Going into Year 13 - Uni entry 2021 - have they been forgotten?

[albicocca]

Is anyone else concerned about the children just about to start Year 13 and their opportunities for university entry in 2021? I have seen virtually no discussion about how this A level shambles might effect them. It seems to me there will inevitably be fewer university places for next year. Many of those who planned to go to uni this year will be deferring their places to 2021 (indeed some universities are offering money for them to do so now!) resulting in far fewer places. The current group will also have (on average) higher grades than next years cohort. So those taking A levels in 2021 will be competing for fewer places with lower grades. Have they been forgotten? What is the government doing to protect their opportunities too?

To be fair, there have been quite a lot of imputations cast on these threads by Y12 mamas as to the validity of the Y13s grades. Completely ignoring the fact that the overwhelming majority of grades received on results day/ after moderation were sufficient or more than sufficient or way more than sufficient for students to satisfy the offer grades for their first choice of uni.

@goodbyestranger the problem is that the it has gone from 25% A*A to 39% which is ridiculous. I know some got those grades before CAG's were given but lots of others didn't and I know from friends with Year 13's who didn't initially get in but have now been given a place for next year which will impact those going into Year 13 this year

DD4 tells me that it seemed as though everyone on the large social media group for her Oxford college achieved their offers on results day. She only knew of a single person who didn't, although that person was accepted on results day ahead of the U turn on CAGs.

Missed out the almost there. Almost everyone.

Far be it from me to say any young person doesn’t deserve a uni place because quite frankly, I wouldn’t have got into Oxbridge etc so who am I to comment .

Yes significantly more people have A*/ A this year. I don’t begrudge any young person good grades. To be honest, even when there are exams, it’s far from “fair.” I think I heard one in four papers are marked wrongly . In DS’ GCSEs he got nine 9s and two 8s. The 8s were only one or two marks off a 9, so the school said send them back for a remark. There was a fee, but the exam board only charge if the grade doesn’t go up, which both did. Quite a few of his friends bumped 8s up to 9s in this way. But I’m very aware that not everyone would be able to afford the fee in the first place, or their school might not advise them about remarks (it wouldn’t have occurred to me). So is that fair? No.

Its always an imperfect system so if students can get better grades - take them and run with it, I say

I just hope there’s enough uni places for next year, that’s all and the govt are not just passing the problem of disadvantage over, so that 2021 become the victims of their ineptitude.

Indeed exams aren’t fair for a thousand reasons. It’s fairer that CAGs were awarded based on ‘a good day’. With this is mind there’s bound to be an uplift and rightly so. This is actually fairer as so many kids lose out due to a bad day. I didn’t have DC in this years exam fiasco but I still think it’s a fairer system than end of year exams. Needs to be made robust with moderation etc though.

I think there is an argument for not having exams at 16's, but you still need a standardised system for graduating at 18. Every other country does, why should we be different? We do have a reputation for too many age related examinations, but on the whole, we are not as rigid as many other countries who siphon children off at various stages dependent on ability.

My brother works in uni admissions and they are all literally tearing their hair out. They feel stuck with almost a thousand extra students who want their pre covid 'offers' honoured. Most of these students would never have made the grade (pardon the pun) if the cags debacle had not happened. The uni simply does not have the lecture space, accommodation, placements, labs, resources to house an extra thousand students. It's chaos.

His uni has its hands tied and know that offers for next year will be nowhere near this years, they will resist over offering and stick to clearing instead, and 2021 cohort will not have the same level playing field every other cohort in previous years had. Offers for courses like med/vet/ dentistry will be massively curtailed.

This massively impacts this years yr 13 who will be facing less places, less offers, AND competition from 2020 cohort many of whom have inflated grades.

My brother works in uni admissions

offers for next year will be nowhere near this years, they will resist over offering and stick to clearing instead, and 2021 cohort will not have the same level playing field every other cohort in previous years had.

I'm assuming that the university would not be wildly happy at being named, in case that swung the pendulum and it found itself very dependent on Clearing?

I suspect clearing could be huge for this cohort, involving institutions who don't usually get much involved with it.

@MarchingFrogs

My brother works in uni admissions

offers for next year will be nowhere near this years, they will resist over offering and stick to clearing instead, and 2021 cohort will not have the same level playing field every other cohort in previous years had.

