I think some people see a string of good GCSEs or some solid A Level predictions as making their kids or the cohort if a school Oxbridge material.
In the last couple of years with grade inflation, huge numbers have these behind them, and far in excess of places available. Many of these kids are decent, solid students but they are not Oxbridge material. Most schools like EC don’t have large numbers or even many at all who are actually Oxbridge material.
The reality is, that perhaps independent schools themselves can do less now and make less difference than they used to. Now more state school students know about Oxbridge and apply, the field is bigger and therefore the competition harder and so those who are genuinely good more likely to get the places, rather than just those who are decent and went to a school that pushes Oxbridge.
In my experience over many years, the students who get the places are those with a genuine passion for their subject, which is actively displayed, as well as stellar GCSE and A Level results. This isn’t the many students who have great GCSEs but who would never dream of choosing freely to read books on their subject of interest, or visit relevant sites, or engage behind the curriculum.
In the past, when far fewer state school students knew Oxbridge was even an option, applications were lower. Independently educated kids who had been told constantly they were great and who had self belief were the bulk of the applicants, and along with those who were brilliant, some who were just decent got by because the work the school did with them to boost their wider reading and prep them for interview wad good enough.
But now, with more applications per place for most courses, quality will out. Quality isn’t created by being decent but that it all, but having been to an expensive school and being pushed through a programme.
Lots of independent schools are a bit selective, but actually not very selective in reality. There is an entrance exam and some don’t get offers, but most do. In areas if the south-east and LOndon, where there are so many schools, there is a real pecking order, and the brightest students get concentrated in certain schools. Those schools will have greater Oxbridge success because they simply have the brightest students. Even they are finding it harder and the more ‘marginal’ cases who would have got in before don’t now. So, for the schools which are a level or two down (and that will be the majority of schools which are still considered desirable and successful) you would now expect to see fewer Oxbridge successes, whatever the school does. The school isn’t doing anything wrong, it’s just that their impact is less, when competition is so much greater.
As others have said, EC doesn’t take particularly clever children. Yes, their exam grades might be good and better. Some of that is due to grade inflation and some due to good teaching to the exams…..but don’t confuse those good grades with being really genuinely very clever. With clear focused teaching and reasonable ability, many many children can get an excellent set of exam results and not be Oxbridge material.
But parents are deluded. They ignore the fact their child has never shown any genuin interest in a subject, and prefers to spend their time on YouTube or messaging friends and doing the minimum of work to get by….or that they are a hard grafter who does well because they follow the techniques given to them, rather than having an independence if thought. These parents think their fees entitle them to the school ‘polishing’ their child to a level that they get the Oxbridge offer and that if they don’t, the school has done something wrong. But it hasn’t. No doubt the school has run an Oxbridge programme and encouraged the child to do the reading and engaging which has never come naturally to them. Some of those kids will have tried hard to engage whilst others won’t, be they essentially remain the children they were. The school cannot change them. And that’s very disappointing if you’ve paid £25k a year with the belief that the fees entitled you to Oxbridge success, or that the fees mean the school should be able to get anyone who is pretty decent in. It’s galling to think that people who haven’t paid and who haven’t had the programmes and push get the places. Surely it must be the independent school that has somehow failed, because it simply cannot be that their child simply isn’t up to it. So people look to ‘blame’ the school, or to decide that it can be explained by positive discrimination in favour of certain state school students.
The future will be that many Independents see their Oxbridge numbers drop. Those that used to get 40 in might drop to 30 or 25. Huge numbers only ever got 10 in, even when they were considered desirable, academic schools. Their figures may well drop to 5. Those that are actually very selective might well be on 2 or 3. It’s to be expected. No doubt lots of parents will be disappointed and many will blame the school and many blame the system. It’s a decline in the influence of privilege to represent a more (if not fully) meritocratic and fair system. That will never please parents who are paying. And I speak as a parent who is paying.