Predicted grade worry

[dazdaz2]

DC year 13 got adjusted grades of 83, 82 and 79 (AAB in AS terms) for chemistry , physics and maths/further maths at the end of year 12 summer exams. School had 1 exam for maths/further maths. I think this is what they use to get the UMS score and his score is 82. He was really hoping to apply to imperial/ucl/Warwick but the predicted grades are A(star)AAA. Astar for maths.

he had thought that his summer performance would get him at least 3 A stars and is almost certain he will not even get an offer at the universities he aims for with these predicted grades. School shrugs and doesn’t say much apparently. Any advise? His gcse results were 9999888776

@Nottscatering - absolutely. The TAGS debacle has really shown that objective exams are the only way to have any credibility in the system ..... assuming they are appropriately marked.

I'm amazed that applying with achieved grades is not more desirable to Uni admissions staff. If someone firms them they are a dead cert bum on seat (aka £££) with no risk, vs potential predicted grade issues (for c80% who wont make their predicteds) on results day and therefore having to accept candidates with a lower grade to avoid having to go into clearing.

Any Uni admissions people able to explain why this happens ?

It’s worth remembering, as the government website reminded candidates before results came out this year, that 80% of predictions are inaccurate…with most being too generous.

When students or their parents want higher grades, they are always sure that THEY will be the one to get the higher grade. In likelihood they actually won’t. So although people on MN can report about their child doing better than their predictions, the vast majority don’t.

As has been said, top tier don’t take students who miss the offer. They simply can’t because they will be over-full. If an offer is AAA and a candidate gets Astar, A, B they are still likely to be turned down on offer day from top unis. If they dont get their Further Maths grade or their STEP requirement, they won’t get in. And of course that’s very disappointing, especially if they then have to go their Insurance offer or through Clearing and can’t get accommodation because they weren’t a FIRM acceptance.

A tier down - very good, but not top notch, might well take students who miss their offer by a grade or sometimes even 2 grades. It all depends on the exact year and how many people actually hit their offer. But again, unless you’ve firmed it, you might not be guaranteed accommodation.

Those pushing to be bumped up to Astar predictions, in the hope of top tier offers, who really aren’t top grade students might well be disappointed Ted come results day. Those who hope to be bumped up to A grade or B grade predictions so they get offers from the lower RG unis, might well find that they get offers and then scrape in with their lower achieved grades.

Early applicants who are Oxbridge applicants?? More likely to be serious Astar contenders as most schools and colleges will be vetting those interested and not encouraging those who’ve had to argue a case in order to get an Astar prediction. But then, every year some Oxbeidge offer ho,dears lose their place when they dont get the grades - more likely at Cambridge where they give more offers but higher ones, than at Oxford where they weed out more in the selection process and give fewer offers, but slightly lower in some subjects…because they feel more sure the candidates will meet them/more likely their internal tests and interviews convince them that these are v good candidates regardless of A Level results, which a rent held as particularly good indicators anyway.

Re state school and private school predicting, I think it varies enormously and you can’t generalise across the whole sector. As a PP says upthread, many top independents aim to be very accurate with predictions because their credibility with Oxbridge is on the line, plus actually high proportions of their students actually get Astar anyway. Some large state sixth forms use formulas which look at several yr12 assessments and boost the best one up by a grade…means often candidates who scraped a low B in just one assessment ends up with an A grade prediction, and often that isn’t achieved. But undoubtedly, some independents do over-predict. Because of the Covid years being in recent memory, and some Indeoendnts really raking up the teacher grades, people mix that up with substantial over-predicting for exams, although they aren’t the same thing.

I think a key message that schools and colleges do give students but they need to hear more loudly and parents need to also u dear stand and reinforce, is how important yr12 is. There is no time for a slow start…assessments and end of year exams and starting to consider UCAS comes round very quickly. They need to work very hard and do well quickly. Most places will have set their UCAS grades by now. Applications are going in every day. They can’t rely on making improvements in yr13 to get the predictions they want…it’s essentially based on yr12 work and they need to grasp that. And of course, what they do in Yr12 is a pretty good indicator of what they will do the following year - there might be some upward trajectory, but work is also likely to get harder. Most of those who were terribly lazy and disorganised in yr12 remain so yr13. Those with weak GCSE grades don’t usually suddenly become A grade students at A Level. Teachers have usually seen multiple years of A Level students and have a pretty good idea of likely outcomes.

But I wholly agree that post qualification application would be better. But it’s not coming any time soon.

Bigfatquirrel, there’s another thread running about predicted grades vs grades in hand. I agree that a student with 3 Astar grades in hand should be getting speedy offers. For the very top courses, for anyone who has one Astar and a couple of As in hand, or less than that, quite simply the uni hope to get more candidates with 3 A star. And yes, many of them with those offers won’t achieve them, so it seems worth it to take a one Astar and a couple of As ‘bird in the hand’ vs waiting for a 3Astar predicted ‘bird in the bush’ who might not get their grades…but apparantly not. However, most unis, outside the top handful will offer to those with grades in hand.

Last year DD was predicted 4A* ( from Grammar school which us what she was achieving) and actually got AAAA so much lower.The summer exams were much mote dufficult than anything they had seen before

The alternative is planning a fabulous, fulfilling year out, a chance to earn money, volunteer, go travelling or whatever floats your boat and allow your DS to find out who he really is.

