So predicted grades need to exceed standard offers?

[Fedupwantchocolate]

DD is in lower 6th so about to start UCAS process. At the presentation evening we were told that just because your predicted grades meet the standard offers published on the university website this does not guarantee and offer and that top universities (not just oxbridge) are looking for higher grades. Can anyone who has been through the process give me some real life experiences of this so I can get an idea of how risky it would be to apply to universities where she just meets the entry requirements? She wants to study chemistry so the standard offers at her preferred universities are already high (AAA) so does she realistically need to be predicted more like AAA to secure an offer?

@LemonRoses You keep saying that independents over predict more, but was that actually borne out by the paper on this topic?

[quote Revengeofthepangolins]@LemonRoses You keep saying that independents over predict more, but was that actually borne out by the paper on this topic?[/quote]
Yes.

Several sources including

BIS.

UCAS

Minority report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups
Richard Murphy & Gill Wyness

DS offers were all exactly the same as published all RG. 2 at AAB, 1 at ABB and one at BBB. He withdrew from the 5th when he had the offers he wanted. His predictions are AAB

I have to say that I pushed the school on 1 prediction. His end of year 12 level was not at a B and I was clear with the school that based on his history and the fact that he wanted to put the work in and I would get him a tutor I expected a B prediction as if not it would disadvantage him at offer time. They offered to reassess him and set a deadline to show progress. I believe I was right to do this and he’s now looking like that slightly ropy B will be an A.

Our college say that there is no negotiation on predicted grades at all.

@LemonRoses

My experience is that predicted grades need to exceed standard offers in popular or highly competitive universities or courses.

My experience is also that state schools don’t inflate predictions in the way independent schools do. If she is in state sector and not yet submitted application, then put pressure on to increase predictions now. Talk to teacher about need, about impact and grade boundaries meaning there really is very little difference between an A and A*.

Unfortunately, as teacher assessment increases independent school children gain an additional advantage again.

My eldest would not be a doctor now if we hadn’t challenged her chemistry teacher around predictions. He was hopeless and talked about possibly finishing curriculum, so she was on course for a good B in her final exams. I told him not finishing the curriculum and aiming for a B wasn’t good enough. We expected an A (no A*s then) and he had a responsibility to deliver on that expectation with our support.

He had predicted from an understanding that not all course content would be covered because some students needed more time on certain areas. He agreed to deliver additional tuition sessions for missing parts of curriculum and to increase predictions for those who attended. As it was mainly those intending to go into medicine or vets, it was the hardworking, high ability children who took up the offer.

Don’t accept rubbish predictions.

Don’t be ridiculous. Nothing you said to the chemistry teacher made one iota of difference. It would be out of his hands anyway. It’s a formula. He might have parried your helicopter parenting and ignorant interference skill fully enough to make you think you had influence but it sounds to me like it was his way of persuading your child to attend extra lessons. I bet your DC had refused or failed to turn up before that

But don’t encourage others to ‘challenge’ teachers, who cannot change predicted grades anyway, and even if they could, absolutely 100% should not, just because of parents demands.

It is a constant drain on everybody, having to fend off these stupid, baseless demands from parents. Have I ever seen any one make any difference? No, not once in 30 years.

(Although I have seen some teachers quite skilful in spinning it back on the child, as seems to have happened in this case)

@LemonRoses

BigWoollyJumper

Possibly, but independents and grammars are also much more likely to overpredict than state schools. Where universities offer on prediction and allow slippage for the actual place, it becomes clear that there is a lack of parity.

Perhaps if state schools overestimated the predicted grades there would be fewer children with inaccurate under predictions and they would be less disadvantaged. The accuracy of prediction might balance out if state teachers were willing to 'take a punt'.

‘Take a punt’ ?are you serious? Predicted grades are not ‘puntable’ fgs. They are formula based. You don’t pluck them out if the air. And they are based on prior achievement, so if they are lower than the child’s potential, then that is gown to the child. If they want better final grades than the prediction, work harder

OP. Gcse grades are also important, and relevant work experience/ volunteering. How has your child demonstrated commitment to this area? What work experience has she organised for herself? What did she learn from it? How did it deepen her understanding of the subject? Etc

@0None0

OP. Gcse grades are also important, and relevant work experience/ volunteering. How has your child demonstrated commitment to this area? What work experience has she organised for herself? What did she learn from it? How did it deepen her understanding of the subject? Etc

For goodness sake OP's kid wants to do chemistry! He'll get offers. No need for voluntary or work experience. His predictions (which some schools maybe prepared to negotiate - don't assume everywhere does things the same) as long as they roughly within a grade or two of the uni standard offer won't make any difference!

