Predicted grade disapointment - how does that affect applications?

[landyland]

My dc has been trying to get their predicted grades up from BBB to ABB as this gives more scope for uni applications - A for the subject they want to study (Business). The school won't budge and are sticking at BBB, despite recent assessments coming in in the 70-80% range. I feel they might be being a bit over-cautious due to recent controversy (private school) and they are capable of getting ABB.

Should we only apply to universities that state BBB or below? Would an application to a uni that states ABB be a completely wasted slot, given it's going to be a hard year for university applications? And given that his reference will, presumably, say that he is close to the B/A border for 2 subjects, including Business A level?

And advice welcome as he is feeling very demoralised and thinks that he won't get any offers now.

Instead you have to reject your offers and go through clearing

Adjustment does not exist any more. The only way you could do it now, is to reject your firm and insurance choice and take your chances in clearing.

We knew in autumn 2021 what the grades profile in the summer of 2022 would be, so that is not really a good excuse.
The proportion of applicants that were deferrals was higher in 2011 and I don't remember universities having a problem with accommodation then.
If one university has made more offers that have been accepted than they have accommodation for, I really struggle to see how it anything other than the universities fault.

I had this problem a long time ago - predicted grades were BBA I think, and ended up with AAB (As in different subjects and one would be an A* now as I got nearly full marks).
I got a late offer from one RG uni but accepted offer at another well respected uni which asked for lower grades, but I wasn’t very happy there at times. With hindsight, it would have been better to apply with my grades and take a gap year.
best of luck!

Yeah Adjustment is not available anymore annoyingly - why? I guess because the top unis are oversubscribed.

The idea of going through clearing now if they over achieve is ridiculous. I have looked at the stats for universities that went to clearing in 2022 for this course none of the top universities that state AAA were in clearing and only a couple of the AAB ones were. Unless you are overachieving from B/C to A/B there will relasitically be nothing in clearing 'better' than the offer you hold, if you judge better as higher ranked uni.

Is there a way to look at which courses were in clearing in 2022 rather than which university?

Adjustment doesn't exist because it was pretty much never used.
Now of course we could have a discussion on the merits of post qualification admissions, or the variations on that which would be possible.

Pretty much never used because there was pretty much never anything better in clearing I guess?

What's interesting to me in this, my first foray into UK HE as a parent, is that every L6 and U6 kid I've spoken to about this in the last couple of years when they are first figuring out how the system works has gone - "wot, you mean we have to apply before we've done our exams and got the results, wft!"

And they're right. It is a weird system. There is nothing else in life you apply for - jobs, mortgages, buying houses etc where you don't go in with your cards on the table. Post qualification admission without having to take a whole year out (or everyone taking a whole year out) sounds like a great idea on paper. Why don't they start University courses in January for example. Results in August. Universities then have 5 months to process - which they wouldn't need anyway as everything known, no over- offering, no hedge betting, amount of accomodation required clear - kids start in January.

Lots of reasons! Amongst which what the fuck do quarter of a million unemployed 18 year olds actually do? Do their parents get extended CB? Can they claim UC? Are there enough NMW jobs to go round? What about kids from abusive backgrounds or in care who are forced to stay where they are for another five months? What about subjects where a gap is a disadvantage? What about competing on a world stage for international students when the rest of the world's unis start in autumn?

Mortgage offers are made in advance btw - you get an offer in principle. It's not a guarantee. That come when the lenders surveyor has approved the property as suitable.

Challenge the school, by email and F2F follow-up. There is too much at stake. The recent tests attest to an uplift in performance

If UK based Dc think you apply after exams heaven help them! Where have they been? In a bunker? We’ve had this system for generations!

No you've misunderstood. They think it's a stupid system when they realise after GCSEs or whenever that that is the system. They know you can only apply after results if you take a gap year. I find it interesting that they immediately recognise how bonkers it fundamentally is to have their future direction decided on predictions. Of course there are many practicalities involved now so I'm not suggesting an alternative, just wondering if anyone in the industry has given any serious though to other ways of doing things, given that marking and a lot of the admin in admissions must now be benefiting from time savings with use of algorithms etc and a lot of course seems to start in October now. I know that human admissions officers and exam markers will always be involved at some point of course but surely this is less a bit less labour intensive than it used to be?

If anyone is really interested in the post qualifications admissions debate, there was a government consultation on it that reported in February.

There is no easy solution that works for everyone, and the consultation which was necessarily UK centric did not cover the effect on overseas students, which may well be considerable in a global market.

www.gov.uk/government/consultations/post-qualification-admissions-in-higher-education-proposed-changes

All the universities i have had dealings with (4 DC now!!) have said that they know predictions are more often wrong than right so allow a bit of leeway. I really don't think it will mattert

@User84
Some will. Bums on seats is important. Others are vastly over subscribed and don’t need to consider anyone who doesn’t make the grade. It totally depends on course and university.
@jgw1 2011 was before the cap was lifted. Different era!

I am on my 4th dc through the process now, and all the universitioes know predicted grades are very often wrong.All the ones i have heard talks at say they allow 1 or 2 predicted grades below to allow for this.
I don't really think it will be a problem

What's interesting to me in this, my first foray into UK HE as a parent, is that every L6 and U6 kid I've spoken to about this in the last couple of years when they are first figuring out how the system works has gone - "wot, you mean we have to apply before we've done our exams and got the results, wft!"

Kids in L6 & U6? that's completely made up bollocks!

Kids at the end of yr 11 have already been told by their school all about the UCAS process and are clued up. They're not left stumbling about in the dark! and there are tones of information online e.g thestudentroom
By 1st term of L6, they are working hard to ace their exams by November/December because they know their predicated grades are going to be based on these mocks/assessments.
By the end of L6, most schools have already determined what the predicted grades for their students are. By end of 1st term U6, many would've submitted their UCAS forms and started getting offers.

I know these timelines also vary according to individual schools but they are not that too far of, certainly not to the extent of what is being claimed in the above post.

@user29 Sorry tagged wrong user before. I’m afraid what you say is total ?!X? Simply not true! Competitive courses and universities are not generous. They are not recruiting universities. They are selective. Try getting into Oxbridge with 1-2 grades below! In your dreams. Ditto quite a few others and very competitive courses like medicine.

So in 2011 when there was a cap on the number of places in England (note there still is in Scotland for Scottish students) there was a higher proportion of deferred entries, and yet no one thought that was a problem.
Since 2011 some universities have expanded well beyond the number of students that they can actually cope with and consequently the student experience has declined markedly at those universities - see for example reports of accommodation for 1st years being in different cities.

No. Less of an issue because there was a cap. Yes, expanding has caused issues. I’m for reducing the sector and moving Dc to do HNC type qualifications. However Dc snd parents expect a university education. Maybe they shouldn’t snd it should be more selective?

Can you not do English comprehension? Kids in L6/U6 now ........ First figuring out the system a couple of years ago etc. Do you not think I know what schools say in Y11 given I've just told you I have a kid in sixth form applying for university now?

Your unecessary rudeness on my polite thread asking for a range of opinions from people that have more experience than I do in UK HE make you look like a right dick. I hope you're not in university admissions!

well, this included Cambridge, Bath, Durham so......

Not buying? You should listen to yourself. This is not an entertainment thread for your amusement. Get off my thread and get out more. Your contribution is not welcome.

@user29 As I said. Depends on course! Cambridge making lower offers? Only Contextual surely?