So predicted grades need to exceed standard offers?

[Fedupwantchocolate]

DD is in lower 6th so about to start UCAS process. At the presentation evening we were told that just because your predicted grades meet the standard offers published on the university website this does not guarantee and offer and that top universities (not just oxbridge) are looking for higher grades. Can anyone who has been through the process give me some real life experiences of this so I can get an idea of how risky it would be to apply to universities where she just meets the entry requirements? She wants to study chemistry so the standard offers at her preferred universities are already high (AAA) so does she realistically need to be predicted more like AAA to secure an offer?

Fascinated by how this thread has developed

@Delphigirl

Fascinated by how this thread has developed

My DH taught A levels a couple of decades ago, and has been talking shit about them as if he's at the cutting edge of sixth form education ever since. Agree with @titchy about the voluntary/paid work. For most subjects that's a complete red herring. I didn't get that from my DH, btw.

DS had absolutely no work experience or volunteering to put on his PS. He still got 5 standard offers from 5 Russell group unis. I’m a single parent, he gets the full loan and a bursary but didn’t apply to anywhere where he’d qualify for a contextual offer. That’s what your disadvantaged students should be spending their time on, researching which universities will give them the best contextual offers, the best bursaries etc. Not worrying about what irrelevant extra-curriculars to put on their PS. For medicine, maybe, just to show they have some social skills but for maths or engineering or chemistry? Nobody cares. IMO.

Ok - so work experience aside the competitiveness of the course dictates how much “exceeding” standard offers is required. I am pleased to hear chemistry is not over subscribed...

Out of interest, what courses outside of medicine, law, dentistry and vetinary are the most competitive? Economics? ...I thought everyone wanted to do a STEM degree these days and that they would be the most oversubscribed?...so physics, engineering?

Business and management and accounting type courses I understand. Politics. Pharmacy.

@Fedupwantchocolate

Ok - so work experience aside the competitiveness of the course dictates how much “exceeding” standard offers is required. I am pleased to hear chemistry is not over subscribed...

Out of interest, what courses outside of medicine, law, dentistry and vetinary are the most competitive? Economics? ...I thought everyone wanted to do a STEM degree these days and that they would be the most oversubscribed?...so physics, engineering?

Difficult to answer.

Depends on too many factors such as the particular popularity of a course at a specific institution.

For example some Uni's might not be top 10 in overall rankings but rank very highly wrt a specific course.

Same in reverse.

Generally over subscribed courses are things like law, management, the much-maligned media studies, history, English.

Sciences are NOT at all over subscribed - your perception is very wrong there OP.

Ox, Cam aside, predictions really don't need to be above the standard offer. In fact they don't even need to be at the standard offer very often!

Just to throw another perspective into the mix...

My DS applied for an under-subscribed STEM course at a non-RG university with predicted grades of ABC last year. DS offer was BBC and he was given CAGs of ACC last August. The university rejected him even though the course was in clearing until the end of September. They would not accept him with a C in maths. So dropped grades do matter to some universities and for some courses, even at recruiting non-RG universities.

DS has had to have a gap year due to the C grade. He did take the October exam and got an A grade. So he now has an unconditional offer for the original course he applied for (niche science course).

Thanks guys....this makes me feel a lot more comfortable now. Hopefully her predictions will be good enough and she will be able to pursue the degree she wants.

I think of it slightly differently.
I appreciate that DC, generally, want to go to the best uni (they can get into). And that they may want to go to one with a particular course or which employers highly regard. So this is a more general comment, not to a specific situation.
If you are over-predicted and get into a uni, say with lower actual grades (than your prediction and poss std offer) which may actually reflect your true ability. You'd, possibly, be towards the bottom of the cohort, ability-wise.
If you are more accurately predicted, you may get into a diff uni (which may be only slightly lower ranked). You'd, possibly, be towards the middle/top of the cohort, ability-wise.
Bearing in mind that, unlike A-levels, you're completing with your fellow course students for a 2:1, etc, then you may have a chance of a higher award (or even completing the course in the extreme case) on the latter option.
Would be interesting to see award vs entry A-level grades data.

That’s just your ignorance Rude. So,do,tell which school sends 500 disadvantaged children to RG each year for STEM subjects. Better than most independents. People from the nearby gated community will be queuing at the door.

Parents putting children in for early GCSEs or A levels can seriously disadvantage them, and is never an advantage.. Except it wasn’t us put her in for it, was it? She felt she had significant Significant advantage as did the school. In fact, her medical schools accepted the early grade A, so she only needed to pull off two other As in upper VI to take up her place. That’s quite a big advantage in terms of pressure and confidence. As happens she didn’t need it, and got 6As at A level, but that early A allowed her to relax and enjoy learning.

And 11 students per A level class? More like 25-30. Inaccurate statistic, I’m afraid. The average state A level class is 11.