It's really not this super-competitive super-secret process you know. Esp. not for STEM.

OnOneO Are you one of those teachers who fails children by under predictions and inflexibility then?

My child didn’t need persuasion to attend extra lessons. She needed a teacher that finished the curriculum and recognised the likelihood of higher than a B grade. Far from not turning up, my child gained her first A at A level at fifteen. She liked working and was ambitious. Her teacher was willing to be mediocre and accept mediocrity.

As my husband was a head of two schools at the time, I’m not sure our stance came out of ignorance either. A pity more parents don’t challenge teachers who can’t be bothered to allow aspiration.

@titchy. I have got countless students from very deprived back grounds into Russel group universities for STEM subjects. I expect everyone who’s application I submit to have work experience/ voluntary work on it. Particularly in physics or chemistry

[quote 0None0]@titchy. I have got countless students from very deprived back grounds into Russel group universities for STEM subjects. I expect everyone who’s application I submit to have work experience/ voluntary work on it. Particularly in physics or chemistry[/quote]
Well they don't need it. And I hope to god you don't refuse the reference/predictions to those without.

Hope that helps. them not you

@LemonRoses

OnOneO Are you one of those teachers who fails children by under predictions and inflexibility then?

My child didn’t need persuasion to attend extra lessons. She needed a teacher that finished the curriculum and recognised the likelihood of higher than a B grade. Far from not turning up, my child gained her first A at A level at fifteen. She liked working and was ambitious. Her teacher was willing to be mediocre and accept mediocrity.

As my husband was a head of two schools at the time, I’m not sure our stance came out of ignorance either. A pity more parents don’t challenge teachers who can’t be bothered to allow aspiration.

If you’ve got so much experience and knowledge why would you allow her to take an A level at 15? That shows ignorance

&titchy many of them do need it. And you are likely to be seriously limiting their appeal to universities without it. Take two students with identical predictions, or identical final grades. And one has work experience and one doesn’t, who is going to be chosen?

I have spent decades getting thousands of students onto the best courses possible for them. I am amazed at the ignorance on here. Having a pushy parent is not an advantage in any way. Some of you are seriously disadvantaging your DC.

0None0. Gosh you’re spoiling for a fight aren’t you? I’m not sure I said I was an expert, but rather that my husband is in education.

You seem to disapprove of ambitious and interested students. Not ideal for a teacher, if that is what you are.
Why would we let her complete an A level at fifteen?

Personal choice. To prevent complacency and boredom. To encourage a love of learning. To stretch and challenge. To widen knowledge base. To decrease risks of not achieving grades in sixth form and take pressure off. All sorts of reasons.
The question is surely, why would we stop her?

@0None0

I have spent decades getting thousands of students onto the best courses possible for them. I am amazed at the ignorance on here. Having a pushy parent is not an advantage in any way. Some of you are seriously disadvantaging your DC.

what tosh.

@0None0

&titchy many of them do need it. And you are likely to be seriously limiting their appeal to universities without it. Take two students with identical predictions, or identical final grades. And one has work experience and one doesn’t, who is going to be chosen?

For STEM, both will get an offer. So don't you dare put the ones without the work experience off applying.

Honestly you're the sort of teacher my colleagues and myself spend so much time trying to re-educate to give their kids a chance. You're doing your students a huge disservice. Shame on you.

0None0. Please tell me you’re not a maths teacher? Your claims are somewhat inflated and inaccurate.

Thousands into Russell group. That would be what, at least three thousand? Given only 44% of non-selective state applications to RGs get offers, you’d need about six thousand applications to get those three thousand offers. I’m guessing their A level classes were about average size? That’s about 11 pupils.

Even if you taught three A level classes every year, that’s going to take a very long time to get three thousand places, isn’t it? Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you must have been teaching for about 180 years, so no wonder you’re thinking is a bit awry. That is also assuming all your students from very disadvantaged backgrounds chose to apply to RG and got the grades.

For courses that are not oversubscribed, as is the case for most Chemistry courses outside Oxbridge, Imperial, etc., there is no competition between people with the same predicted grades. The course will have enough places for all people who apply with approximately the right predicted grades because there simply aren't that many of them.

For oversubscribed courses, it is a different matter. Then the personal statement is one part of a holistic review that also includes predicted grades, but no oversubscribed course will promise to only take the people with the highest predicted grades. Or the most work experience...

@LemonRoses

0None0. Please tell me you’re not a maths teacher? Your claims are somewhat inflated and inaccurate.

Thousands into Russell group. That would be what, at least three thousand? Given only 44% of non-selective state applications to RGs get offers, you’d need about six thousand applications to get those three thousand offers. I’m guessing their A level classes were about average size? That’s about 11 pupils.

