Predicted grade worry

[dazdaz2]

DC year 13 got adjusted grades of 83, 82 and 79 (AAB in AS terms) for chemistry , physics and maths/further maths at the end of year 12 summer exams. School had 1 exam for maths/further maths. I think this is what they use to get the UMS score and his score is 82. He was really hoping to apply to imperial/ucl/Warwick but the predicted grades are A(star)AAA. Astar for maths.

he had thought that his summer performance would get him at least 3 A stars and is almost certain he will not even get an offer at the universities he aims for with these predicted grades. School shrugs and doesn’t say much apparently. Any advise? His gcse results were 9999888776

Are the predicted grades based purely on year 12 exam performance these days? When I was doing my A levels 6 years ago I asked if a predicted grade could be raised for my uni application and my teacher said yes.

I think the prediction can’t be lower than performance at the year 12 exam. He is extremely quiet and would do anything to avoid being confrontational. Should I intervene and ask school? Worried this will backfire and school would consider it pushy. But surely 83% for chemistry and 82% for physics is nearly an A star?

Be pushy.

Predicted grades are the gate. If he doesn’t get through the first gate, he won’t even be considered.

DD was under predicted and did not get her first choice uni. Three A*s have done her little good. We were not pushy. We later learned that other parents were.

However there is simply no point pushing for higher grades simply to get offers you then don't reach. Even then those 3 unis would have a plethora of kids with all A* predictions applying and perhaps not getting offers.

The reality is if he isn't achieving A* on the easier year 12 content perhaps the school aren't prepared to consider predicting higher if they don't feel he will do better on the harder year 13 content. How does he intend to persuade them that he can and will? What reason does he give for a poorer than expected performance in year 12.

Perhaps he is feeling under pressure from you if he senses the disappointment that is conveyed here.

Actually, on the subject of predicted, and a question for teachers, how important are the less tangible aspects e.g. how forward/visible etc a student is and if they always put their hand up/do extensions, stay behind in class to show interest etc? If you were to put a % on these intangible (i.e. not hard results) how much would it be worth?

So sorry to hear this, what a dreadful system really. What were her predicted?

You could take MAT, PAT or TMUA pre-entry test for IC, Warick Maths course or other courses. The deadline for registering for these tests is this Friday.

She was predicted 2A*s and an A.
Seems small, but if you want schools like the OP’s DS does, it matters.

Do any of those universities require STEP for offers / entry? That is even more challenging than A levels. So your son needs to think carefully about whether he’d be successful at STEP or whether to apply elsewhere.

Unless it’s changed Warwick will tell you in advance what predicted grades are required for an offer for maths.
I think those are good enough for an offer but not good enough to get in. But just ask them.

Also very interested in the answer to this question!

thanks. its engineering DC wants to apply for. Will the universities automatically receive his pre-entry scores even if the courses don't require them? does he include scores in his personal statement?

It sort of depends how realistic the predictions are.... I work in an independent school and every year we get asked (pushed) to change predicted grades, usually up to an A*. I'm a really experienced teacher and examiner and in the vast majority of cases the students get the grade I originally predicted them. We just change them most of the time as there's no point fighting the parents, but it means the students often get offers they are never going to meet. This is significant for engineering as well because it's one of those subjects where on those courses you have mentioned they will absolutely not be let in if they slip a grade. I think you need to contact the school and ask for some honest answers about where these predictions have come from and what they think your son is capable of. Some schools do underpredict so it's worth asking what tests they use for predictions - we are told to predict what they might get on a good day. I'm not saying this is right, it's just the direction at my school.

Also, your post reads in a way which we often get from students - I want to do this course therefore I need these predictions". Rather than this is what my A Level results will actually be, and therefore I will apply for appropriate courses. This may not be the case for your son but it's a very very common attitude from parents and students.

there are always implicit biases I think. Predicted grades always have a subjective element to them as humans are involved.

yes, it makes a big difference. Sorry to hear about the under-prediction.

To answer the question about bias in predicting I would sort of consider these but in the context of how hard working I think the student is. If they are very keen it often means that when push comes to shove at the end of Year 13 they will do the work. But I would never cap a student prediction if they didn't do these things if they were clever and performed well in assessments.