I'm assuming that the university would not be wildly happy at being named, in case that swung the pendulum and it found itself very dependent on Clearing?

It’s a pretty poor tactic of the university. Uni seems to rely heavily on students having bad days and not making their grades. Could be a fraction of a percentage in it.

I see that the universities minister (or some such title) is doing a live q&a on the student room this afternoon.

Looking at the questions posted, it seems that the overriding concern is the amount of applicants this year (real cohort + post A Level applicants with achieved grades and those retaking). Anecdotally masses appear to be withdrawing from going this year and upgrading their aspirations based on achieved grades. Furthermore some courses are half full already for next year with people who had to defer.

I suppose it’s up to individual universities how they are going to work it, but I think this year’s yr 13s deserve honesty, even if it’s to confirm that they’re stuffed.

That doesn't sound good.

Tweet from Cambridge: We are pleased to be welcoming a record number of new undergraduates in October, including highest ever number of state school students. No student has been required to defer entry to 2021.

That’s interesting - I wonder how they have managed that for the medicine students?

Yes,LaFlottes I was wondering exactly the same thing.

@IrmaFayLear I listened to the q&a. The University Minister made a lot of reassuring noises. Not sure whether to believe her or not. She did at least seem aware of the issue, but given this government's previous record of letting crises happen, because of lack of planning and forethought, I confess I feel a bit sceptical about whether that awareness will translate into anything being done.

Morning all!
Anyone else feeling a little unsettled about how this term for our Y13s is going to pan out? Given numbers have risen, lack of testing etc it looks like they will have quite a bit of disruption to teaching this term.

Yes. I am trying not to catastrophize - there are many in the same boat - but I'm very conscious of every week passing and keeping my fingers crossed she can keep the face to face lessons she has. Her 6th form college are only back 50% at the moment and 50% online, Which I am happy with if it keeps them from closing or sending too many kids home if they get a positive case.

I'm more concerned about University applications and the impact of lack of open days at the moment.

@fortyfifty it’s like running the gauntlet a bit isnt it? Everyday that passes I hope no cases

at DD’s college. Not helped by the fact she has a new teacher for one subject who doesn’t ‘believe’ in powerpoints or online Lessons and has quite an old fashioned style of teaching - DD worried if college closure, the teaching will be poor!
I agree re uni applications. I read somewhere that figures for places for 2021 entry will be available end of October. Anyone heard similar?

Not heard anything about the end of October but it would be good to have figures although this will be too late for those doing early applications.
Had a look at the Bath website and it said that they were full on results day alone and that anyone then achieving with their CAGS was moved to 2021. I don't think they have a big intake anyone and so this will have massive consequences. And typically my son fancies Bath.

The huge uncertainty of next year's application cycle is compounded by the potential for school disruption .... as my DD has now found out after only 9 days of term - a boy in her year tested positive and now she has to self-isolate for 14 days.

I am so annoyed by school's approach as the decision has been made to continue with class teaching for the majority, with the self-isolating ones making do with assignments being set on a daily basis. At least if the whole year group was being taught online, they would all get the same input.

My DD is studying 4 A-levels and I'm finding it hard to be supportive of the school's emergency plan.

@Millylovespuddles that must be sooo frustrating and is actually the one scenario that worries me the most. As if our kids didn’t have enough inequalities to deal with during lockdown ,they dont need to have the stress of wondering if their assignments are as of good quality as their peers face to face teaching while they are the minority self isolating.
I agree it’s hard staying upbeat for them too. 2 weeks in and it’s stressful already!

Sewingbeefan it would be good to get that clarification but end of October is late. We are planning a drive around some of the university towns Dd is l planning to put on her ucas. Not only should she hold off on submitting her application, it looks like we should hold back on doing those visits.

Bath is on DD's list too.

Perhaps I'll contact admissions of each uni.

@Fortyfifty I totally agree and it’s terrible that our DC are in this situation timewise.

DD did virtual open days, some were awful... Bristol took 30 minutes on the day to log into!
She is relying on her knowledge gained from trips to uni cities in the past visiting family and friends. ( personally am an expert on the layout of Liverpool if any use to anyone!!)Just hoping offer holder days will be possible face to face.