Even if you taught three A level classes every year, that’s going to take a very long time to get three thousand places, isn’t it? Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you must have been teaching for about 180 years, so no wonder you’re thinking is a bit awry. That is also assuming all your students from very disadvantaged backgrounds chose to apply to RG and got the grades.

I sincerely hope you don’t walk around proclaiming yourself instant expert on anything and everything in real life, because I bet you make yourself look a proper banana.

Every school has one person in charge of UCAS applications. In my MAT that has been me for the last decade or more. Quick mental maths, probably 4-5000 students from deprived area into Russel group universities in that time.

@LemonRoses

0None0. Gosh you’re spoiling for a fight aren’t you? I’m not sure I said I was an expert, but rather that my husband is in education.

You seem to disapprove of ambitious and interested students. Not ideal for a teacher, if that is what you are.
Why would we let her complete an A level at fifteen?

Personal choice. To prevent complacency and boredom. To encourage a love of learning. To stretch and challenge. To widen knowledge base. To decrease risks of not achieving grades in sixth form and take pressure off. All sorts of reasons.
The question is surely, why would we stop her?

Why would you stop her? Because you are putting her at a disadvantage in her university application, if that is the area she wants to go I , and she hasn’t studied it for 3 years by the time she applies through UCAS. Because you are putting huge pressure on a 15 year old who is saddled with a grade below their true capabilities, which they have to declare. Because that is not how you encourage love of learning. Many possible disadvantages, no advantage. No reason at all to do this. The only possible exception would be marsh, if she is going in to do further marsh, but even then, it tells admissions more about the school timetable than the student

0None0 My goodness you’re rude. Hardly you getting them in though, is it? That would be their subject teachers. You mean you’re an administrator or head of sixth? Getting 500 per year from a single school is bordering on impossible, isn’t it? Even MATs struggle with that.

It must be a pretty large MAT to get 5,000 poor kids into RG in ten years. You’d need around 10,000 applications. Those wouldn’t all be STEM, would they? The fact your MAT serves challenged communities limits which one it can be. Maybe you worked with my husband? He had over 30,000 pupils in very challenged communities, but only a handful from each school, each year, went on to RG and Oxbridge despite proactive encouragement and resources. To get 500 disadvantaged pupils a year in to STEM subjects from one MAT in one year is truly exceptional.

It can’t be Harris which is the one really big enough. They did send around 500 to RG out of their 2,350 pupils in 2020, but they weren’t all disadvantaged pupils and didn’t all do STEM subjects.

I smell spin, I’m afraid.

@LemonRoses

0None0 My goodness you’re rude. Hardly you getting them in though, is it? That would be their subject teachers. You mean you’re an administrator or head of sixth? Getting 500 per year from a single school is bordering on impossible, isn’t it? Even MATs struggle with that.

It must be a pretty large MAT to get 5,000 poor kids into RG in ten years. You’d need around 10,000 applications. Those wouldn’t all be STEM, would they? The fact your MAT serves challenged communities limits which one it can be. Maybe you worked with my husband? He had over 30,000 pupils in very challenged communities, but only a handful from each school, each year, went on to RG and Oxbridge despite proactive encouragement and resources. To get 500 disadvantaged pupils a year in to STEM subjects from one MAT in one year is truly exceptional.

It can’t be Harris which is the one really big enough. They did send around 500 to RG out of their 2,350 pupils in 2020, but they weren’t all disadvantaged pupils and didn’t all do STEM subjects.

I smell spin, I’m afraid.

You smell whatever you like. That’s just your ignorance. Parents putting children in for early GCSEs or A levels can seriously disadvantage them, and is never an advantage. You do t seem to realise that. And 11 students per A level class? More like 25-30. There are no advantages to taking exams early, and many disadvantages. Even a student capable of a top grade gains nothing by taking the A level at 15, and if they don’t get the top grade, they are stuck with having to explain why not, forever after, especially if they go on to get a top grade 2 years later, and have that spoilt by always having to declare both grades. What do you think that looks like?

Regardless of early entry A Levels @0None0 (which is not really the topic of the thread) please please please if you are in a position of advising sixth form students from disadvantaged backgrounds do NOT advise them that no RG will look at them unless they have voluntary or work experience.

That really and truly isn't the case. All unis are desperate to recruit such students. Telling them they need extras such as the above only serves to perpetuate the myth that so called top tier unis are not for disadvantaged kids. We work bloody hard to try and get such kids to apply, and to have that work undone by sixth form advisors is frankly pretty depressing.

Russell Group.

Double l.