Another path to greatness - part III

[chopc]

Here is the new thread

As quest1on suggests, this year is a shitshow.

I think diversity is a red herring. University admissions will have drilled down into the detail and will have more idea, but I suspect several factors are in play.

1. The lack of differentiation provided by this year’s results. Applicants are likely to get their predicted results, so Universities cannot offer to as many. (I suspect in other years it was assumed that some from disadvantaged educational backgrounds who had interviewed well would not then get the results needed. This probably won’t happen this year.)

1. International students. Applications ebb and flow based on a number of factors: the strength of the pound; how welcoming the US is being and how competitive US equivalents are; uncertainty at home (Hong Kong); how likely it is that students will be able to stay post graduation, . Applications are apparently up significantly this year. I read somewhere that the proportion of international students at Oxbridge had effectively doubled in a decade (if my memory is correct, from 10% to 20%.)

1. How likely British students are to take a gap year or go straight into employment. No work, no travel. People talk about panic Masters. There are probably a few panic Batchelors as well.

1. A continued shift to STEM and other quasi vocational courses.

The LSE and other top tier Universities have a problem. Because of high demand, medical schools and Oxbridge are allowed early application deadlines. Post Brexit, and the requirement to give equal treatment to EU as well as UK applicants, I hope that admission processes can be changed to allow university departments whose courses are very oversubscribed to revise their processes.

Also so sorry to both Mike and SATS DC. Despite it being a windy road they are still on a path to greatness.

@quest1on

Meanwhile, another friend of his with, it would seem, more “in the know” parents (both Oxbridge themselves) advised their DS to take a gap year and apply with grades achieved, as they knew this year would be a shitshow, particularly for more competitive courses like medicine. Looks like they were right.

There's an almost identical situation in DD's 6th form too, right down to the Oxbridge educated parents.

Still, those DC will be as caught out as the DC having to re-apply if, as my negative side suspects, this years grades are viewed as needing to be taken with a pinch of salt when compared to the predicted grades of the Y13s they will be competing with.

Thanks @Needmoresleep

The LSE and other top tier Universities have a problem. Because of high demand, medical schools and Oxbridge are allowed early application deadlines. Post Brexit, and the requirement to give equal treatment to EU as well as UK applicants, I hope that admission processes can be changed to allow university departments whose courses are very oversubscribed to revise their processes.

What would be your preferred changes to that group's admissions processes ?

Some sort of splitting of consideration of UK and international applicants. Perhaps a ringfencing of a certain number of places for UK students, which inter alia would give them a certain level of budget certainty. Perhaps an earlier application deadline for UK students, though this would need to be balanced against a desire to attract top quality students from less organised schools.

In this context it is worth remembering that 50% of the LSE's "home" students were from the EU. A lot would have been applying in their own country as well as the UK and possibly Ireland, the US and Canada. They would have needed to treat each of these applications "equally" even though the ratio of acceptances to offers was probably significantly lower.

I think the huge increase in applications to top universities is an international phenomenon this year and our DC have just been unfortunate in their timing.
I think it is a mixture of last years class deferring/reapplying because of lack of f2f teaching this year and lack of differentiation because exams have been cancelled or replaced by assessed grades.

Ivy League schools saw an increase in applications from 30-50% depending on the school.

And for many very strong applicants, LSE, with its strong name recognition, relatively simple application process and the later application deadline, is a useful fallback should MIT/Harvard etc not come through.

Do you believe LSE scrutinise PS several times as they are thought to do?

SATSmadness, I'm so sorry to hear your news. It really has been a particularly awful year for medics. We know a couple of prospective medics irl in the same situation: one has accepted an offer to study pharmacology instead, so another loss of a much-needed doctor.

mikeandike, really sorry about your Bristol news too and hope your DD has other good offers.

I don't understand why it's taken so long for some of these universities. There are people still waiting, aren't there? On TSR there seem to be LSE candidates and some for maths and economics at Warwick who were still hanging on last time I looked. It's just horrible for them, especially when they may be doing A level tests and assessments at the same time and need to be focussed, not checking UCAS Track repeatedly!

I'd also be interested to know if some of the universities in question are still admitting the same number of international students this year. I actually don't know how that works at all - are there quotas? And are they self-imposed or are there rules about numbers of overseas/home students that can be admitted?

Agree that our Year 13s have had such a shit time, and that these late rejections feel worse than Oxford/Cambridge. At least with Oxbridge there's the knowledge that very able candidates are rejected every year, and while it was tougher for our children - fewer places - they were at least all given their results at the same time, not hanging on for months and months.

