School giving ridiculously low predicted A level grades

[basilmum]

Do teachers/schools benefit from giving pupils ridiculously low A level predicted grades for UCAS? My DD's school - a grammar - is predicting everyone really low grades (lower than their achieved grades at end of yr12 and start of yr13) and refusing to change them. They forced parents to sign a form saying that we would not attempt to challenge their grade decisions (legal advice please!). So these kids are now unable to apply to or secure offers from universities that they could reasonably aspire to and will probably actually get the grades for in the real exams next summer - no point in having the grades without the offers...So a lot of these kids are distraught and going to be forced to either go to a lesser uni or take a gap year so they can apply with their achieved grades next year. How does this benefit the school at all? My DD said another pupil overheard a teacher saying that he would get a pay rise if the pupils achieve a higher grade than what he has predicted them. A bonus for it looking like the pupils had progressed under his tutoring. Can this be true? It is beyond appalling if it is true. Ruining kids future opportunities for monetary gain...?

OP how widespread is the issue within the cohort? A few students/ parents who feel aggrieved can make a lot of noise. Is it one subject in particular? Every subject?

It seems as though quite a few schools have massaged their A* and As in their published results recently in order to fudge numbers.

It’s odd no destinations or results. The full A level results and leavers destinations are listed on dc’s state grammar website. Have you asked for it? It’s a list of unis and numbers to each on ours.
Assuming you can’t persuade them to increase grade and they don’t want a gap year then clearing is an option.

The bit about not publishing last year's results does seem consistent with this year's low predictions. Sounds like they had a nightmare last year with lots of students not meeting their predictions and losing their uni places, so they're trying to avoid that happening again?

I can sort of see your point OP.

A few years ago (before covid) dd's GCSE physics teacher decided to grade the GCSE mock exams very harshly. Dd was in the top set group doing triple science and she was given a 4 for her mock exam, one of the highest grades in the year. All her other friends failed including some who had planned to take A level sciences.

Dd herself decided not to pursue science at A level as all the rest of her GCSE's she was predicted Grades 7 & 8, despite having previously thought about physiotherapy and she did arts based A levels.

She actually achieved a Grade 8 in her real exam and her friends in top set al passed with much higher grades but by then they had all deemed themselves to be not good at science.

Fast forward several years and dd is returning to study to do a science based degree, she will have to start with foundation year as her A levels are in the wrong subjects. If only she and her cohort (which was very girl heavy) had not been put off those years before.

I’d also check you are in receipt of full info.
What seems to have transpired at dc’s school with a number is they didn’t work hard yr 12, presumably parents weren’t concerned they were currently working at B in termly reports thinking ucas is 2024 then school have predicted on yr 12. I know in some cases it’s opened a can of worms eg school saying based on evidence it’s a B and it transpires pupil has been getting B or C in assessments, missed timed essays etc and parents wholly unaware. Dc had friends now on much more curtailed social lives where parents have hit the roof. She’s yr 13.

@whatsthatoverthere wrote

Two of his subjects are maths so no wiggle room in terms of marks because it is either correct or it isn't.

That’s not true. Maths papers would be much quicker to mark if it were, but students get credit for showing some understanding in a question.

Look at the first paper here, for example. Questions 2 and 3 are each worth 6 marks. If you don’t get the question fully correct you can get anything between 0 and 5 marks, depending on what you wrote. That’s carefully explained in the mark scheme which follows in the sample paper, and which many students are taught to understand.

@Comefromaway That's the thing, kids really can be put off by these type of things, being misjudged by teachers etc. Some of DD's friends are utterly distraught and depressed that they can't apply for courses or universities that they had wanted to and it has really derailed them in a more major way. I just think it is disgusting that the school are treating them like this, with no consideration for them or their future lives.

They can apply though. With grades in hand. It’s very annoying but not a death sentence. Prove the school wrong.

I am of an era as a parent when predicted grades were not a thing until they were needed. So no one was put off by silly low grades. Pupils might work out for themselves that they were not scientists or essay writers from marks though! Most dc can work out what they prefer.

It's not always appropriate for a year out though. For some subjects such as maths, universities won't accept gap year students. Also having to take a year out can financially affect some disadvantaged students.

Do some universities not accept gap year students? I haven't heard that before. DD and friends are wanting to do medicine and sciences and psychology/criminology, that type of thing. If they take gap years, will they be in trouble?

It's mostly for maths as you need to not have a gap in your study of that subject or else you quickly lose what you know.

It is very, very common for medicine students to take gap years

Criminology and psychology definitely won’t care. Medics do all sorts of things in a gap year.

