Predicted grade disapointment - how does that affect applications?

[landyland]

My dc has been trying to get their predicted grades up from BBB to ABB as this gives more scope for uni applications - A for the subject they want to study (Business). The school won't budge and are sticking at BBB, despite recent assessments coming in in the 70-80% range. I feel they might be being a bit over-cautious due to recent controversy (private school) and they are capable of getting ABB.

Should we only apply to universities that state BBB or below? Would an application to a uni that states ABB be a completely wasted slot, given it's going to be a hard year for university applications? And given that his reference will, presumably, say that he is close to the B/A border for 2 subjects, including Business A level?

And advice welcome as he is feeling very demoralised and thinks that he won't get any offers now.

Cambridge University don't systematically use contextual data to make offers at lower grades (unlike some other universities).

@jgw1
Well I couldn’t think why they would lower the tariff other then for this reason.

No .not making lower offers. Standard offers. butrealising that predicted grades may be in correct based on other sources of information

They test though and interview. Different process.

The whole system of offers depending on predicted grades is a mess. DS had his heart set on a particular course at a particular uni which has a standard offer of AAB. The school predicted ACC (even though he got a B, one mark off an A, in the mock for one of the C subjects and a high C in the other C subject). We contacted the uni, they said they would not make an offer with that prediction. Luckily he was having tutoring at an exam centre and they let him apply through them instead. The tutor felt he was capable of AAB and was happy to predict those grades. He applied and got the offer. And in the exams he got AAB and secured his place. If we had left it to the school he simply would not have been able to go to the university he wanted, even though he was capable of meeting the entry requirements, all because the teachers at his school were so inflexible with their predicted grades.

@Bovrilly Which year did your DS sit A-levels?

@jgw1 2022

@jgw1 (why do you ask?)

My children's school just uses the mock grades to predict. It was accurate for my dd, but she didn't have tutoring. It's probably harder to predict if they have tutoring which is obviously designed to up the grade higher than what they would have achieved under their own steam.

As a teacher when I was making deciding on predicted grades for the 2020, 2021 and 2022 cohorts I had no idea what the proportion of each grade would be. For 2020 cohort we of course had no idea that the year would change so much. For 2020 and 2021 the government were so slow in deciding what they were doing with exams and the proportion of each grade it was more or less entirely a stab in the dark - on the absence of other information we had to do as we did pre-pandemic.

Thanks for this thread OP. I’ve been thinking about starting a similar one a few weeks so this is relevant to me (well DD). I have a question so hope OK if I piggyback on this!

Will come back and post more properly when I’ve got my laptop.

That's interesting @jgw1 thanks.

I couldn't understand why when he got a B, one mark off an A in the mock, they would only predict a C. They seemed to be saying that their own mocks were such a poor predictor that they couldn't be relied upon. The teacher couldn't explain that either - he said at parents evening that he was really pleased with the mock and that DS should get an A! I never got to speak to the head of dept who decided on the grade (but didn't teach DS), in spite of asking several times for a meeting. When I contacted his personal tutor about it she denied she was his tutor and wouldn't speak to me at first either.

It was so frustrating having his future in the hands of such muppets, he was so upset and demoralised. The whole thing completely coloured his younger sister's view of the school and she couldn't get out of there fast enough after GCSEs. To add insult to injury she did so well that they congratulated her on their website - but spelled her name wrong 🤦‍♀️

Ah that was cathartic - end of derail, sorry OP!

@Bovrilly
It is just evidence that the school is one dimensional and not inspirational. Never mind about aiming high! More like keeping students in their place.

The teachers should have loads of info about a DC by the time they come to make predictions. Even if it’s another teacher, they really do have evidence forwarded to them. No teacher that knows a Dc should be absent from the decision. It’s important. Most schools over inflate! Even with predictions (where a high percentage is wrong) that are too low, Dc can afford one or two higher options on ucas. It’s inevitable some teachers don’t do thd job well enough and don’t take all the evidence into account. Just looking at mocks is lazy in my view and it’s what was done in the last century!

If they have proved they can do it in their mock, then.....

My ds predicted A star, A, B and has fallen hard for a university with BBB standard offer.
Likes the course, attitude of staff he met, campus, proximity to London, etc.
He will discuss with school but will ultimately go his own way.
It was a surprise to him as initially a reserve choice...
He also has an A star in his EPQ.
Not sure what my point is here...but have others had similar?

Year off and apply with the actual grades?

Check in case things have changed but you used to be able to submit less than 5 choices initially and then add the extras later. One of mine did this.

I think the point is, is the BBB uni somehow an invallid choice for someone predicted an A* and should he be aiming 'higher'. If you look at the drop out rates (published by the 3 uni guides) I would say no. Far better for them to be somewhere where they are happy and likely to give it a good go I'd say. I work with a girl at work who got a first from a uni that many would turn their nose up at on MN. She says all anyone talks about at interview is that she got a first and nobody seems to care that it is from a non RG uni.

I am sort of with you TrustyLion. In fact, the university he likes seems to be well respected on the subject he wants to do and has an excellent reputation for graduate employability. [According to uni tables].
I think he will go with his gut [having also done his homework]. He is deferring so can change his mind after results but doubt will be because of grades but if something seems more suited to him.

Good for him. I admire his attitude and not being swayed by out-dated assumptions. I think the world of higher education in the UK has changed immensely since most MNetters went to Uni and there are some very out of date ideas floating around.

An example I always like - Abertay University in Dundee. Most people on MN would be horrified if their child applied there. However, it is acknowledged as one of if not the best place to go for video game design and management courses (highly lucrative industry) and has pretty much 100% in-industry employment figures.

The woman I mentioned with a first in Business from an ex poly uni is mid twenties and earning almost 200k a year. Not that money and earnings are everything but it seems to be the yardstick by which MN judges university admissions. My friend's son is the same age and university year. He is a Physics teacher and, whilst very satisfied by his job and enjoying it, and also being quite well-paid for that profession, he earns a quarter of what she does with his 2:1 from Cambridge.

Things aren't as black and white as people make out. Your life isn't over if you don't go to a top ten university. Or indeed if you don't go to university at all.

I agree TrustyLion. I will keep you posted!
The 2 universities he liked best are non Russell Group.
He particularly liked this one as there seemed to be a passion about his subject and also more contact time than other universities and he feels that would suit him. Campus is beautiful as well.

Russell group being better that the others is a very clever marketing ploy by the RG universities. There is no standard that has to be reached to join, no checks on quality. It was set up as a lobby group by research intensive universities. Only after that did they start to market themselves as ‘highest quality uni for undergrads’.

That is not to say that RG are not good unis, they are, but they aren’t exclusively the best unis.

Two non RG that are very highly ranked and St Andrew’s and Bath.

Look carefully at courses, what modules are offered, what careers follow from that and go from there. Remember prospectus are like holiday adverts - they are tying to sell to you, and will always put a positive spin.

He can apply for any he likes. Having predicted grades above the standard offer may make him more attractive. Some will be flexible on results day to accommodate the odd grade slip, some won't.

It is interesting about Russell Group, isn't it?
Ds was thoroughly unimpressed with an RG course talk he went to that seemed to put no real effort in but did emphasize that they were RG and thus good for the cv...lazy, ds thought.