Predicted grade worry

[dazdaz2]

DC year 13 got adjusted grades of 83, 82 and 79 (AAB in AS terms) for chemistry , physics and maths/further maths at the end of year 12 summer exams. School had 1 exam for maths/further maths. I think this is what they use to get the UMS score and his score is 82. He was really hoping to apply to imperial/ucl/Warwick but the predicted grades are A(star)AAA. Astar for maths.

he had thought that his summer performance would get him at least 3 A stars and is almost certain he will not even get an offer at the universities he aims for with these predicted grades. School shrugs and doesn’t say much apparently. Any advise? His gcse results were 9999888776

Ah! there is hope here. So this means that if a DC does well in the first term of year 13, school may still revise grades based on performance for an application in December.

Are early applications favoured to late ones at universities? An early application is an indication you applied to Oxbridge. Of course no university would admit to this but just wondering if in practice later applications are viewed differently.

Some private organize resit exams to make their predictions very accurate.

DD did horrendously poorly in the end of year 12 exams - we're talking 3Ds and an E. At the time she was going through an awful awful time with a stalky ex and all sorts of mental health issues, which the college have sort of taken on board - not enough we don't feel - They're still not raising them to her capability though, so she's going to wait until the final 'new term' tests they're having, in which she's already getting High Bs; to say they need to be changed.
It's a tough time for all of them who did poorly last year but I do feel they must take circumstances into account

Typically at A Level 80%+ is an A, and 90%+ is an A. So actually at 82 and 83, that’s at the lower end of an A grade but definitely an A, it is a pretty big jump up to the A boundary though.

At my sixth form (6 years ago so not ages ago) they used our AS Grades for our predicted grades but you could go and speak to your teacher if say the uni you want requires A*AA and your predicted grades were AAA. If you can make your case to the teacher, explain how you’re going to really strive etc then they’d basically always agree to set it as whatever grade you need as long as they believe you’re up for it- obviously they wouldn’t agree to change a C to an A but within reason and if the student can express their willingness to improve, they will. My younger sister had the same 2 years ago, and my younger cousin went through this last year and has just started university this year.

It’s one of those things though where if he is really wanting to apply to these uni’s, he needs to go speak to his teachers about the grades, not have his mum ring in. He wants to go to university, he needs to fight these battles because teachers will want to know from him that he is actually willing and able to put the extra work in, and his mum ringing instead of him doesn’t give off that message.

Hi, OP - former Russell Group
STEM admissions tutor here.

@Sandpitnotmoshpit has great advice. My School is in the tier just below COWI so we get a lot of their rejects. I agree with PPs that those overpredicted 4 A stars aren’t the ones getting the offers, especially in STEM, because they aren’t doing well at interview or at pre-interview qualifications such as TMUA or MAT.

I also agree with those of you who say PGs can be biased. But, gently, the PGs of your DS seem to be based on his Y12 marks. Is this not school policy? If his are not calculated in the same manner as other pupils’, that sounds wrong. If everyone’s PGs are based on objective data, I am not sure of your grounds for approaching the school.

I agree that a good mark on TMUA, which DS could choose to have sent, would bolster his application.

The most important thing is that students will do best when they are properly placed academically. I would not presume to say what that means for your DS, but I always want parents to think a bit about what it might mean if their DC squeaks into a degree programme where they may not be as able as their peers. Again, not personal but worth a thought. Best wishes.

thank you. really really appreciate your answer and agree with you 100%.

@dazdaz2 I would still want to talk to the school to see what your son can do to improve his grades. He has time and if he focuses then he could excel. Identifying where to improve on the year 12 stuff isn't a waste anyway. For STEM subjects it breaks down really easy. Get him to look at the papers he sat for year 12 and on the questions where he didn't get full marks he needs to work out why. This isn't my own idea but Ds used this to get the 2nd highest UMS in his school for GCSE sciences. You use the first letter of MARCKS and see if there is a pattern.

Maths error -Did you make a mistake in your maths?
Application of knowledge -You know and understand the content but couldn’t apply it to foreign situation/this question
Read the question - Did you miss a key term such as explain rather than describe because of how you interpreted the question but ultimately you have the knowledge and understand the topic
Communication - You understood the application but the wording you used to communicate didn’t get the marks. Could be specific terminology especially in biology
Knowledge - Is your knowledge weak? Do you understand the concept?
Statements - If it’s 4 marks but you wrote 2 points and you can see that even though you filled all the lines you were lacking in points

Some statistics for you from last year's gov figures, 68% take 3 A levels, 4.6% take 4 A levels so it already puts him in a different category.

77,810 applicants for early entry

610,720 by January deadline which includes that 77,810 early entry

Universities will wait for the deadline as evidenced on MN every year with people waiting but some do offer before January because there are students they definitely want. Ds was emailed by a top tier uni and told that all offers would be out after January so don't contact them and for those exceptional applicants they may offer earlier than that.