There are no advantages to taking exams early, and many disadvantages. Even a student capable of a top grade gains nothing by taking the A level at 15, and if they don’t get the top grade, they are stuck with having to explain why not, forever after, especially if they go on to get a top grade 2 years later, and have that spoilt by always having to declare both grades. What do you think that looks like?

I think that looks like someone who doesn’t value learning or high achievement and focuses on supporting mediocracy. My youngest also did an A level at 15 and that certainly helped get a full sixth form scholarship to a public school.

@LemonRoses where the heck does a STEM A level class have only 11 these days ??? Genuinely interested as I'm off to teach there. Mine have 26. And none of ours are less than 24.
And medical schools now expect 3 A levels in one sitting. Just wanted to clarify that bit.

so work experience aside the competitiveness of the course dictates how much “exceeding” standard offers is required

That’s the crux of it. Dd is still waiting for her other 2 predicted grades but with the A in her best subject gone, it’s AAA or AAA. Her Oxford course has a standard offer of AAA, so far so good, but a mean applicant predicted grade of AAA. With a 20% acceptance rate the reality is dd has no chance with predicted grades which match the standard offer.

Her second choice also has a standard offer of AAA (and contextual, which she qualifies for of ABB) and an acceptance rate of 80%. She stands a much better chance here, although I’m sure lots of applicants will have predicted grades over the standard offer, it won’t be so many (and she’s still fingers crossed for an A* in one of her other subjects). Her second choice offers 4-5x the number of available places. Oxbridge are special insomuch that most offer holders will take a place there so they barely over offer at all. Dd is going for one aspirational, 2 hopefuls but by no means guaranteed and two perfectly decent unis with lower offer grades than her (predicted) predicteds.

DD had a chat with her university advisor today which was quite interesting. Apparently a couple of years ago universities were perfectly happy to give you an offer if you met the predicted grades and banked on the probability that a proportion of students wouldn’t meet the grade. Now in covid times they are dealing with lots of deferrals meaning there are less places up for grabs and the possibility that all students will meet the offers. Consequently some schools are massively over inflating prediction to ensure that their kids get an offer, banking on the fact that the standard offer will still be in the table. It all sounds like a bit of a mess and unfortunately some kids will lose out because they may have accurate predictions as opposed to over inflated ones. There has apparently been talk of changing the process so that you apply after you get your grades which would be a good way out of this mess.

There haven't been that many deferrals actually so please don't worry. Last year was a pig because grades changed after places were confirmed, but that's not happening this year, and your dd's year will almost certainly be sitting actual exams - and results will be lower, possibly a lot depending on how exam boards deal with moderating back to pre-CAG levels.

And Chemistry even in the mess there has been has still not got enough people applying!

@ Shadedog

My dc is at the end of their first year studying a Humanities subject at Oxford

GCSE results were average for Oxford - 8 x A and A* grades, plus 1 x B
A level grades were predicted 3 x A, was offered 3 x A, and achieved A*, A A - which is below average for Oxford

But scored above average in the aptitude test and the interview

Potential also counts!

[quote mumsneedwine]@LemonRoses where the heck does a STEM A level class have only 11 these days ??? Genuinely interested as I'm off to teach there. Mine have 26. And none of ours are less than 24.
And medical schools now expect 3 A levels in one sitting. Just wanted to clarify that bit.[/quote]
We though three in one sitting- but offer didn’t actually specify that when we checked the detail. They had to uphold their offer when the school checked.

I used government averages data - although numbers may have increased since 2019, I guess. I wouldn’t have thought by that much though.

Thanks Crummies that’s really nice to hear. There are so many stories of people with crazy high grades not getting places and it is rather off putting. She has done an online study session for the test and thinks she can do quite well as the way it’s set up plays to her strengths. The interview is anybodies guess but she’s doing UNIQ so that should help.

@Shadedog, GCSEs and predicted A Level grades are contextualised so don’t worry about predicted grades not exceeding the standard offer.
Work experience/paid work is NOT required. This is clearly stated on Oxbridge websites. Subject interest however is required.
DD (third year STEM, Oxford) shadowed a PhD student at our local uni. This inspired her EPQ project and gave her stuff for her PS. Note that the personal statement might not be that important; in DD’s case it just gave her interviewers the basis for an icebreaker question.
DS (fresher, Cambridge) showed his interest in economics by entering essay competitions and getting involved in Young Enterprise. No work experience and he had offers from all five choices.
Good luck to your DD.

Just had a look at my dc personal statement - no mention of work experience/paid work/ voluntary work either.

The Ucas reference from 6th form does though but I have no idea whether this has any bearing on offers

I’m not sure about this year as there are predictions of a surge in delayed applications from last year due to Covid but Chemistry is often in clearing. Even Imperial went into clearing for Chemistry one year!