University applications process predicted grades

[Greenflowery]

We are new to this, both parents foreigners and first child going to university in the UK.

What happens if your predicted grades are lower than you need but you achieve the grades you need. Does this mean you may not get any offers

The best place to get the latest info on the applications process will always be from the university admissions pages. My DC only applied 5 years ago, but so much has changed over the last few years that there's little point in relying on historic info or hearsay.

I haven’t watched the whole thing yet, but there’s an interesting video of a presentation on a research project here.

Image is of the first slide, which is probably all the informatiothat’s needed here. (Click on the picture to read the whole slide.)

OP, when you say your Y12 DC 'needs' AstarAA (with Astar in Maths), do you mean they have identified one or more courses at one or more unis with this typical offer (eg Maths or Econ)? If so, a couple of points to consider:

Aspirations are good but realistic alternative plans need to be in place; this means not over investing in one course and also DC researching and be accepting of other unis with lower typical offers as part of their overall UCAS application strategy (hopefully that is the case).

The Astar stipulation in Maths is a flag that the uni considers the mathematical content of its course (even if not a Maths degree) is sufficiently demanding that you really need an Astar in Maths to keep up and thrive. So if achieving Astar in Maths is likely to be a bit of a struggle then be careful what that then means at unis with highly selective entry.

It is important that your DC talks to their teachers about the trajectory of their maths performance. I had one DC who had an 8 in Maths at GCSE and continued to accelerate in Y12&13 and so the range of potential unis shifted upwards by the time they came to submit their UCAS form. I also had another DC who achieved a 9 in Maths at GCSE but who was beginning to hit a bit of a ceiling in Y12&13 in relation to the pure maths (though accelerated in other subjects), so their course and uni choices also shifted as Y12&13 progressed.

Actually, a friend's DC was told something similar at a recent Oxford open day. High emphasis on entrance test and GCSEs; low emphasis on predicted and the PS.

At the Oxford admissions talk we were at last week they said the PS was very important as were predicted grades! So unless there were very extenuating circumstances you'd have to be predicted at least the offer grades. They had a section on the talk specifically on the PS.

I think it possibly depends on the subject. Maybe PS not so important for STEM?

Possibly- although was a general talk and one of the students talking about her PS was doing Maths. I suspect if you score very highly in the admissions test the PS becomes less important as to whether you might get an interview but if you're score isn't so great they will look at your PS more? The main guy also said they can use the PS as a basis for interview questions so don't lie!

They fully appreciate that some PSs are full of exciting opportunities which are only available to a limited few.

I think the maths talk said PS wasn't so important. The maths interview is definitely all about maths problem solving not PS.

@FiveFoxes - I think you're right but they did say for maths that the PS was important to get you the interview if your test score wasn't amazing. The other student was doing PPE and said his PS was v important. It's all a lottery!

yes, this makes sense. Predicting a little bit better to encourage the kids without stretching too much to something unachievable.

It wasn't used at all in DD's interview for PPE. They did ask about her EPQ though

@Lemonsole Actually this is incorrect. I saw a multivariate analysis study which found that independent schools were more accurate in their predictions and that it was in fact state schools that tended to overpredict, especially for what they considered 'high achievers' (AAB or over).

Anecdotally this has been what I've noticed too. A local state school predicted all A-star to a strong student who nevertheless had mainly achieved B/Cs in tests/coursework. Had done well at GCSEs (mix of 9s/8s) - went on to achieve ABBC in her STEM subjects.

I'll see if I can find the link/journal ref...

Here is the link to the study: https://www.ucu.org.uk/media/8409/Predicted-grades-accuracy-and-impact-Dec-16/pdf/Predicted_grades_report_Dec2016.pdf

That might be the case for Oxford but it is not the same for Cambridge where different colleges make different offers and this can change each application cycle so you need to get the exact info from that college website for the correct entry year.

This is excellent advice. And there are trends in predictions: fee-paying schools tend to over-predict, and state comprehensives tend to under-predict.

But the best source of advice about grades for target or achievable universities will come from your DC's teachers.

oops have just read @lbwagain 's post.

I stand corrected - although when I was Admissions tutor for my department, I worked with the Sutton Trust to get more no-traditional applicants, and my colleagues there were advising about over- and under-prediction: that fee-paying schools tended to over-predict. I trust the work of the Sutton Trust.

I wonder if their work on pointing this out has led to state schools starting to lift their predictions, to give less privileged pupils the opportunities for offers taken for granted in fee-paying schools.