Predicted grades under minimum course requirements

[Candleabra]

DD received her predicted grades that will go on her UCAS form today. A star, A and B
They’re based entirely on her mock grades (they were all given a previous years a level paper for each subject)
Shes been getting high marks throughout the year but she had a bad second paper in the B subject which dragged the mark down, and is now devastated as she doesn’t have the grades to apply for the top unis who will all require an A in the third subject.

Is there any point in applying if you’re slightly under the required grades or is it a wasted choice?

Has she spoken to the school/ subject lead. If it is just one grade short they may bump it up for her.

They won’t. It seems very unfair but that’s just how it is.

Most importantly, what is the course and where. Competitive ones will have entrance tests which will almost always trump fantasy predictions.

Several solutions come to mind.
1 Entrance test etc makes predictions irrelevant. She gets offered if it goes well.
2 Most schools can be persuaded to offer a test at the start of year 13 to convince them that you're warranted a change. She won't be the only one asking, however the change can be down as well as up. Or you could just persuade them directly if she has particular USPs they're aware of.

1. Do as well as she can and either use Extra or Clearing or take a gap year with grades in hand.

It’s to do maths. She’s not interested in the super selective. Oxbridge, imperial Warwick etc.

she liked Manchester, Bristol Birmingham all want better grades than hers.

Frustrating as she’s so capable just had a bad day. But she has plenty of other really good options, just need to manage expectations.

Is she eligible for a contextual offer? This lowers the minimum grades required for the course. Check with each of the Unis.

Also, some top Unis offer the course with a Foundation year that has lower grades to get in, but you end up with same degree at the end.

No she isn’t. It’s not a great college but not on the list. The school she did her GCSEs at did score in the bottom percentage for exam score but that doesn’t appear to be taken into account for uni offers.

I don’t think she’d want to do that. She’s more than capable. I just feel like there have been so many barriers for her. Her dad died whilst at school, then covid and she’s done so well really . It seems a shame to have so many doors close already.

What was the B in? She will have 5 places so could use 2 as "aspirational" and then 3 as realistic (i.e likely to meet her grades).

Maths has one of the highest (A* & A) at A level, think it's over 50% so they have to select from the highest grades/and entrance tests.

I know it's disappointing but that is the nature of exams...some students get an offer that matches predicted and then miss by one grade on results day. She has the opportunity to do better on actual exams and may trade up

This has happened to my dd too. A gap year is an outcome dd is seriously considering. Applying in a year’s time with grades in hand.

Her Dad dying while at school is certainly worth discussing as something to be put in her reference. You say the college isn't in the list for contextual offers, but how about your home postcode? Does the college not often send pupils to the RG universities? Are you or her father non-graduates? Is she from an under represented minority? Contextual offers are based on a lot more! Some universities have summer schools, attending them will lower your offer. Doing an EPQ will lower her offer. Look at foundation years at those universities ( 4 years rather than 3) which will have lower offers. Rather than wasting an application I would email those universities ( find the email address for admissions tutor directly for maths) and ask, would her application be considered?

Also, and I know this sounds harsh, if her predicted grade was inflated optimistically, and she got in on that basis, would she struggle to keep up once there? Or was her mock mark more of a one-off?

Does she have exams again in year 13 before Christmas? If so could you ask for her predicted grades to be based on these rather than the ones she has just sat and go all out to get As? She could then apply to Universities with those grades rather than the ones she has just sat. DS did this and I think a few others in his year and were able to get their grades up for uni applications.

B was in further maths which is why it’s a problem. I understand everyone thinks their kid underperformed and is due a better grade etc etc. but i don’t think she’d struggle. Really was a once off.
But the advice to email her preferred unis to ask is a good idea.
She always seems to be just on the edge of a contextual offer. There were no concessions at all for her dad dying. But anyway- she’s happy and healthy so need to keep things in perspective! They’re good grades so I’m sure she will find a place to be happy.

Is the predicted B in maths? And all the universities want A? If so then it could well be a wasted option.
If the universities want AAA but maths is either the A or A star then she should definitely still apply. They probably won’t give her a reduced offer but just their standard one. Some universities allow the A star to be offset against the B. You could ask admissions depts at the universities she’s considering how likely they are to offer - Birmingham do this online. Tell them the actual subjects and predictions.

Sorry! Dreadful wifi so delayed posting the above. Are the universities wanting FM?

A gap year is an outcome dd is seriously considering. Applying in a year’s time with grades in hand.

I know that some universities don't like the student to take a gap year if they are studying maths.

I heard that too.

That’s good advice thank you. Yes the A star is in maths

@Candleabra
Just a very quick look and I can see Exeter, Sheffield snd Leeds are all possible with those grade predictions. Also Edinburgh, Nottingham possibly, Birmingham possibly, definitely Liverpool, and maybe Lancaster. I would have thought this was a very decent list and nothing to worry about. Yes, she might have to swerve a few favourites but she’s spoilt for choice really! Southampton reduce the offer if she does STEP, and she’d probably walk into Cardiff!

Also, would she consider Maths and something alien to maths? Accounting? Management? Stats? Something more applied?

Get them to re mark it

This was asked last week on WIWIKAU and there were lots of suggestions. She should still apply for her top choices.

Bristol offer contextual based on Widening Participation. So if she's first in the family to do a degree or sometimes on postcode.
It's worth applying as they might give her an offer. Even if they give her an offer of 3As, she might achieve that.

Definitely try emailing the admissions team and ask the question about an A* off setting a B.
My daughter emailed prospective universities regarding grades they would be prepared to accept.

College and sixth form is only one factor, did you check your post code on POLAR?

Oh my goodness so sorry for your loss. However, that does mean she should put in an extenuating circumstances letter on UCAS regarding her fathers passing. This too can lead to a contextual offer.