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Medicine 2022 entry - How difficult is it really? *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

999 replies

notmedicmum · 10/12/2020 15:43

I couldn't find a thread for 2022 entrants to medicine - maybe I didn't look hard enough! DD is in Year 12 and has wanted to do medicine since Year 10. It's only this year that we realise the enormity of actually getting a place. Not only do you have to have brilliant grades, you must also have done work experience, volunteered (both difficult in the current situation), got excellent BMAT/UCAT scores. Oh, and you also must have cycled from Land's End to John O'Groats to raise money for charity or climbed Kilimanjaro or won the Nobel Peace prize or found a cure for cancer (joking about the last two). How competitive is it REALLY? I'm not sure about the value of the last apart from being used as a selection tool as the unis get so many qualified applicants - and showing enterprise and drive. Apparently this sort of thing is even more important this year as getting work experience is very hard this year. How does climbing a mountain make you a better doctor anyway? And what can normal students do to improve their chances of success??

OP posts:
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ClarasZoo · 21/08/2021 20:14

Thank you Mumsneedwine and peppermint - very useful!

bimkom · 22/08/2021 12:41

BTW we swerved Birmingham (it was on our shortlist) because it seemed to us that without contextual points an interview would be very difficult, but several other applicants from DSs school got badly caught out by this and didn't get an interview. I don't know if anybody has done an FOI request finding out how many applicants without contextual points got an offer from Birmingham.
Also while Liverpool interviewed a lot, the ratio of interview to offer was very low, and many of those they did make an offer to, they offered for 2022 (even though they applied for 2021). Some of those they then converted to 2021 offers when it was clear how many people had firmed them, but I don't know how many. But it is worth bearing in mind that Liverpool from the beginning offered quite a few for 2022. Again, a FOI might be available to find out how many of those were accepted (people on the TSR thread, who were hoping to go in 2021 were, understandably, firming other offers if they had any, and a fair number were hoping that theirs would convert).

bimkom · 22/08/2021 12:45

If you have the time (and it is a fair time commitment), reading through the TSR thread for a given medical school from the previous year gives you a lot of information (along with a large number of "has anything happened yet" posts) - including when they started interviewing, when they started offering, how they offered. Obviously the more the criteria have changed, the less useful that information is, but it gives you a sense on the ground, rather than discovering things late in the day. A lot of the interviews were very late this year - some of the universities in fact communicated that their interviewers were on the wards dealing with Covid and hence not available.

Chilldonaldchill · 22/08/2021 12:46

For Birmingham this year I do know people who were interviewed (and actually offered) without contextual points but they all had > 9 X 9s at GCSE.

GANFYD · 22/08/2021 13:29

@bimkom

BTW we swerved Birmingham (it was on our shortlist) because it seemed to us that without contextual points an interview would be very difficult, but several other applicants from DSs school got badly caught out by this and didn't get an interview. I don't know if anybody has done an FOI request finding out how many applicants without contextual points got an offer from Birmingham. Also while Liverpool interviewed a lot, the ratio of interview to offer was very low, and many of those they did make an offer to, they offered for 2022 (even though they applied for 2021). Some of those they then converted to 2021 offers when it was clear how many people had firmed them, but I don't know how many. But it is worth bearing in mind that Liverpool from the beginning offered quite a few for 2022. Again, a FOI might be available to find out how many of those were accepted (people on the TSR thread, who were hoping to go in 2021 were, understandably, firming other offers if they had any, and a fair number were hoping that theirs would convert).
Yes, it looks like you needed a UCAT of 2790+ for a non-contextual interview at Birmingham, even with full GCSEs. That is why they have reduced contextual points weighting for this year, as I think it messed up their planned balance of interviews last year!!

Liverpool interviewed 10% fewer people but made 40% fewer offers and their interview to offer ratio was

pinkfizzy · 22/08/2021 14:01

@GANFYD

(Complete novice non-medic parent here, with DS about to start A levels)

How do you find out interview : offer ratios? Where is it published?

Thank you - I'm learning lots!

GANFYD · 22/08/2021 14:05

[quote pinkfizzy]@GANFYD

(Complete novice non-medic parent here, with DS about to start A levels)

How do you find out interview : offer ratios? Where is it published?

