School giving ridiculously low predicted A level grades

[basilmum]

Do teachers/schools benefit from giving pupils ridiculously low A level predicted grades for UCAS? My DD's school - a grammar - is predicting everyone really low grades (lower than their achieved grades at end of yr12 and start of yr13) and refusing to change them. They forced parents to sign a form saying that we would not attempt to challenge their grade decisions (legal advice please!). So these kids are now unable to apply to or secure offers from universities that they could reasonably aspire to and will probably actually get the grades for in the real exams next summer - no point in having the grades without the offers...So a lot of these kids are distraught and going to be forced to either go to a lesser uni or take a gap year so they can apply with their achieved grades next year. How does this benefit the school at all? My DD said another pupil overheard a teacher saying that he would get a pay rise if the pupils achieve a higher grade than what he has predicted them. A bonus for it looking like the pupils had progressed under his tutoring. Can this be true? It is beyond appalling if it is true. Ruining kids future opportunities for monetary gain...?

Quite. You just can’t generalise. DS came out with A stars in the summer but at his school they sat more formal full exams for their TAG GCSEs than they would have for the real thing since the school was determined not to ruin its credibility.

One parent challenging their individual child's predicted grades and as a body of parents challenging the policy of low-balling them is not the same thing, and I think need to canvas whether this is the view of other parents of your child's cohort.

My school did this for GCSEs when I was a teenager. I never understood why. I exceeded some of my predicted grades by 3 whole grades - and I was a consistent hard worker, not someone who cram revised at the last minute. I think they thought it was motivating, but actually it had just contributed to my general bitterness and anger about my time at the school and general anxiety about whether I'm good enough as an adult. Obviously, playing this game for A levels there is a lot more at stake in respect of the results.

However, it's getting on a bit to make a fuss about this now - I'm surprised parents weren't acting in September before Oxbridge applications were due if they had been universally low-balled.

The problem is if some schools start predicting lower grades but others schools keep their over inflated grades the students with the lower grades won't stand a chance. I think the whole system is a bit of a disaster.

Oh I've just remembered we had a letter requesting that we didn't talk about predicted grades at parents evening but look at how our child could improve by doing all their homework, attending all classes etc. Well mine did all that already so I thought fuck that and emailed the teacher even before parents evening happened.

I can guarantee that if this is a state school they will not be suing you for breach of contract if you ignore the letter you signed.

I'm also pretty sure however that there is more to this and I suspect those A stars were not representative of full exam condition all paper A levels.

I am a bit puzzled at a grammar school getting no A stars for physics. Surely that must be unusual?

And yes, if they are low-balling, that is very unhelpful. I can see why schools who got it very wrong last year (I am astonished by how badly many judges that) are gun shy, but going too far the other way isn't the solution.

I think it's entirely reasonable to ask the evidence basis for the predicted grades - they're not supposed to be plucked out of their arse.

If a kid sat a full AS exam in Y12, were they graded using the covid grade boundaries, or the post-covid grade boundaries? It's entirely possible the school fucked up with the grading of the Y12 exams and have had to adjust.

UCAS predictions are supposed to be, per UCAS, 'aspirational but achievable'.

Teachers do not get pay rises based on beating UCAS predictions, that would be silly.

My dd outperformed her predicted grades in 2 of her 3 and only didn’t outperform in the other because we badgered the school re it not being fair. The grades did impact her choice if unis but thankfully all worked out. It’s worth politely engaging with the school: advocate for your child. It’s sensible to do so.

This seems incredibly unfair on the entire cohort. The whole system is a mess - a school that over predicts may squeeze in pupils if unis admit them anyhow as happened last year. That’s clearly not possible if they’re doing gap years because of under-predicting.

The whole system needs to be overhauled so they apply with results like most countries.

I don't think whatever you've signed is binding, but you can't force them to change the grades - I mean what could you do? Go up the chain but if it's the head then I don't know where else you can complain to - council education board?
I don't know why so many were caught out last year - everyone knew the boundaries had gone back to pre covid levels. I know in any given year the majority don't achieve their PG, but you want them to be fair.
My daughter was under-predicted but always intended a gap year so is applying now with grades. She has an interview at Cambridge next month - she wouldn't have been able to apply with her predicted grades.

That sounds very odd, DDs school gives very high predicted grades like what the children could get on a perfect day to maximise the chance of uni offers I presume.

@basilmum it is too late for us now as Ds's UCAS is already submitted but this happened to him grades wise and I was left wondering what the hell happened.

Literally had a sheet of paper from his school in July stating his exam mark out of a total mark for his year 12 exams, the grade this translated to and and then a predicted grade for next summer. So 4 A stars. All good.

