So predicted grades need to exceed standard offers?

[Fedupwantchocolate]

DD is in lower 6th so about to start UCAS process. At the presentation evening we were told that just because your predicted grades meet the standard offers published on the university website this does not guarantee and offer and that top universities (not just oxbridge) are looking for higher grades. Can anyone who has been through the process give me some real life experiences of this so I can get an idea of how risky it would be to apply to universities where she just meets the entry requirements? She wants to study chemistry so the standard offers at her preferred universities are already high (AAA) so does she realistically need to be predicted more like AAA to secure an offer?

Sorry - so many typos. What I meant to say is does she need predicted grades of 3 A*s to get an offer from a university if the standard offer is 3 As....do her predicted grades need to exceed the standard offer?

I wouldn’t think so at all-grades required are grades required! What do they do if the requirements are 3 A*s?

My experience is that predicted grades need to exceed standard offers in popular or highly competitive universities or courses.

My experience is also that state schools don’t inflate predictions in the way independent schools do. If she is in state sector and not yet submitted application, then put pressure on to increase predictions now. Talk to teacher about need, about impact and grade boundaries meaning there really is very little difference between an A and A*.

Unfortunately, as teacher assessment increases independent school children gain an additional advantage again.

My eldest would not be a doctor now if we hadn’t challenged her chemistry teacher around predictions. He was hopeless and talked about possibly finishing curriculum, so she was on course for a good B in her final exams. I told him not finishing the curriculum and aiming for a B wasn’t good enough. We expected an A (no A*s then) and he had a responsibility to deliver on that expectation with our support.

He had predicted from an understanding that not all course content would be covered because some students needed more time on certain areas. He agreed to deliver additional tuition sessions for missing parts of curriculum and to increase predictions for those who attended. As it was mainly those intending to go into medicine or vets, it was the hardworking, high ability children who took up the offer.

Don’t accept rubbish predictions.

I can only go by my DS' experience but he received offers from all his applied-for unis this year.

Uni A wanted 112 UCAS points on their website and that's what the offered.
Uni B said BBB and offered BBB
Uni C said AAB to BBB and offered ABB
Uni D said AAA, offered a different course at AAB
Uni E said AAA-AAB and offered AAB

We think his predicted grades were AAB. He has firmed uni D and insured uni B

No idea if that helps!

Surely it depends on the applications they get each year.

My yr13 ds was rejected by his tip choice, despite his predicted grades exceeding their stated grades.

I've always read stated grades as a minimum, but that doesn't guarantee you anything.

Interesting what LemonRoses writes.
I want Ds1's predictions to be realistic. He's just sat exams, so We are awaiting exam marks, and predictions. I'll keep an eye on this.

@Oblomov21

Interesting what LemonRoses writes. I want Ds1's predictions to be realistic. He's just sat exams, so We are awaiting exam marks, and predictions. I'll keep an eye on this.

What is realistic though? Why is that important for you?

Why when a slightly inflated grade might get better offers and then accept with minor shortfall anyway?
What if he exceeds predictions? Does he take a year out and apply again?
Several of my youngest cohort got Oxbridge/Durham/Exeter and US university offers based on IB predictions of 44/45. Some only made 42/3 points, but their places were honoured anyway.

Not sure realism is terribly helpful to state school pupils wanting a highly competitive place.

It sounds like you are at an advantage to have better than required predictions, provided that the university sticks to the standard offer. It does make it quite tricky though if your subject is already asking for really high grades to “over exceed” them...

I just found this online re a similar course to that ds applied for.
It is detailed information, and doesn't say how many applicants met the grade requirements, but with high grade requirements I'd expect applicants to be have predictions meeting them rather than chancing it.
Based on that, even if you meet the grade requirements you still haven't got a high chance of getting an offer.
The predicted v achieved A*'s is also interesting.