I don't know what's happened elsewhere, except it seems reasonable to assume that offers to places ratios were drastically changed by some institutions/courses after exams were cancelled, and many of our children have been casualties of that.

I genuinely don't know what's meant when talk of a 'diversity ' agenda is brought up in this context. Xenia, do you mean you think state educated students are being offered places at the expense of more able independently educated ones? Because you know from this thread, surely, that these rejections of highly qualified students from places where previous years' stats suggest they'd normally have had offers, have happened across the board?

In case you missed my undignified, sweary rants about Durham last month, I have comprehensive school educated twins (one with all grade 9s at GCSE, one with all 9s but one) who were both rejected too. I can't see any evidence that what's happening this year is connected with 'diversity', if that's what you mean by it, unless I'm missing something?

Going back to the topic of the rubbish hand dealt our Year 13s, I'm getting increasingly concerned, reading other threads on this board, about the experience they will have if they start university this autumn.

My two have always been adamant they wouldn't consider a year out but I'm worried they have unrealistic expectations about how normal things will be. Obviously they're back at school full time, DH is teaching full time and I'm not sure they're fully aware how different it's been in HE this year.

Going by other threads, being at Oxford, Cambridge or Durham, say, has certainly not guaranteed a good experience or even much concern for student wellbeing.

I share your thoughts and concerns @LoonvanBoon ..........

In Oxford and Cambridge you get to live in your college for all three years but in Durham only in the first year. So if you are not allowed in .............

Cross-posted with several people there. So it looks like there aren't officially quotas for overseas students - thanks, nomoresleep, I had no idea how that worked.

SATsmadness, completely agree that this stress waiting for offers can only exacerbate the lack of a level playing field re assessments. I'm deeply unimpressed with my sons' school over this anyway, tbh. There are so many mini tests/assessments, literally several every single week going down to a week before the half-term break. One subject has scheduled one for the second to last day. This is all a panic reaction, imo, to the fact that they haven't done a single set of mock /semi-formal exams in the whole 6th form and are worried they don't have enough 'evidence' to back up their grades.

DH's school is just doing 3 spaced out weeks in which there are assessments. They have 3 sets of mock exams under their belts if they need to refer to other evidence of performance. They've also been immeasurably better in terms of live online teaching, keeping in contact with students and their families, and just about everything really.

I wish they were still having scaled-down exams: maybe with more choice, or a requirement to answer fewer questions; but I think this year's results are going to be another shitshow, and I'm far from convinced that students are all going to end up with better grades.

I have no idea whether there are unofficial quotas. I went to a talk by the then Director a few years back where he said that they were particularly keen to see more UK applicants from the north. They do quite well attracting London and BAME state school pupils, but the student body is about 70% international. Relatively little of LSE's funding comes from the UK Government (again from memory, not much more than 10%) so they both need overseas student fees and the Government has a relatively weak negotiating position. Their priorities will include the need to maintain academic excellence, so they there is a balance to be struck.

Other Universities, bar perhaps Imperial, wont have the same proportions but within departments you can get strong concentrations, so a friends DC studying STEM at Oxford has a lot of overseas students on her course. There will be a lower proportion studying, say, classics.

I suspect by the time LSE, and other places, are making decisions on marginal applicants every part of each application will have been read very carefully indeed. They are legally obliged to give equal consideration to home students, and so could be open to challenge if they don't have the evidence to back up their decisions.

It needs to be reviewed. It was pretty awful for us, as both DC (one economics, one medicine) were effectively without offers until mid March. At this point DD decided to defer for a year as she needed time off. April or beyond would have been too much. However even then one of DS' peers did not get an economics offer to top tier University, so tried again and went to Cambridge, whilst a seriously bright friend of DD's got no medicine offers, but a strong BMAT school the next year. I guess that is statistics. If you have a 50% chance of an offer at each of your top four choices, though you are likely to get a couple of offers, you can easily get four or none. (I took statistics too long ago to actually do the sums.)

@chopc

I am truly sorry for your DD SATS.

I hope she gets in through clearing for this year. On the other hand who knows - maybe her destiny is actually Oxbridge and she will be a successful re applicant next year ........

Oh @chopc !

I even can't bear to think about that option.

