and originally the school predicted BBC. I knew if they predicted her BBB her first choice would give her an unconditional offer and asked the school to change her predicted grades. Which they did and she got her unconditional offer. At the time I believed she could get BBB (not that it mattered I guess) but then she ended up spending months in hospital and didn’t get BBC i don’t think. But got her first choice and a 1st class degree so all good.

And you can apply for an “aspirational place” so somewhere which wants higher grades than predicted. They might offer a place on the condition he gets the higher grade.

It’s a bit of a game really. We predict students the most optimistic grade we can. We often ask them to do some extra work over the summer to prove that they are serious about working hard if they ask for a higher prediction after the Year 12 summer exams. I wouldn’t predict someone something they would never get but will sometimes stretch a little.