Further to your recent FoI request, the Schools response is provided below:

For the entry years of 2019 and 2020 for the L100 Economics course at the London School of Economics:

1. Number of Applicants
   2019 = 1496
   2020 = 1613

2. Number of Offers Made
   2019 = 268
   2020 = 269

3. Mean number of A* predicted grades for those sitting the A-Level, of whom received an offer
   2019- 2.9
   2020- 2.8

4. Mean number of A* achieved grades for those who sat the A-Level, of whom received an offer
   2019- 1.6
   2020 - 2.0

@Chasingsquirrels that’s quite interesting...so basically you have to exceed the standard offer to get an offer but most people don’t actually get their predictions. Kind of make a mockery of the whole system as you are at a disadvantage if your school is accurate with their predictions.....pretty depressing tbh...

I think only 20-25% of student meet or exceed their predicted grades in normal years. So I guess that’s why Uni make more offers with those with higher predictions, to ensure plenty of their offer holders meet the entry requirements come results day.

I suppose covid has put a spanner in the works with all of this as everyone meets their predictions ....next year when we are hopefully back to usual it will be interesting to see how things adjust.

It does somewhat depend on the subject and uni, too. Five years ago my DS1 was predicted A A A and got the standard offer of AAA from 4/5 of his choices and an 3xA offer from the other despite his predictions not meeting that. He firmed the aspirational uni as the others were all the same offer and did achieve 3xA much to our delight. This was for maths where lots of unis seem to give the standard offer to everyone who might meet it.

Last year DS3 was also predicted A A A but we both felt that was an ambitious prediction and A A B was more likely so looked at unis with 3x A or equivalent offers. With last year’s debacle he ended up with A A A and got his first choice.

This year that has changed it appears as so many students did better than they would have in a normal year and universities were stung by having to take more students than planned. From December onwards this year they seem to have been much more cautious in what they offered. I think that might carry on to this year as no one can really predict if normal A levels will happen again.

If you are looking at very competitive unis like Oxbridge, Imperial, Durham, LSE, etc they only offer say AAA to those predicted 3xA* (massive oversimplification, as Oxbridge interviews/entrance examines but you get the gist) to ensure they get those students they want.

If you are looking at many other RG unis you’ll generally get an offer if you meet entry requirements in your predictions in maths at least, but getting an extra A* predicted would be useful. IMO.

My DC has a 3A prediction and got 3A standard offers from all their chosen unis UCL, LSE, Bristol, Kings and a BBB offer from Manchester.

So you don't necessarily have to have predicted grades that exceed the standard offer. It really does depend on the university and the popularity of the course.

DD is in y12 and looking at places with offers ranging from AAA to AAB. Her first choice has a standard offer of AAA but the mean applicant has predictions of AAA so she’s unlikely to get an offer without similar predictions. She has just had her predicted grade in her best subject confirmed as A, which she thinks is unfair as she has got A or A in every assignment and A in her mock so it looks very much like her first choice is a pipe dream unless she smashes the exams and applies with actual rather than predicted grades a year later.I know I’m biased but I can’t help feeling if she was at an independent rather than a not very good state then they would be more willing to predict A.

That’s great, @Fairyfield! Well done to your DC. What’s their subject? Is it a very popular one?

@Shadedog, I’m sure some schools are better at maximising their students’ chances. At my state school, students sometimes ask what they can do to up their predicted grade and teachers will get them to sit another assessment to see if they can demonstrate they deserve it. Though with a mix of A and A and an A in the latest exam they sound overly cautious. It might give her something to suggest to her teacher, though?

Is her not very good state likely to mean she would be wifi le for a contextual with her first choice @Shadedog?

@Shadedog

DD is in y12 and looking at places with offers ranging from AAA to AAB. Her first choice has a standard offer of AAA but the mean applicant has predictions of AAA so she’s unlikely to get an offer without similar predictions. She has just had her predicted grade in her best subject confirmed as A, which she thinks is unfair as she has got A or A in every assignment and A in her mock so it looks very much like her first choice is a pipe dream unless she smashes the exams and applies with actual rather than predicted grades a year later.I know I’m biased but I can’t help feeling if she was at an independent rather than a not very good state then they would be more willing to predict A.

