University applications process predicted grades

[Greenflowery]

We are new to this, both parents foreigners and first child going to university in the UK.

What happens if your predicted grades are lower than you need but you achieve the grades you need. Does this mean you may not get any offers

I'd just like to say that predicted grades need to be realistic for the student too.

If you look to be achieving AAB and your school predicts AAA, you might get AAA offers. BUT you have to achieve these grades in the actual exams or you'll find you can't get into your firm choice and end up at your insurance.

We were told to choose 5 unis on the application and write a decent, genuine personal statement. Be honest about predicted grades, and don't be frightened of applying for places advertising for higher grades than you are predicted. My dc did this and got 2 offers based on achieving the advertised grades and 3 offers based on lower than advertised grades. One uni's offer was CCC, whereas their advertised requirements were BBC, for example. Register and go to the open days and applicants days, as they want people who have already visited.

That’s good to know. Just concerned that DC doesn’t get the predicted A* for maths they need but may get it on the final result

In our experience the Unis made an offer based on what they wanted, even though DS's predicted grades were a grade lower. It didn't stop him getting the offers.
He was predicted Astar, A, B. Offers mainly AAA. Tried to persuade school to predict a 3rd A, they declined.
I think it motivated him to prove them wrong and get an A in the subject in which he was predicted B so all was well in the end.

Remember that there's no guarantee that your DS will received offers for every course, even if his PGs exceed the typical offer. Sometimes there no rhyme nor reason behind offers for popular courses such as CS, economics and maths with those with 4 x Astar PGs being rejected. DD was shocked that her "safe" choice turned her down, simply saying that they had far too many applicants.

Your mention of October deadline implies you are applying to Oxbridge. You will need decent predicted grades to put on your application in order to get to interview process, so that's the first hurdle. You also have to be ready early (other deadlines are January).

If you are successful at interview, you will be made an offer at the level the college feels is appropriate. So it might be A*AA. But it might be lower, depending on circumstances, background and how much they want the person on their course. For example, they might say AAB or ABB with the highest grade in the chosen subject. (Sorry I cannot put lots of stars as MN keeps making everything bold between the stars!).

That's not true of Oxford @catsnore. They make exactly the same offer to everyone. Humanities AAA, computer science A star AA, maths A stars in maths & FM, A in something else, E&M A star AA. Another common myth is that Oxford makes contextual offers - they don't.

Does it matter when they submit the application? DC is not applying for medicine so thinking of submitting it in January

Given the situation, is there a chance that Jan will earn DC time to show their stuff and raise their PGs?

There is no disadvantage, all applications received by deadline must be assessed equally (former admissions tutor). Only some very strong, relatively speaking, early applications to a selecting school will get early offers

Yes to this- at the admissions talk the other day they stressed this and also that every college would offer the same for the same course- ie an offer for History would be the same whatever college you applied to.

There are specific subjects and unis which require the application to be submitted in October but even then you can submit just for those and add more options later. Your school/college will normally advise on the UCAS process towards end year 12, and offer support in drafting a ps and which unis to shortlist according to pg and their past experience. Maybe even arrange visits to unis and open days. Some use a platform like unifrog to gather information in one place and identify potential courses.

Although all applications received by Jan (Oct for Oxbridge, med, vet med and dentistry) will be treated equally, it's likely your school won't want any last minute applications and will have their own timetable - probably will want applications in before Christmas (as applications then go to the school for the reference and predicted grades). It's also nice to have it done and dusted, and possibly an offer or two before Christmas. So I'd aim to have the five decided on by the end of October (and open days gone to) and personal statement done by end November.

DS's predicted grades are coming out later this week. The school has sent out a very long letter about their approach to predicted grades and how they won't boost them beyond what they think reasonable to get offers - but students who want their predicted grades to improve must prove they have improved in early year 13.

A good policy. It does pupils no favours to inflate their PGs in order to get them offers they will not obtain. That serves only the interests of the school

Don’t bother applying to highly oversubscribed unis and courses if u don’t hit required criteria as it’ll b an automatic rejection, most applying will have predicted or in hand grades much higher than required.
Try an apply to a mix of unis do they have more chance of offers, if they think they r capable of higher grades than predicted they could always take a gap year and apply with grades in hand.

Can I just clarify something @catsnore mentioned. STEM subjects at Oxford use admissions tests which you sit before the interview stage (some also place some weight on the number of 8s and 9s at GCSEs). No weight is given to predicted A-level grades.

Don’t bother applying to highly oversubscribed unis and courses if u don’t hit required criteria as it’ll b an automatic rejection, most applying will have predicted or in hand grades much higher than required.

This is simply not true in my experience.

This is not true! Please don’t post general information which may mislead people just starting their research. It is really important to dig down into the admission requirements for each university and each subject - and even different degree courses within a broad subject. For example, this is what Oxford Material sciences (a STEM subject) say about their admissions decisions:

1. UCAS application, including references and personal statement.
2. PAT results
3. Examination results and predictions.
4. Two interviews, one with the candidate’s college of choice (or the assigned first college for Open Applicants), and a second with another college.
5. Candidates will also have the opportunity to present any special factors that may have adversely affected their attainment so far.

There may well be STEM subjects that only look at test scores and not predicted grades, but all applicants should really do their research thoroughly on the specific course they are applying for.

We looked at courses/uni with lower grades for DD1 than initially thought.

The predicted grades were still slightly higher than AS results (wales) - so she got an offer but on the offer day visit after an interview she wasn't expecting they afterwards dropped the grades they were asking. She got a grade lower than that dropped offer but they still took her.

I think the second offer she accepted - her back up actually kept the higher grades than predicted and would have been offered the foundation course.

With DS it's harder to find one course hes looking at -computer science - with lower grades - they all seem to have upped their offers and they get lots of applications. We are partly waiting to see what is AS levels actually are - but he may still apply for one or two course wanting higher grades than he may get - mainly based on DD1 experience.

As long as they’re not doing medicine, dentistry, vet or Oxbridge, it doesn’t matter when they submit as long as it’s before the Jan deadline.

That said, school might have internal deadlines and I’d always advise students to keep a careful eye on their school calendar when deciding when to submit - if they’ve got a load of mocks in Jan do you want the stress of submitting UCAS at the same time?

@north51 I totally agree with you. The point I was trying to make (badly) is that for some subjects Oxford has put in place admissions tests and interviews presumably to avoid the need to reply on subjective metrics like predicted grades. I'm well aware of what MatSci has on its admissions page. I'm also well aware of the algorithm that Physics uses to shortlist and offer. And it makes me wonder what if any weight MatSci puts on predicted A-levels.

@Greenflowery it depends on the course. Eve established from open days that the course that ds wants needs a star a an and it's so oversubscribed that they will only offer to those with predicted grades at that.

Just one more detail to add to the mix about offers based on A level result grades. Some offers will stipulate what subject a particular grade has to be in, another may not. For example DD got two A star A A offers, one stipulated the A star had to be in one particular subject, another said she could get the A star in any subject so do look at the offers carefully to help with identifying any firm and insurance.

It just hit me how important were the end of year exams; as they are doing the predicted grades based in that. university applications had to be submitted in early November as per school calendar. I have been leaving to DD.

I stand corrected - it used to be true but obviously things have tightened up.