Predicted grades under minimum course requirements

[Candleabra]

DD received her predicted grades that will go on her UCAS form today. A star, A and B
They’re based entirely on her mock grades (they were all given a previous years a level paper for each subject)
Shes been getting high marks throughout the year but she had a bad second paper in the B subject which dragged the mark down, and is now devastated as she doesn’t have the grades to apply for the top unis who will all require an A in the third subject.

Is there any point in applying if you’re slightly under the required grades or is it a wasted choice?

Odd to set the mark on one exam if work in class consistently been higher level.

We had that earlier in yr12 'all your grades were A except one B, so we thought giving a B would be a bit of a kick.'

We don’t know how this particular school marked or set boundaries for these papers they have just sat, so to say that their prediction process is ‘nonsense’ is daft. We don’t have enough information to base such a comment on.

Schools set Yr12 exams differently. Some will use full papers from previous years, but most won’t, because the full course hasn’t be covered yet. Most will cobble something together based on exam questions which the students are arable of doing at this point. Then they have to set grade boundaries. Some will use the boundaries from 2019 as the last exam year, but they might choose all kinds of variations - something more generous in light of students being Yr12, or actually more difficult if the paper cannot yet reflect the full difficulty of a full A Level paper. We simply don t know what this school did. Their boundaries might be set to reflect the fact that progress will be made and with that in mind. It’s impossible to know.

Lots of people on this thread have had knee-jerk reactions - saying the school in too mean, saying complaints must be made, contact with unis be made, requests for extenuating circumstances etc etc. It’s all too much too soon.

The girl only got her predicted grades yesterday. She was disappointed and reacted to them. Today and tomorrow she is bit more balanced in thinking bout it. Op was upset by the grades and DDs reaction. She had a standard response of feeling a bit panicked. And now already more info is coming out. It’s become apparent that whilst DD has been doing well on the course generally, there is a section she has found hard. Op didn’t know that. Conversations with DD to pin down exactly what her attainment has been through the course, plus info bout grade boundaries, how they compare to real A Level boundaries etc etc are all needed to give some context to these grades. A clearer sense of the school policy on predicted grades is needed too, and quite what their policy is about firming up grads before ucas forms go off.

Getting summer work to do and working on areas of difficulty and doing a re-take - all excellent steps which will help boost knowledge and also show school she is serious about improvement. These steps give her the best chance of possibly getting a boosted grade….if that’s realistic for her.

Speakimg with school in September is probably a good idea. If anything remains unclear about where boundaries were set, how these relate to genuine boundaries of the past and factoring in space for progress, it can all be discussed. Chances are the school always adjust some grades. It won’t necessarily have to be a fight, but a conversation.

Looking at unis now over the summer and considering courses, it would be good to be shortlisting both those that need the higher grade and also some that need a B in FM. When applying, it’s always good to have at least one with the lower grade anyway. Anyone can have a bad day in the exam…and those are the final marks. In actual fact, less than 20% of predicted grades are accurate and the vast vast majority of them are over-predictions. It’s worth remembering. And whilst it’s true that if you have an offer and don’t achieve it, the Uni might take you, they also might not.

There can be a way forward with this. The important thing for DDs well-being t the moment is to feel she’s taking some kind of control. Getting extra work, organising a re-sit, tackling areas of difficulty - it’s all steps she can take to feel a bit more in control. Good stuff. And as OP says, she hadn’t got the full pic yesterday. All of Maths wasn’t actually going quite as well as she’d thought. Often there’s a bigger picture and quite often, there is something in these disappointing predicted grades - schools don’t look to downgrade students or diminish their students….in fact the reverse is true. Schools are notorious for over-predicting and being too optimistic. So when a lower prediction comes in, rather than parents being furious or sure the school is out to ruin the chances of their child, there’s often more to it.

It won’t have to be a fight. Communication is what will be needed to establish the situation. But also, being realistic is important. Teens need to choose unis and courses based on what they are likely to get, not on where they want to go and then have the grades predicted to fit that. Parents need to remember that too. Not everyone can get the top grades or have offers from the top places.

@WombatChocolate
That's good advice. Lots of the universities I listed won’t require A or even A at FM. They know lots of DCs don’t take it! They don’t require FM at all. A at Maths or A. The universities originally listed by the OP are competitive enough to want FM. Others she’s looked at later (Birmingham and Liverpool) don’t. Most of the ones I listed would be great no 2,3,4 or 5 choices. Maths is not hugely competitive everywhere. First option could be the stretch choice. You don’t know unless you try scenario. But this is a lot of fuss to get a place at Manchester or Bristol as opposed to Sheffield, Leeds, Lancaster, Exeter or Birmingham! Or looking for joint honours.

??? Not sure where bold came from! Apologies.

@TizerorFizz No criticism intended - a list of all Joint Hons degrees involving Maths would be too long, and mostly useless for the DD. I agree the advice above from @WombatChocolate is very good.

I would only say that clearly some schools are harsher than others when making their PGs. This was the subject of some publicity a few years ago, and all admission panels know how to informally calibrate the PGs from their main feeder schools. It can be tricky when you get a rare application from a school that doesn’t send many pupils to uni. There is evidence that these schools often predict low.

What I would suggest is her working really hard at the further maths over the summer and asking the teacher if they will consider raising her grade if she shows she has improved-do they do mocks in November? She has until January to apply so time to show improvement.

The other thing is that if she gets a good mark on the MAT paper then that may be enough to show that she's good enough.

The other thing she can do would be if she does get a higher mark, then she can potentially phone universities on the day and ask if they'll take her. She does then have to release herself into clearing, which has a risk though.
They were doing something called "adjustment" where if you scored higher than your offer by an amount then you could apply for better places, but unfortunately they've stopped that this year because they hardly got anyone using it so it wasn't worth doing it.

Id still apply if I were her. Unis know predicted grades aren't an exact science.

@Candleabra
I wouldn’t apply to 3 wanting above predicted grade but 2 might be ok. Use the other three wisely. She really does have some great choices. I wouldn’t leave it until January either. Lots of schools hate this.

@poetryandwine
No offence taken! It’s sometimes hard for students to look at less obvious courses.

Bit freaked out by this, my dd did badly on one of her end of year 12 exams but we thought these were ‘mock’ mocks? They do actual mocks in November which is then what the predicted grades go on?! If it the pg is on the year end marks my dd is stuffed!!

Each school does them differently @BanditoShipman anyone applying for Oxbridge or medicine/ dentistry etc. has to apply with predicted grades by mid October. Hopefully though your dd has plenty of time to work on her subjects over the summer.

Bristol don’t take parental education into account for contextual.

There’s also TMUA which a fair few universities take into account and is sat in November with the results out a few weeks later from memory. It’s sat about the same time as MAT but you don’t get MAT results until January so close to application cut off. She will need to do practice papers if she decides to go this route.

It is worth a quick call to a couple of admissions departments anonymously I feel to get an idea of how they will respond to her particular circumstances. I called Southampton as DS has been unwell. They said if mitigating circumstances are on the reference then although they don’t give a lose offer they will be more flexible if grades are missed.

Have you checked Bristol's specific list as about 40% schools qualify for contextual offers.

The TMUA is earlier this year - 18th October - as is the deadline for registration.

www.admissionstesting.org/for-test-takers/test-of-mathematics-for-university-admission/

www.admissionstesting.org/Images/302050-courses-accepting-tmua-2022.pdf