It’s also not great when your DC is at a university that is not challenging enough. For all the DC in above their heads, there are an equal number of DC who should be in those places who are somewhere else not being challenged enough.
Given the subjective nature of PGs. And the bias, the pressure, the gaming, the politics etc. I think a DC is disadvantaged if parents don’t push.
I regret the trust that I put in teachers and the respect that I had for the school. I feel like a mug.

@Margrethe Did she consider applying to the unis she wanted with grades in hand instead of going to a uni she really didn't want? Do you want to say what uni she is in now where she is not being challenged and where she wanted to go. What year is she in? Even on 2 A stars that is a lot of open doors for her unless the course she wanted was specifically asking for 3 A stars which are very few I believe.

I agree that underprediction is a big problem, @Margrethe Really the fairest answer is a post qualification applications process. It can be done, but every single stakeholder — schools, examining bodies, pupils, continuing university students, admissions tutors, academics and university staff, parents and the applicants themselves — would have to adapt.

Most people appreciate the fairness and are all for the idea until they realise their own role in making it happen, when it becomes ‘impossible’. But I have participated in working groups that ended up with very positive views on PQA.

I can empathise 100%. So true that a place needs to be challenging. However, I know DCs that went to less challenging places, easily shone and got high firsts and then went onto do excellent MScs and PhDs backed by flying recommendations.

My DDs predicted grades were low and exactly the same as her mock results. I was thinking they'd inflate them slightly? Anyway, they didn't.

Knowing my DD I know she will do better than these grades, but obviously she'll get judged in these which is a shame.

We've talked through the what ifs. If they hinder her this year and she does get better actual results, can't get what she wants through clearing she's prepared to work for a year and then reapply with her actual grades. It's not ideal but it's a way forward.

@poetryandwine totally agreed about PQA - schools are absolutely desperate for this but our perception is always that it is universities and UCAS which are the barrier. And possibly exam boards. No idea how fair this is. @dazdaz2 PQA can be amazing for students if they want a gap year - early application with grades in hand, then work to save money for university etc. I know that universities are not keen on it for lots of STEM courses which I'm sure you've considered.

I am in STEM and think applicants can retain or regain their Maths - that is my colleagues’ main objection to the gap year. But the OP and her DS need to be aware, so thank you for pointing it out, @Sandpitnotmoshpit

I agree we at uni would need to take the lead on PQA and do the most adjusting. But I fear the school and examination calendar would probably need to be tweaked also.

Can I say at the outset that this is not backed up by any proof or validation from school.

My DS has told me that at his school they add in Y12 marks into the school reference for the A Star cohort so the university has confidence in the predicted grades. Never having seen a school reference I have no idea if this is true!! But DS is reporting lots of carry on from kids and their parents trying to get predicted marks uplifted and this is the rumour of how the school argue against it. So it would look sus if you have an A Star prediction for FM but only got 75% for Maths in Y12.

They have about 89% success rate for getting kids in to their first choice universities, so this method must be working somewhat!

Ugh predicted grades - surely surely they must eventually change the system so everyone one applies PQA? Get rid of linear A levels exams for a start.
My daughter (selective private) was predicted AstarAB. We trusted the school's judgement even though I thought she would do better. Come August she gets three A stars. She was always going to do an Art Foundation year so didn't apply through UCAS last year but now can apply just about anywhere - Cambridge is her top choice, her other options her original PG would still be above requirements but the difference is she CAN now apply to C and also has NO stress waiting until August.
So many kids didn't make their grades last year maybe the school is being cautious this year?

DDad was a Cambridge admissions tutor. He said the top private schools were usually scrupulously honest. They couldn’t afford not to be because they had students applying every year so had to be seen to not overpredict.

When I was doing admissions a little while back that still seemed to be true, @DelurkingAJ I wonder if it still is?

I think it depends on the type of school. I'm in a girls school which is very academic but in my experience less happy to push back against parents demanding elevated grades (or anything else really) than the equivalent boys school would be. It's a culture thing.

The lack of a level playing field for predicted grades makes a mockery of the whole process, particularly when some schools play so fast and loose with reality. Bowing to parental pressure is just wrong. It is not fair to the DC of higher ability in schools with more integrity. It is particularly irritating when offer grades are lower than predicted grades as there is no real fall out from the unfair over egging.

Definitely. Some of the stories I’ve heard about the last few years TAGs results have been appallingly unfair as well. As you say, makes a mockery of the whole education system.

Well said.

And to add to all that the crazy increases for remarks - 6, 10, even 15 points added! What is going on with the original marking?

I would add that Uni admissions give no benefit for applying with grades in hand despite only c20% of people meeting their predicted grades. So high predicted grades gets you an offer and then when the grades are not met the Uni takes the dropped results on results day anyway (generally if it's one or two grades). However should you apply with achieved grades one or two below the entry requirement a rejection is likely. The whole system seems to be a joke.

Yep and I really don’t think there’s credit given in the difference between cohorts eg the inflated past few years etc.