Thank you - I'm learning lots![/quote]
I will get slated for discussing stats, but most people find it helpful.
Some med schools publish them on their website, eg Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle and lots of others. Otherwise check out FOI requests (or put your own in!). Problem is, some med schools will only release them at the end of a cycle, and some even claim this is after the UCAS deadline, so you are always running a year behind.
Do ask if you are interested in anywhere in particular and I can let you know (if I have the info) 😊
All this is a steep learning curve, I was there myself a few years ago!

KingscoteStaff · 22/08/2021 14:15

So how will waiting lists work alongside the established 'firm and insurance' set up?

mumsneedwine · 22/08/2021 14:29

@KingscoteStaff I think they'll hold a lot of people on waiting lists & release an offer only when someone declines them. If you accept other places you would be rejecting other Med schools so off the other lists.
The effect of this will be v v late decisions as most people don't firm until they know if coming off list, but can't move up list until others decline. Which they don't do because they are awaiting too !
I may be totally wrong though 😊

bimkom · 22/08/2021 14:43

I believe at least some of the waiting lists (eg Sheffield) you are only stay on if you haven't received other offers (or in theory have declined an offer, but I don't believe anybody declined a firm offer for medicine in the hope they move up the waiting list). So basically everybody firmed their offers (plus insurance) and then after that they look around at who they still had on their waiting list, and whether they thought they had spots. They could offer then (eg June/July - I know Leicester did that, as somebody on TSR on a gap year got an offer from the waiting list in about that time) or more alternatively wait until results day to find out how many have made the grades and how many gaps they have. This year of course there were none, as far as I am aware, but next year presumably if there really are exams it will go back to more normal in that respect, with people getting offers from the waiting list on results day.

bimkom · 22/08/2021 14:54

Yes, it looks like you needed a UCAT of 2790+ for a non-contextual interview at Birmingham, even with full GCSEs.

I think it must have been higher than that, because one of the boys at DS's school got only one interview and offer, and that was at Bristol. Given Bristol's cut off for interview, Birmingham must have been higher than Bristol's for non contextual, and we know how high that was (unless this student didn't have the requisite GCSEs, but I would be surprised).

KingscoteStaff · 22/08/2021 15:02

So it's as though each individual med school runs its own clearing system?

GANFYD · 22/08/2021 15:23

@bimkom

Yes, it looks like you needed a UCAT of 2790+ for a non-contextual interview at Birmingham, even with full GCSEs.

I think it must have been higher than that, because one of the boys at DS's school got only one interview and offer, and that was at Bristol. Given Bristol's cut off for interview, Birmingham must have been higher than Bristol's for non contextual, and we know how high that was (unless this student didn't have the requisite GCSEs, but I would be surprised).

The way Birmingham's deciles work, 2790-2900 was scored the same www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/medical-school/applying-to-medicine/selection-for-interview.aspx It seemed you needed full GCSEs and Birmingham's 9th decile, if non-contextual, ot 10th decile and could drop a GCSE grade Birmingham sometimes catches people out as Eng Lit requires an 8/9
GANFYD · 22/08/2021 15:38

@KingscoteStaff

So it's as though each individual med school runs its own clearing system?
Waiting lists run separately from UCAS, and a UCAS decision will show as rejected. The med school should then contact the applicant and ask if they wish to remain on the waiting list, as UCAS guidance says they should not contact applicants they have rejected or who are holding offers from other places (though I have know people ignore that). Then, if places become available after the UCAS deadline or on results day, they go to the people who met the cut off for interview, but narrowly missed an offer at interview, and offer them a place. Some places have run them for years, as saves starting again with Clearing etc. Usually, around 40% of people achieve the grades they are predicted (probably a bit more for medicine level predictions), so med schools (unis in general) are pretty good at knowing their conversion rates from offer to Firm or Insurance choice who will then achieve the grades. That was messed up this year, as there were nearly twice the number of As and A*s given at A level compared to 2019, so many more met offers than they had anticipated - though HOW they did not anticipate the grade inflation, I do not know, as I think most people could see what was coming a mile off. They also had places taken by enforced deferrals from the CAGs debacle and u-turn of 2020 and had to hold places for those resitting CAGs who had missed their offer but were allowed to "resit". Not enough adjustments were made for all of this, hence the scramble to get people to move/defer. I suspect all of that will make them lairy of making so many offers upfront this year, and waiting lists are a good way to keep options open for those who would usually have got an offer, but this year, they want to wait and see. Of course, there is a risk that some of those will have accepted offers elsewhere, so both the uni and the student potentially miss out on what they want! That is what happened, to an extent, this year. Lots of unis put a chunk of people "on hold" whilst they waited to see the decisions of those already made offers, then eked out more offers as they heard. This created a log jam, as eg those on hold at Edinburgh couldn't accept or decline an offer at eg Newcastle, as they had no decision, meaning someone who wanted Newcastle, did not make a decision on eg Cardiff, as waiting to hear and it became like a massive house-buying chain, where your move depended on someone's offer 100s of miles away, who had nothing to do with you at all and over which you have no control!
KingscoteStaff · 23/08/2021 21:53

