Predicted grades under minimum course requirements

[Candleabra]

DD received her predicted grades that will go on her UCAS form today. A star, A and B
They’re based entirely on her mock grades (they were all given a previous years a level paper for each subject)
Shes been getting high marks throughout the year but she had a bad second paper in the B subject which dragged the mark down, and is now devastated as she doesn’t have the grades to apply for the top unis who will all require an A in the third subject.

Is there any point in applying if you’re slightly under the required grades or is it a wasted choice?

OP, as she's not going Oxbridge, she doesn't need to submit her UCAS form until January. Surely the school offer another chance to bump up the predicted grades before then? Most schools would do another set of exams in Sept and / or again in November. There's a long time between now and January - it seems absolutely crazy that their grades are 'set in stone' now. I've never heard of a school that does this.

DS' school did provisional predicted grades before the summer, to encourage those who were not quite 'on target' to put the work in. Then there were more exams in Sept for the 'real' predicted grades. But even then, there were more optional exams in November for those who needed to bump up a grade or more.

In your DD's case, it's only one subject. I would get on the school's case and demand a resit in Sept or some point next term. Just keep on at them. This seems ridiculous to me.

Have you actually spoken to school about the predicted grade?

Don’t decide this is a done deal if you haven’t. Email to ask for a discussion with the Head if Maths and Head of Sixth. You might not get that meeting before summer, but if you insist in having it, you will get the chat. There is usually some flexibility, even if they say there isn’t.

If this really is a one-off and every other piece has been the higher level, you will have a good case. You need to check with her if that is really the case. Is it really that she has been the higher grade for Maths but FM has been a lower grade throughout…or simply they haven’t done much on it yet and so actually it’s all based on Maths and not FM, but essentially they know where her limits lie? So check with her first that he performance at FM really has been consistently higher, and if so, definitely ask for a chat. There’s nothing to lose.

For what it’s worth, my friend’s DD for A in FM and is doing Maths at Bristol now. Hates it. Finds it very inaccessible and says the vast majority do too - all have FM A/A.

Sorry, dont know why that last but went bold.

Not spoken properly to school yet. Just floods of tears yesterday so it’s all s bit raw. Will be able to talk to her properly over the summer. If it’s Jan for applications (I thought it was October!) then hopefully there’s plenty of time to bump the grade up.

@WombatChocolate interesting re: maths at Bristol. She liked it (and the city) but it would be a big journey from us, so she’d have to really love it to go.
DD liked Birmingham a lot. And Liverpool. Neither out of reach I think.

However, that does mean she should put in an extenuating circumstances letter on UCAS regarding her fathers passing.

I asked about this at the time, they said no concessions for exams or otherwise unless it’s very recent (within 3 months)

I would try to get hold of school today, even if briefly, if you can just so you can formulate a plan for the summer. Just the answers to a few of the questions raised here would help - what does she need to do to raise the grades? When would they review it? Is there a chance of a resit?

She can also contact the universities over the summer and discuss her extenuating circumstances. Also try to understand whether she is enjoying maths still.

Odd to set the mark on one exam if work in class consistently been higher level. Best way to get grade up is to show ability at higher level so speak to school and ask for another opportunity in autumn to get grade up. Then consider some tuition over summer or some online self study eg Imperial have a free online maths course for prospective students. Also most schools expect students go up a grade between mocks and final exam. Sometimes they mark down at end year 12 to avoid students being complacent but will predict higher in the form.

Before thinking about contacting unis, writing about extenuating circumstances etc, you simply need to speak to school.

As you say, she only got the predictions yesterday. It’s not a crisis yet. Many schools and colleges expect to alter some grades. They expect to hear back from parents and to be questioned about grades. Some will change and some won’t.

Whwn she’s calmed down, speak to her more and dig down into her performance across the year in BOTH Maths and FM. Most will have a lower FM prediction. If you think it really is unfair, gather evidence of marked papers and prepare for a September meeting. Rememeber , that the unis she likes need a higher grades is t a good argument. You have to choose the unis based on the grades. You should only make a case based on attainment and potential.