This was then followed by the usual school report and his predicted grades were again 4 A stars. They stated that they take the exam grade plus all their year 12 assessments taken throughout the year to come up with the predicted grade. It even had a statement saying "This is the grade that the subject teacher is currently predicting the student will achieve at the end of the course in summer 2024".

Ds is early entry and right before his UCAS was submitted suddenly he was 1 A star and 3 As. How could he go from 4 A stars to 1 A star without having sat another test? What new information were they looking at? We asked for an explanation and they ignored the explanation part but increased his grades up to 3 A stars and 1 A and at that stage it was so close to the October deadline we let that go in. To say it was demoralising for Ds was an understatement.

We think it was to do with the year 13 results over the summer and this year group is being downgraded. Two of his subjects are maths so no wiggle room in terms of marks because it is either correct or it isn't. This is an outstanding state school too. We should have followed it up but due to an email failure to deliver as the staff member had changed her email and it went into my spam. I missed it. Then life happened.

I would definitely be questioning the lower grades. And it does benefit them as all their students will achieve their "first" choice uni so they will look good and I am not sure if it will affect their progress 8 score.

@Silkiefloof very high predicted grades isn't good for the students either! You're only allowed to make two uni choices once you've received your offers, and if one or both of those are based on grades you're unlikely to achieve in reality, you're wasting those choices. You may end up turning down an offer that would have been right for you, not getting in to the unis you put as first and second choice, and being left with nothing at all. I know some kids this happened to last year

I know it's really hard for the teachers to get it spot on, as it involves predicting the future, but it should be as realistic as possible.

@whatsthatoverthere but surely prospective parents (if that's who the school are trying to impress) are more interested in which unis the students went to in previous years, rather than whether they got their "first" choice? As a parent I'm looking down the list of uni destinations and hoping to see some high ranking universities.

At my school, big, academic Indy day school, we give optimistic predictions. In other words what that student could get in the best case scenario. It makes no sense to under predict in terms of UCAS applications.

There is a massive readjustment happening

last years cohort were given a rough deal, imo, my DS and his friends who were predicted A stars and As ended up with Bs and even Cs

so I imagine this year tge predicted grades will have been adjusted accordingly

your daughter overhearing teachers bragging about getting a pay rise if pupils do better than predicted grades is clearly…ehm.. making things up. Sorry. DH is a teacher, and this is not how schools operate 😂

it will be fine as uni’s will start adapting too. For example, DS got in with ABB to a Uni that normally asks AAA

it’s nerve wracking but it all comes out in the wash

The teachers absolutely do not benefit from under predicting - sounds like false rumours are spreading between kids there.

Target grades are calculated based on external algorithms and aren’t something the teachers can change- those are what school (and teacher) performance are based on, not internally picked ucas grades.

Overpredicting is really harmful to pupils so it sounds like the y12 data isn’t transferable to a level grades and they have re-evaluated.

Schools want their pupils to get into top unis- they’re really not trying to hold them back!

Ask for clarification as to why the grade seems to have dropped and what would be needed to increase it.

@LimeOrangeLemon around 79% as standard get their first choice on results day due to natural grade curve and some culling due to STEP. The college could boast 98% of our students achieved their first choice uni because they are downplaying their potential and so won't be inaccurate in their grade prediction because not many are falling below their grade prediction, in fact they are either achieving it or going over it, look how great we are.

There will be students getting into top tier unis which they will list, in fact Ds2's sixth form list where everyone goes unis wise and also what big brand name companies those who applied for jobs went to.

@BrendaBicycle you might find that only applied to last year's cohort getting in with dropped grades otherwise lots would have spaces on their courses as a lot were downshifted grades wise on results day. There are threads every year asking which unis are likely to accept a grade drop and also which unis and courses are in clearing too.

Also don't academies work on a bonus pay scheme? From .Gov website "One large chain pays performance bonuses of £500-£1,000 to around 2% of teachers. Another pays performance bonuses to around 3% of teachers, mainly to reward teams. Bonuses at this organisation are usually in the region of £100, but could be up to £2,000" I am absolutely sure that my son's academy school had bonuses for GCSE results.

@JVC24601 "Overpredicting is really harmful to pupils so it sounds like the y12 data isn’t transferable to a level grades and they have re-evaluated." not if the over prediction is 3 A stars and the uni entry is 1 A star and 2 As. Someone on here said at their private fee paying school parents can request their child's grade be increased using the above example, child achieves the 1 A star and 2 As as originally predicted but gets into the uni anyway as it meets their entry requirements. However, on the original prediction of just 1 A star it is likely they wouldn't have been considered by that uni when there is a plethora of 3 A star applicants.