DD is set on Bristol and Newcastle.

She's Tier 2 at Exeter, so that's a possibility.

She's really gutted that Nottingham and Edinburgh seem out of reach as she doesn't have Band 1.

Liverpool and Birmingham are possibles, so we are going to have a look round both this weekend.

She's also still mulling over doing BMAT for Leeds.

Gosh it's complicated...

GANFYD · 23/08/2021 22:06

@KingscoteStaff

DD is set on Bristol and Newcastle.

She's Tier 2 at Exeter, so that's a possibility.

She's really gutted that Nottingham and Edinburgh seem out of reach as she doesn't have Band 1.

Liverpool and Birmingham are possibles, so we are going to have a look round both this weekend.

She's also still mulling over doing BMAT for Leeds.

Gosh it's complicated...

Exeter have changed their shortlisting process this year and is 75% A levels, 25% UCAT with no advantage for achieved grades. Tiers have gone! Much lower grades needed for contextuals, so I suspect cut offs will be reasonably high. They also cannot work deciles, as have only listed 9, so if interested, check exactly how they are scoring UCAT, as deciles are made up of 10...... www.exeter.ac.uk/media/universityofexeter/recruitmentsites/docs/bmbs_detailed_admissions_process2022entry_v4.pdf
GANFYD · 23/08/2021 22:11

@KingscoteStaff do also note that Birmingham are using SJT as 25% of interview scoring, with 50% for the MMI stations, 25% for a calculation station and 25% for the SJT, so a B2 will be starting at a slight disadvantage (about 8% of total, it seems).
MMIs are online and they say:
"The decision whether an offer is made is based on the interview performance data as well as a score derived from your SJT result from UCAT. A total score will be derived as follows:
Interview/role play station scores (x2) - 50%
Calculation station score - 25%
UCAT SJT result - 25%
The maximum score for each component will be the same. The following scoring system will be applied to the SJT result:
Band 1 = Maximum score
Band 2 = 2/3 of maximum
Band 3 = 1/3 of maximum
Band 4 = 0"

KingscoteStaff · 23/08/2021 22:28

Thanks, @GANFYD - Exeter’s 9 deciles had been confusing me! Sounds like Liverpool would be a good bet for DD.

GANFYD · 23/08/2021 22:33

@KingscoteStaff

Thanks, *@GANFYD* - Exeter’s 9 deciles had been confusing me! Sounds like Liverpool would be a good bet for DD.
She has LOADS of options. Just tough when they have to re-calibrate from places they had favoured early on. But there are some great medical schools in brilliant places to be a student, so she will almost certainly have a great time, wherever she ends up. And my son was like Monkey's and ended up rejecting Edinburgh as he thought they had a little too high an opinion of themselves! And #2 thought the same at Birmingham, but they both liked lots of her other options
MidLifeCrisis007 · 24/08/2021 10:37

It really baffles me why places like Exeter put so much emphasis on predicted/achieved grades. Surely they must know that predicted grades and CAGS say as much about the school as the student? It's particularly meaningless for the new year 13s who for the most part got generous CAGS for their GCSEs too.