Finally, have a think about if Maths is definitely the thing. Maths at good unis is vv hard. The school’s initial thought is a B for FM. That might not be correct, but their initial and immediate thought isn’t that she’s a whizz mathematicians who will get A at FM. That’s worth considering, because Marhs more than anything else, can be miserable and soul destroying if it is beyond you. This could be their error and actually she is A or A standard for FM, it if she really is a B, then it might be worth considering if this is what she really wants. And I know people will say ‘But B is a great grade’. Well, yes it dis is a good grade, but for a Maths degree, you really do need to be managing top grades at A Level without huge difficulty, so the step up at degree level isn’t impossible. People have their Maths limit and if yours is A Level, degree Maths won’t be fun.

But to all those saying write to the unis for extenuating circumstances…..that’s all very premature. There’s time for predicted grades to be adjusted if appropriate. Digging down into it all more with her is the first step, discussing degree choices etc. Then it might be worth considering tasting schools no going in for chat. Plenty of stages still to go before the UCAS form is sent off. It feels urgent when they’re upset and very dramatic, but you have to take a deep breath and there will be a way through.

Unfortunately it is just as likely she might have a bad paper in the real thing. Was the exam based on taught topics or the whole syllabus? Maths is a subject where it might click in the interim. What is her third subject? FM is most often a fourth. Her ps could cover some of the circumstances and challenges she has faced but not all unis read it.

The school’s initial thought is a B for FM. That might not be correct, but their initial and immediate thought isn’t that she’s a whizz mathematicians who will get A at FM.

I think that’s why it’s such a shock because all the pre exam tests, other tests and homework, plus teacher feedback was at an A star level. Maybe it’s to avoid complacency. She’s very very good at maths. Some thinking to do, no panics yet! And perhaps a little reality check at the end of year 12 is no bad thing to encourage her. Far better to have a shock now than opening the envelope on results day next year.

Yes it's January.
I believe it's October for Oxford and Cambridge and medical things

Mid to late Jan for non Oxbridge applications, so plenty of time to do more assessments and speak to school. School can mention personal difficulties or circumstances in their references too.

I’d push a bit. Secondary school teacher here. We base our predictions for UCAS on a best case scenario- what we think the student could get if they worked hard and exams went well.

BSc or MSci? If she decides she would really like to experience a Uni further from home after all, then one she may not have ever thought of considering, but which could work, is QUB (Russell Group):

QUB BSc Maths

QUB MSci

@WombatChocolate, Very good post.

Op, as others say, talk to the school but likeihood of higher grade but do take onboard their feedback. There has been grade inflation in the past so schools have to be realistic. What's her performance like in external competitions such as UKMT? Those will help to show her maths ability relative to others.

Former RG STEM admissions tutor here. A good friend has done Maths admissions in one of your DD’s preferred choices and that choice does not like gap years. This is fairly typical in STEM. And it is because we worry they will forget their maths That is not to deny that someone on a gap year presenting a strong application and a plan for revising maths over the year could gain admission. (Personally I think the concern overblown.)

I am very sorry about the loss of your DD’s father. At my university we count loss of a parent as a mitigating circumstance for a year. So if your DD lost her father during A level study, it is proper for the school to mention it in her application.

I hope your DD will have a chance in the autumn to revise her FM PG. If it doesn’t go well again, I agree she might want to consider a Joint Hons math degree. I agree it would likely be unpleasant to be fully immersed in university maths if an A in FM didn’t come reasonably easily. There are some wonderful, exciting ‘Maths with’ (about 2/3 maths) and
‘Maths and’ ( about 1/2 maths) degrees that give you another strong to your bow.

The reason for this is that in my maths adjacent field we find that amongst those who have taken FM (which we recommend but don’t require) a grade of A correlates with a strong performance at university, and a grade of B correlates with a weaker one. Every student deserves to know that if they work reasonably hard they can succeed.

I always encourage people to contact the admissions team with any questions, but I am not sure what yours are until you know whether your DD’s PG can be revised. FWIW, the best impression is left when the pupil initiates contact. We all understand they are nervous and that isn’t a problem! Email is fine. Good luck

PS. There is no disadvantage to applying later in the Autumn or early in Winter. January is pushing it, psychologically.