I’m not sure why this is happening but just a few comments on what I’ve read. I’m in a county with grammars. They are all academies. The LA has little to do with them so the schools decide their own policies. In addition, the school’s governors have no influence on operational decisions. Their role is strategic and it’s not their role to get involved with school/parent agreements or grade predictions.

The point I would want clarified is what evidence has been used to predict grades? Just because last years results did not match predictions, are this cohort identical? This cohort should be assessed as individuals. There should be homework/classwork/tests and other evidence to indicate progress. A prediction should not just be based on y12 exams.

As for gagging clause! I think that’s unacceptable and I would be asking for clarification with teachers based on assessment evidence for my Dc. Not previous results at the school for other dc. The school knows grade boundaries have altered so tell students and parents why the predicted grades have been amended but it should be evidence based.

Otherwise: prove them wrong and apply with results next year.

I can only think its so the teachers over achieve targets and makes them look good.

Also don't academies work on a bonus pay scheme?

No.

Also, teachers who underpredict on UCAS would look bad, not good. Accurate predictions are better than incorrect ones.

I guess they had last year's cohort's Yr 12 results. Presumably the same exams as your DD sat in year 12. And their A level results.
So now they have re-evaluated your DD's cohorts year 12 exams based on that. And adjusted predicted grades accordingly.
It's not about last year's cohort being poor. It's about the massive shift in grade boundaries. Which will be replicated this year.
A lot of DS' cohort (selective indy) missed their predicteds by 1 or 2 grades.

They might have been burned in the past by parents forcing a high, unrealistic grade prediction and then going nuts and blaming the school when that isn't achieved and the dc doesn't get into the uni they've set their heart on. So they are trying to be realistic now.

This doesn’t sound anything like my dc’s state sixth form she’s year 13.
They have a written policy re predictions we’ve had emailed. They also explained it at a parents zoom night.
They based predictions off yr 12 mocks and grades achieved that year.
There was then some type of official review process in September involving yellow slips if unhappy with predictions- all the classes did timed assessments in class for grade evidence.
Parents evening at start of yr 13 was we have predicted her x, she’s working at x level in class assessments so that’s what will go on slip.
I followed last results day and have checked and there were no surprises in dc’s subjects or school overall that I can see, virtually all went to first choice uni.
They are clear it’s evidence based and no amount of parents arguing will get you an A prediction just because you need an A for medicine etc.
I’ve seen a few moans and dc has said some are taking gap years as they simply hadn’t put work in yr 12 so predictions are too low for courses they want. If they work and do get grades then apply grades in hand for 2025.
They definitely don’t follow the absolute best case/optimistic scenario as my dc was between 2 grades they plumped for lower. Fwiw I think that is more likely grade.
I’d rather realistic than lots of AAA predicted coming out with BBC and being blindsided.

No, most academies don’t give bonuses, and the very few that do base them on FFT data or equivalent (which is not adjustable by the school), not on UCAS predictions (which, for teacher and school evaluation, are 100% meaningless and ignored).

There is only a plethora of 3A * students of teachers across the country routinely overpredict. It’s not in our best interests or the best interests of the child- we try to predict optimistically as a “best case scenario” but predicting far above what they are likely to achieve just leads to them having no uni place in the end. It’s no better than under predicting.

And just to reiterate, the ONLY incentive for teachers is to give the child the best chance of success. If I were under or overpredicting regularly then my decision making processes, and the data I used, would be called into question. We base them on evidence with some tweaking for what we know of the kids, and that is common across all schools.

basilmum from many, many years as a grammar school parent (eight DC each spent seven years at their grammar), my take would be that this is a fair bit of hysteria whipped up when teachers are simply trying to manage expectations in an era of adjusting grade boundaries to compensate for the past few years of inflated grades. Universities will be adjusting their expectations too.

Parents shouldn't ever be intervening to get grades shifted: the process should be sufficiently explained in reports and any attempt to shift in a particularly hard case should be done by the sixth form student, not a parent. At our school there were (according to the HT) a hard core of parents who would contact the school on a frequent and regular basis to agitate about something or another. It sounds as though there are similar at your own school and the letter is a warning that the SLT don't want to have to bat off these parents yet again. I have to say it does sound faintly ridiculous to 'force' parents to sign. I'm not clear how they can 'force'. It would be illegal for the school to remove a student on the grounds that their parent hasn't signed so it's a toothless piece of paper anyhow. Probably a sign that the parents at your school or maybe that cohort are especially annoying though.