He must crack on with the academic work now and make sure he walks away from school with a hand of great grades in the summer regardless of predictions - so he can apply to UCAS next autumn with a much clearer picture of where he will get in.

Take a gap year ... advantages to applying with grades in hand.

Not everyone wants a gap year. DC shouldn’t be forced into one due to the variance between schools’ predictions.

There is a disconnect in the system. Generally the private sector over eggs predicted grades, probably because parents are paying customers. State schools are much more likely to be cautious with an ‘it is what it is’ attitude. Such variation is a huge flaw in the applications process.

Agree that gap years really don’t suit all, at all! My DC have massive FOMO at not going at the same time as their friends and point blank refused to consider gap years.

Also agree that the way schools differ in how they predict is super unfair. If you don’t have decent predicteds you don’t get the offers. Waiting a year - sad and left behind - is totally unfair and not a viable alternative.

I shared the FOMO at that age, @Nottscatering so I understand this. But almost all school leavers would benefit from a year of growing up, IMO. If a gap year became the norm, post qualification application would be easy and FOMO would vanish.

Before people say rightly that not everyone can afford this, let me gently broach the idea of a year of (young person’s min wage) paid national service - not necessarily or even primarily military! - as a condition for a more favourable student loan. (Which should be rejigged anyway, IMO). Teaching assistants. Road crews. Council admin and NHS workers. Crop pickers. Factory workers. Care workers. Some of the 1,000,000 ways that Britain is going to hell because we cannot afford to staff the jobs that keep life ticking over in a civilised manner could be addressed.

No one is above a year of said work and the country would be more harmonious if we as a country embraced this value. I wouldn’t want force anyone who felt too precious for this work into it, but I have no problem giving favour to those who do with eg the terms of their loan.

A junior, domestic version of the American Peace Corps. What it needs is an inspirational leader.

@FunicularVertigo Can you point out the research that supports that Funic? Am interested because I have only ever found UCAS's reports on it (detailing the gruesomely high levels of ocer-prediction) but they don't break it down by school type as far as I have been able to find

@Revengeofthepangolins a complex picture of course, but all the more reason why predicted grades should not have so much weight in the selection process.

This report although note that grammars (state) are more in synch with independents than comps.
Page 13

[Across School type
Table 4 uses the predictions from the ordered probit specification to consider whether there is any difference in predictions across the type of school attended by the pupils at age 18. Here we compare those in any non-selective state funded institution, to those in selective (grammar) state schools, and those attending fee-paying private schools for our full sample of respondents.
Among high achievers, where under-prediction is most common, predicting A level grades based on GCSE performance leads to 23% of non-selective state school pupils being under- predicted (by 2 or more grades) – said another way, these pupils end up doing better than expected, given their GCSE performance – compared to just 11% of grammar and private school pupils. Over-prediction is similar across school type among high achievers. This suggests that there are larger differences, or greater amounts of mismatch, between the GCSE and A level grades of high achieving non-selective state school pupils compared to grammar and private school pupils. This finding is similar to that of Murphy and Wyness (2020) that high achieving low SES students are more likely to be under-predicted by teachers. While teacher bias is one explanation of this, another is that, as we find, high-achieving less affluent (or non-selective state) pupils are harder to predict, regardless of the approach.
13
For middle and low achievers, non-selective state school pupils are more likely to be correctly predicted (or predicted within one grade), compared to grammar or private school pupils. 77% of low achieving grammar and 65% of low achieving private school pupils are over-predicted based on their GCSE performance – they achieve grades that are lower than expected given their GCSE results – compared to 56% of non-selective state school pupils.
Across the range of achievement, non-selective state school pupils are therefore more likely to be under-predicted, and less likely to be over-predicted, while selective state and private school pupils are more likely to be over-predicted and less likely to be under-predicted.]

I know someone in a private school who switched subjects at end of year 12 (very unusual but they failed the mock) and the school predicted them an A in the new subject that they went on to complete in one year, before they had even started the course. My DDs state school are super strict and err on the side of caution (unfortunately) with the predicted grades. Problem is, Unis will select the students who are over predicted and may still let them in even if they miss a grade on results day. Those who are predicted cautiously won't even receive a offer. It's certainly a rubbish system...

@Chocolatewolf would be interesting to know what the subject child actually achieved.

The study cited is a bit odd though, isn't it funic, as it seems to identify over prediction by extrapolating from gcse results, not by comparing the predictions to the actuall outcome, which is surely the more relevant comparison ?

@Revengeofthepangolins comparing to actual A Level outcomes is pretty meaningless in recent years though. I wouldn't want to use CAGs and TAGs given the way a number of schools played that system.

In any case GCSE results achieved are the only concrete basis of extrapolation at that point and everything else is conjecture.

For me, the real crux is how many candidates are ' waved through' despite not hitting their predicted grades and apparently that data is unreliable with huge gaps. This is the point where it translates into the wrong people getting the places. If they don't hit their grades and don't get in, it has still potentially done someone else out of an offer but at least they haven't actually got on to a course on false assertions.

Yes, that is I think the most unfair aspect - letting in candidates who miss the tarrif when unwilling to offer to candidates who were predicted or, much worse, had achieved those grades