If there has ever been a year when the emphasis should be on the UCAT/BMAT and interview this is it!

mumsneedwine · 24/08/2021 11:02

@MidLifeCrisis007 baffles most of us. Although as has been said they are using UCAT a bit more this year. If you have 3 A star predictions and a good UCAT it's a good choice. Trouble is the numbers with A star predictions applying will increase because of this, potentially pushing UCAT up.
Conversely I can see less applying to Bristol and Sheffield after the big jump last year. This could bring the UCAT down (happened at Newcastle a few years ago).
However, nothing about this year will be normal. Not all my students are contextual and so strategic applying is going to be soo important.
Remember though, someone has to get those places and no reason why it shouldn't be all your kids !

SandyBayley · 24/08/2021 11:38

@KingscoteStaff - our DD's May yet meet at either Bristol or Newcastle! DD would have liked a slightly higher UCAT but feels like she didn't 'warm up' for her VR but she did get Band 1. I think she'd swap her Band 1 for a higher UCAT- never satisfied.

She is taking BMAT for Oxford and Leeds. I think it will suit her as she's quite an all rounder and as an IB student she's still writing essays.

KingscoteStaff · 24/08/2021 12:06

@SandyBayley I think DD would do well in the BMAT too (she's doing Eng Lit as her 3rd), but she doesn't want the Oxbridge teaching format so she'd really be doing it just for Leeds, which seems a bit of an overkill.

I'm listening to lots of monologues starting 'Well, if 20% of students get a SJT band 1 and if they all apply to Nottingham and if most of them also apply to Oxbridge but some of them won't have as good a UCAT total as me but then a few will have 4 A star predictions and then what about the people who have TAGs of 4 A stars already... Mum? Mum? Why have you walked away while I was discussing this with you? Don't you CARE about my future?'

Solarlantern · 24/08/2021 12:07

My DS is looking at Birmingham (the online calculator says likely to be interviewed with 8.2 but I think quite a few people got caught out by the calculator last year!) as he has a Band 1 and is contextual but the 25% of the calculation station post interview is something he needs to look into - looks like quite a different approach to other places and with a 25% score for that element quite easy to trip up on?

Needmoresleep · 24/08/2021 12:08

MidlifeCrisis, and others that are baffled, I am sure that medschools would love to be able to rely on an aptitude test. However data suggests that none, apart from STEP for maths, are particularly good at predicting future performance.

UCAT and BMAT are filters as are A levels. Needed because too many qualified applicants are applying. Medical schools will know that some very good applicants will underperform at UCAT, perhaps because of a bad day, perhaps because they speak another language at home, perhaps because they are less good at speed tests, perhaps because they went to Welsh medium schools. Putting different weight on different filters allows medical schools to fish good applicants from slightly different pools, and perhaps identify applicants who are better suited to their teaching styles. And also encourage the more suitable applicants in their direction.

In practice a medicine degree is not that demanding for a science-y child. The academic bar is normally As, including chemistry, but beyond that, other than for the more academically focussed courses, having As does not give you much advantage. Other science degrees can be different. DD intercalated in engineering last year, and though her peers had similar, if not better academic credentials, some found even the pre-sessional course quite a shock. Not surprising given A, if not 2xA* is a normal prerequisite for an engineering course. (It was quite funny as DD found some students extraordinarily sniffy about being at "better" medical schools, until it became clear that they were not natural mathematicians.) Medicine instead, especially the more hands on courses, require a lot of complementary skills that engineers won't need to the same extent.

There will be some people lurking on this thread whose DC got poor UCAT scores. Mine was lucky as when she was applying Bristol used neither BMAT or UCAT, but at the time it was very worrying that despite a strong academic track record (she took 5 A levels and had strong predictions in all) and bags of volunteering, extra curricular, leadership and shadowing, her chance of being a doctor might be taken away. Simply because she is dyslexic with very slow processing. How is that fairer?

I would add that every year a few people message me for a handhold, as these threads often end up, like TSR, being simply for the overachieving 4 offer types. In the same way as I did to posters before me. (Waves at GoodbyeStranger, Peternas, AlreadyTaken.) I had a lovely message a few weeks back from someone whose son is about to go into his fourth year, and thriving, after one late interview which led to an offer. A poor UCAT is a pain and makes life more difficult, more difficult than it should, but not insuperable. I hope that medical schools start rowing back and start looking at the wider picture rather than increase their use of what is a very imperfect filter.