DD might have added an extra layer of resilience (her personal life to date hasn't been as plain sailing as others so she was already fairly resilient compared to lots of her peers) but I fear it's me, in my role as her parent, who couldn't take the nerve wracking possibility of another Oxbridge application .

jano "Is this a turning point for the reordering and ranking of institutions?" Possibly. I hope it has not gone that far and I agree with the other comment above that this is a weird year and people from all sectors and whether BAME or from the north or on free school meals etc are all finding it hard. We are not quite in Chinese Cultural Revolution times when the children of doctors were sent to the countryside to clear animal s hit all day to right the balance to ensure the elite lost their generational hold on success and power. It is certainly very hard to be "fair" (whatever fair is).

@Needmoresleep I think it's down to your statistical model of 50:50 chance rather than Unis being mindful

Either that or there are a record number of candidates with top predictions this year ......

Eg some have been told from the likes of imperial- you were good but others were better. Can't argue with that as who is judge of what's better?

So DS has been offered LSE today but sadly, is no longer excited about it at all. He’s saying he feels like they have strung him out until the very last day and for what purpose? I thought it was what he was waiting for, but it seems not. The waiting has been hideous frankly and I’m exhausted.

He’s now saying he feels like he’s been swept along in a conveyor belt with no time to stop and think this last year because it’s just been one deadline after the other. He’s saying he wants something different and isn’t sure he wants a London uni.

On the other hand, he’s watched some YouTube stuff about the college he’s been allocated to at Durham and I do have to say, it is striking that there’s not a non-white face among them. It looks like a beautiful town certainly, but he’s not sure.

He just seems really down today and is talking about a gap year and possibly reapplying to Oxbridge! I’m not sure I could stand it...

@quest1on - congratulations to your DS. I went to LSE many years ago. I only applied to London Uni’s. I hope everything settles down and he can enjoy the benefits of his hard work. I had a brilliant time at LSE.

Congratulations!

He should take as long as he is allowed to think about it. Quite possibly he has been bracing himself for a rejection, and he is presumably quite angry.

My guess is that his thinking will change over the weekend.

I would assume Durham is quite white. DD was very surprised how white Bristol University is. But then outside major urban centres Britain is very white, at least to a London raised child.

@quest1on. I think it’s perfectly understandable.. that your ds is in a bit of turmoil about this. He has really been through the wringer. It’s so hard not to feel deflated. I think if he gives it a few days.. he may come around .

@quest1on - first of all congratulations to your DS on the LSE offer.

I can see why it would seem like an anti climax.

I think he is more upset about the Cambridge decision that he let on .......

In any case he doesn't need to make any decisions until June 10th but even then if he picks a firm and an insurance, he will keep his options open for longer

If he does want to take a gap year and reapply, I think he will be successful in getting a place at Oxbridge. With regards to the other universities , city universities are likely to be more diverse than the non city ones so pick wisely next year if this is important.

When I was going to Uni it was so important that there was a large diverse population as I didn't really have friends from my background growing up. I craved this and in fact in one of my interviews I said that's one of the reasons I picked that Uni (yes I still got an offer). So if this was important to your DS too he should look at Unis where diversity is great.

However I do believe all universities are becoming more and more diverse with time and I don't envisage mixing within the student body to be an issue. There will be all kinds of people everywhere and your DS will find his tribe.

(For what it's worth my DS has mentioned there are quite a few Indian students on the Collingwood chat) and from the Durham Facebook page many applicants have foreign names so even if they are white, they are probably from diverse backgrounds

Thanks yes, maybe. It doesn’t help that he’s on Discord chats where they’re all saying the uni is totally unsupportive once you’re there as well! He also has UCL but he thinks that would be the same.

I think we’ll go and visit Durham when his exams are over in 2 weeks because it’s such different experiences. I don’t know what to advise, but mainly I want him to feel excited about wherever he goes.

If he reapplies for C again, I don’t know what would be different this time around. He’s heard that if you have 3 A* achieved, you are automatically pooled, but so what really, as he was pooled this year. I think hardly anyone got taken out and even in a normal year, it’s only about 20%.

Basically, he applied to a college where someone had deferred and there was only one more place. He’s now saying if he deferred he’d go for a college with more places... aaaagggh!

Thanks chop. Is your DS firming Durham then, do you think?

Yes he is. Still waiting for UCL to decide his fee status so he can pick between that and LSE as his insurance. Don't see it being an issue but they haven't released the form he has to fill out yet

Good for him chop. I think Durham is an excellent choice for history, particularly.

Thanks so much also for the positive feedback needmoresleep, Parker and Longtime. He is very lucky to have the choices he has and I realise that, particularly in the year which has been very unfair for so many. I think a lot of this is exam stress talking. Also he has various friends suddenly deferring.