From BIS report:

Further/Higher education centre-types had the lowest overall percentage of accurately predicted grades (40.2%).
 Independent schools achieved the highest percentage of accurate grade predictions (64.7%) partly because 70% of all predictions made by this centre-type were for A grades.
 Independent schools achieved a 73.4% accuracy rate on A grade predictions, whereas this figure for FE/HE centre-types stood at 49.3%. Independent schools achieved the highest accuracy of prediction across grades A to D (other than grade C which was around the same accuracy as FE/HE centre-types.)

So, not willingness to predict a better grade, but just better at predicting!

DS currently has offers from all 5 choices (inc Cambridge) for Maths.

He was predicted 4 x A star (non selective state school).

His highest offer is 2 x A star and an A plus 2 x 1 in STEP.

His lowest was AAB.

All uni's were RG or 10 ten in multiple U.K. Uni rankings.

Friends with lower predicted grades missed out on some of their choices re an offer.

Essentially yes I think they are a factor but at the same time there's no point being unrealistic and making an application unless you're reasonably confident you've got a shot at achieving the standard offer conditions.

Mostly what the school has said is bollocks. The vast majority of applicants get the standard offer regardless of their predicted grades.

For Chemistry, a recruiting subject, this is certainly true - he'd be more likely than not to get offers even if his predicted are less than the standard offer. So don't worry. And don't worry if he missed his offer by a grade next year either - he'll almost certainly still be accepted.

(Very very selective subjects and institutions won't have any flexibility, but are still more likely to offer as long as the predicted is at least the same as the standard offer.)

The only caveat is if A levels don't go ahead next year. That will make things more competitive, but even so for a subject like Chemistry there shouldn't be a problem getting offers even if the predicteds are one or two lower than standard.

Not sure. My twins applied in the days of AS levels and they got 4 top grades inthose 4 As (no a stars are available for AS levels), were predicted three A stars which I thought was more than was likely and they got AAA and AAB (the B being the highest grade of anyone in that subject in his year !!!!) and met their university offers at Bristol so it was fine.

Beware of wishing for overpredictions, one year dc's school overpredicted so majority had to go to through clearing....

Is her not very good state likely to mean she would be wifi le for a contextual with her first choice @Shadedog?

She will qualify for contextual offers but her 1st choice is Oxford with a 20% acceptance rate for her subject. It was always a long shot to be fair, but all the contextualising in the world can’t make her AAA look good amongst the competition. There is always the submitted written work and the test and interview, but she will have to be amazing to get an offer over people with A* predictions who will also do well at the other things. I think the contextual in this case will get her shortlisted, along with 3/4 of other applicants.

@Shadedog, I’m sure some schools are better at maximising their students’ chances. At my state school, students sometimes ask what they can do to up their predicted grade and teachers will get them to sit another assessment to see if they can demonstrate they deserve it. Though with a mix of A and A and an A in the latest exam they sound overly cautious. It might give her something to suggest to her teacher, though?

She has tried but been told “no”. To add to it she no longer has a teacher for that subject as the one who predicted her A has left and the new one doesn’t start until September. With an October deadline for admissions I can’t see it changing. It’s very demotivating when she has essentially only done 2/3 of Y12 and got an A* in the mock. Her mock was quite early on account of the teacher leaving. Her other mocks aren’t until next week.

BigWoollyJumper

Possibly, but independents and grammars are also much more likely to overpredict than state schools. Where universities offer on prediction and allow slippage for the actual place, it becomes clear that there is a lack of parity.

Perhaps if state schools overestimated the predicted grades there would be fewer children with inaccurate under predictions and they would be less disadvantaged. The accuracy of prediction might balance out if state teachers were willing to 'take a punt'.

These were the offers DD got in 2019/20 with her predicted grades of AAB (pre-Covid though; as I understand it, offers and acceptances are all over the place this year)

Uni 1 (RG) asked for AAB, offered AAB
Uni 2 (RG) asked for AAB and offered AAB
Uni 3 (RG) asked for AAB-ABB and offered ABB - this became her first choice (and she scraped in with ABC)
Uni 4 (pre-92 but not RG) asked for BBB and offered BBB
Uni 5 (pre-92 but not RG) asked for ABB and gave her a no-strings unconditional which became her (much appreciated) back up.