Brilliant, thanks to everyone.
Loads to think about, including courses. A joint honours with her third subject is definitely worth looking into.

This sounds really tricky. Here’s what I’d do (I’m a teacher, albeit not in Maths, but I think this is reasonable):

1. Was she predicted a B based on a lower mock grade of C/D or did she actually get a B? If she got a B already, I think she could say politely that she can see how far she’s come since September with their help and intends to continue improving over the next year (teachers can’t exactly say that the kids won’t improve at all across the whole of Year 13!)


2. Ask her to chat to the teacher and say she felt the exam could’ve gone much better and if she does another past paper please could they mark it? She could tell them she understands that they can’t just put the predicted grade up because she’s asked them to, but she really wants to prove that she deserves the A prediction.


3. Then revise like mad for the second paper and smash it.

Wishing her the best of luck with it! Xx

PS. That list of unis from @TizerorFizz contains some wonderful choices for Maths. Her list of Joint Hons subjects is good, too, but it barely scratches the surface. I haven’t got time to go into it here but I hope your DD will be happily surprised at the wide list of choices.

@BanjoVio she got a B, so that’s her predicted grade.
But - bit more info from this morning - she got 81% on the pure paper but really cocked up mechanics and stats. And it turns out she’s been struggling with mechanics (she’s the only FM pupil in her group who doesn’t do physics)
She’s asked for some extra tuition time and also getting some revision resources to do over the summer.
Im so glad I waited to find out what was going on before I raised anything with the school.
Ive had some wonderful advice, and yes lots of exciting opportunities are out there.

Our school has already set the retake schedule for October - the students had to request it and consult with their teachers. Things like Art they have said they will review any work done over the summer.
Basically they want to give the most optimistic grade while still being realistic, I'm sure your school wants to do this too.
In one sense the results seems to have helped you both identify areas that need work. Good luck!

Hi

I’m a physics teacher and help students with competitive applications. I have some advise that might be of use.

Normally the UCAS grade is slightly higher than the mock grade, so it is definitely worth speaking to the school about that.
You should have an opportunity to show evidence that you have improved based on the mock grades, so she can put the work in over the summer and show an improved score.
The exam boards give very little in terms of exam allowance, so you are right, her dad dying unfortunately doesn’t affect her grades. But universities are much more flexible. As a minimum it should be mentioned in he teacher reference or the college can write directly to the university explain the circumstances.

Finally, to help improve the mechanics side of the course, which students can find tougher as they haven’t already covered in physics I would suggest Issac physics, sigh up for a free account and then work through the mechanics questions from the a level book (free online or £1 if she wants a physical copy).

The other really good resource is Alevelphysicsonline, doesn’t matter which exam board, www.alevelphysicsonline.com/ocr-spec-a and watch the videos on the mechanic topics she is finding a bit harder.

She is no where near panic levels yet, so focus on remaining calm and improving weaker areas. Things like this are where resilience is learnt, view it as motivation to change the ucas grades.

Have a good summer

This is nonsense. The school is seriously telling young people that they will make zero improvements on their grades from the end of Year 12 to the end of their A Levels? They will improve by 0% with a year of study? I’d contest this, to be honest. Typically we predict one grade of improvement from Year 12 end-of-year exams to the end of Year 13 (and we’re usually right!)

@poetryandwine @Candleabra
My list of joint honours couldn’t be a full
list! Lots of exciting opportunities are available. I would also say that I don’t see Manchester as more desirable than say Birmingham or Leeds or Lancaster. I didn’t look at Loughborough but that might be in the mix too.

Also, why just look at joint honours with 3rd subject? There’s so many alternatives to look at that are not studied at school. She doesn’t have to do just school subjects. There is a vast array of options. All lead to good job prospects.

I gather maths at university is very different to maths A level or FM. A friends DS was top flight at school but struggled at Warwick. Was ok in the end with a 2:1 but he didn’t do MMath and had always intended to. Another young man I know who appeared gifted at school got a 2:2 in Maths from Cambridge. Brother got a first at the same uni in the same subject. Not all mathematicians suit all courses so looking at what’s available regarding joint courses makes sense.

What is the 3rd subject? Where might this lead?