The only one I’ve seen mentioned for no gap year is maths degrees. Gap years are becoming more common I think as lots need to work and save plus wanting time to make correct decisions re uni choice.
If it truly is all yr 12 and 13 exams, assessments, timed essays at grade A and predicted B then I’d definitely contest with school. I can’t see how school can argue faced with evidence.
I suspect it’s more case of student getting B’s, odd A and school predicting a B and pupil now upset that their laziness in yr 12 is now biting them on the bum. Parents having a go at them and in typical teen fashion easier to blame ‘mean’ school (my dc has a friend in that exact position unable to apply to medicine she’s having a gap year)

@MathsIs I meant it isn't subjective like English lit would be, but I do understand where you are coming from re the working out. This isn't my first child sitting both maths and further maths, in fact maths is done for fun in this house with Ds1, Ds2 and DH. I literally scraped a GCSE C grade on a resit but I understand now why that was because I was lacking in foundational knowledge to build on plus I had an abusive name calling teacher who gave us derogatory pet names. Imagine Stupid, Moron etc. Got to love the 80s. A teacher's lack of confidence in you can massively effect you as shown by the OP's DD.

I do see it’s very awkward but there’s also trading up. Difficult if courses are full though. The gap year can be used productively. Not just treading water.

I think what needs to be looked at is the whole system. I am in Scotland where my son is applying with his grades already which seems much better. Doing it on predictions seems a bit insane

It isn't unusual that the school didn't publish destinations this year. A lot of kids didn't achieve their expected grades this year and its upsetting for them to have it published that whilst they've been talking about their plans to go to a particular university, they actually didn't make it.

A lot of schools are also finally realising that Russell Group isn't everything with so many non Russell Group universities in the top 10 and so they are moving away from that as a stat anyway

My DC's school used to practically gag at the suggestion that a child might apply to a non RG university but they are now talking to the children sensibly about places like Lancaster, St Andrews, Bath, Loughborough because quite frankly its stupid to ranks these universities below all RG universities. Lancaster, Bath, Loughborough St Andrews (once again taking up four places in the top ten in the complete university guide league table for 2024) and Newcastle (30 something) are not in the same league but Newcastle is trumpeted because its Russell Group.

More and more kids are going to be taking gaps years to work and get some money behind them since more and more parents earn too much for their child to get more than the £4.5k minimum maintenance loan but not enough to have a spare £6k+ per annum to fund their child's maintenance.

It is really important for the kids that schools don't over predict. I know parents want the predictions to be high because they want the kids to be able to access the offers but that's no good if they then don't get the grades and they are scrambling to get a place somewhere through clearing. Out of seven in DC's friendship group last summer only 2 of them got the grades they needed to go to their first choice universities. Five missed their offers and didn't get a place at their first choice.

One of them missed a Cambridge place which everyone thought was a sure thing and ended up at the insurance choice (Lancaster - actually extremely happy there).

Three of them missed Durham offers. Durham actually had places in clearing so they thought they would be fine but their clearing places were for the same grades as their standard requirements, they didn't drop grades to fill the places. Out of these, one went to Manchester (insurance) and had some difficulty finding good accommodation (it turned out ok in the end but was stressful) two ended up unexpectedly in clearing and went to Southampton and Sheffield.

One missed her Bristol offer but ended up still in Bristol at West of England since she was desperate to be in Bristol for boyfriend reasons and had a complete nightmare then trying to get accommodation.

Ouch. Just because this year's cohort have got through their 'real live GCSEs' doesn't mean they will do better. My DC sat A-Levels last year. Got four A stars in Maths and sciences without a real live GCSE in sight.

OP it's very unclear whether you are generalising from the particular - in this case a particular group of your DC's friends - or whether you have it on good authority that all grades across the subject board are being predicted 'really low'.

Also if these DC who are intending to read Medicine and to apply to top unis have achieved in line with those ambitions, then they'll have all achieved top grades in 2022 at GCSE. That would create a stark mismatch in the expected trajectory. I'm struggling to understand how a school - so dependent on its progress scores - would trash that essential measure for itself unless they genuinely believed that none of these students are capable of achieving top grades.

I see that your DC is at a poorly led grammar and you say it has poor teaching too in which case I'm curious about the grades the cohort achieved in Y11. Could you link the results anonymising them?

Also, is there any chance of you reciting exactly what it was that parents were asked to commit to in terms of not challenging predicted grades? It definitely sounds very weird. I was never asked to sign a single thing for any of my DC in relation to predicted grades. As it stands, it sounds incredibly draconian.

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2022 A level exams were very different than 2023 look at the stats.

@2024writeanovel to clarify, I meant last academic year. My DC got four A stars in the summer of 2023.

That’s very unusual. Are they ranked struggling by ofsted? Predicted and actual grades are very important to schools and to be as high as possible. However schools need to make them realistic as to what they feel the child can achieve.

are you really sure that the children have all been seriously downgraded ? As to an A is likely correct given the changes, but As to c not.

This, it’s incredibly odd. Including the form to say not to challenge.