What did they use for predicted grades? Just year 12 exam performance? My son's sixth form state it is a combination of homework performance, ie how much are they getting correct, class participation, end of topic tests that they do in class and their year 12 exam results. Ds had year 12 exam results listed and then predicted grades but they were given separate grades for maths and further maths.

I think the general rule they go by is if they are performing at an A star level in maths (they do all the A level content in year 12) then they can have a predicted grade of A star for further maths however if they are performing at an A grade level they get a B for further maths. For Ds when he looked at his year 12 maths paper he made stupid mistakes ie misread the question so it isn't a lack of knowledge or understanding, it was stupidity. Can your son identify where he went wrong on his papers? Are his scores actually percentages?

I would go into college and talk to them. UCAS deadline isn't until January so he has time to prove his grade as they will no doubt be doing more tests. I don't believe school just shrugs, your son has probably been told exactly what he needs to do. He just might not be an A star student for maths. At this point some students crumble and just accept it or they work hard at improving and demonstrate their commitment going forward. Of those with 9s at GCSE for maths just under half get an A star at A level, just over a third get an A.

University entry grades are the entry level meaning there will be those applying on higher grades and your son is aiming for the top universities. @dazdaz2 Ds did the TMUA but it was for Cambridge so CTMUA they get given the scores because they pay for it. I don't believe that score is shared with any other uni. Ds's personal statement was in before the test as he was an early entry October deadline and the test was beginning of November.

@happyhippiehippo @Nottscatering at Ds's sixth form it is called "attitude to learning" and they are graded on it. They state successful students do the following - high levels of attendance, active in lessons, high levels of commitment to additional study (there is homework and then a voluntary push yourself part too) and that they seek help when they are unsure or need guidance. The top grade for attitude to learning says it is a student who displays exceptional levels of enthusiasm, curiosity and self-discipline. They are highly organised and always meet deadlines. These students show extraordinary commitment to additional study and assessment preparation. They constantly challenge themselves to improve.

There is also the college ethos for which you can score positive points for (and negative) so arriving on time, dress appropriately, positive attitude in lessons, respect other students and staff (the list is long) and yes this is a state sixth form, outstanding, oversubscribed but their entry grades are 5 x grade 4s. They want to improve every child and give them opportunities. It is a incredible place.

thanks. so parents do push....and what this probably means in the grand scheme of things is that (a good proportion of?) offers are made to those with inflated predicted 4 A stars. But even at Oxbridge/IC the actual offer is often for lower grades such as 2 A stars and 2 As. So those with inflated grades get through the gate and often end up with the 2 A stars required. Those who are quieter, less pushy and less visible get lower predicted grades, don't get an offer but may well end up securing 2 A stars and 2 As at the actual exam.

I don't think actually the ones with 4A* predictions are actually the inflated ones for us. It's usually the ones with AAA who then end up with ABC or something. With Oxbridge, the ones with inflated grades just don't get in in my experience, unless it's one of the unpopular courses (classics!)

Such interesting reading thank you. So if you’re at a private school with a loud, “keen” (btw keen doesn’t equal shouts about it, plenty are keen but shy so keep quiet) kid you’re grand for a good predicted grade, a quiet shy kid in a strict state school, not so much.

Very unfair.

Yep! I remember seeing Mary Curnock Cook speak a while ago (she was head of UCAS at the time) and she showed us a graph of how much independent schools over predict and state schools the opposite (on average of course, it won't be like this everywhere). It was sobering.

My DS is in the same boat as Op's DS, he improved a lot from beginning of Y12 to the end of Year exams, and I' absolutely sure he will be much better with his actual A levels. Just wonder how can me "push" techers to increase his predicted grades (actually only one)?

exactly my thoughts....sigh.

Back to my original point though - even if the grades are inflated they won't get in if it's a super competitive course and they miss the offers or it's Ione with testing/interview. Your conversation with the school needs to be about getting the bottom of the mismatch between your son's ambitions and the schools assessment of his capabilities rather than just pushing. Where he goes to school is also very significant in contextualising his GCSE results - these would be top at some schools and bottom at others! There are probably 30 students a year in my subject who get a 9 at GCSE who wouldn't get an A* at A level.