University 2020 :8: Use the CAGs, don’t use the CAGs...

[MillicentMartha]

...if you can use the mocks, then use the mocks but not if they're higher than the CAGs.

And hopefully on to university!

Old thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/higher_education/3993327-University-2020-7-Results-tombola-roll-up-roll-up-pick-a-prize?pg=39

@NewModelArmyMayhem18 - yes, according to OfQual's report (table 9.1), 38% of CAGs are A or A, compared with 25% of grades in 2019 being A or A.

If you compare A*-B, it's CAGs 65%, 2019 51%.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909368/6656-1_Awarding_GCSE__AS__A_level__advanced_extension_awards_and_extended_project_qualifications_in_summer_2020_-_interim_report.pdf

[quote DadDadDad]**@NewModelArmyMayhem18* - yes, according to OfQual's report (table 9.1), 38% of CAGs are A or A, compared with 25% of grades in 2019 being A or A*.

If you compare A*-B, it's CAGs 65%, 2019 51%.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909368/6656-1_Awarding_GCSE__AS__A_level__advanced_extension_awards_and_extended_project_qualifications_in_summer_2020_-_interim_report.pdf[/quote]

Does that 38% include those upgraded by the algorithm or is it just CAGs?

That's the pure CAGs - it's in their report where they are showing why it's a bad idea to just give students their CAGs!

@DadDadDad

That's the pure CAGs - it's in their report where they are showing why it's a bad idea to just give students their CAGs!

It's an unholy mess! They should have run the algorithm in June and had two months to find a way through - they should have included the universities in the whole process. Arrogance, complacency and lack of understanding of the complexities and knock-on effects. Heads really should roll.

@DadDadDad That's the same report where they say they didn't have time to attempt to standardise/ moderate CAGs. Because we live in exceptional times. Indeed. So they binned them and created an algorithm steeped in bias to put everyone in a neat place on an acceptable bell curve.
Behind every complex problem is a simple solution, but it's usually wrong. They didn't have time, presumably, to check their bias or try out their modelling on scenarios or even on last year's results to check that the outcome would be acceptable.

Well done to every single A level student who gets to move on from this shit show. Commiserations to anyone still disappointed.

And please, no talk of dumbing down top grades. It's an over-simplistic argument at the best of times. And these are anything but the best of times.

Well, if unis in 2021 are faced with a high % of A*/A deferring candidates, it's clear that they will just pre-screen applicants using GCSE grades, and students who have been given an 'uplift' via optimistic CAGs this year will be identified.

@Divoc2020 that's assuming it is the candidates with less good GCSEs that have got the 'uplift' though - it doesn't necessarily follow. Young people peak in their education at different points.

@Divoc2020

Well, if unis in 2021 are faced with a high % of A*/A deferring candidates, it's clear that they will just pre-screen applicants using GCSE grades, and students who have been given an 'uplift' via optimistic CAGs this year will be identified.

That won't work though as deferring students will already have accepted an offered place. Unis won't be able to renege.

@NewModelArmyMayhem18 Yes, I agree (my own DS was one).
I'm just pointing out that if unis need a blunt tool to differentiate between too many qualified candidates, then this is a likely possibility.

Plus GCSEs are already used by unis to decide offers - now that AS levels are no longer a thing, they don't have much else to go on. Predicted grades (for ucas application) are well-known to be somewhat optimistic.

That won't work though as deferring students will already have accepted an offered place. Unis won't be able to renege.

Yes, that's true for students who already had offers.
I was thinking of those who were taking a gap year and only planning to apply after results.

I suspect the fall-out of this year's almighty cock-up will go on for several years.

I’m sat her feeling such a mixture of emotions,
I have friends with DC who had some very undeserved poor grades on Thursday so I’m genuinely pleased that the algorithm has been abandoned, it was far too discredited to be allowed to stand. And it’s allowed many DC to get excellent grades.
But
40% of grades now A/A*, We’re seriously moving to a situation where the best ever results are from the only group to have never sat the exams, that feels wrong too. And I know that’s not going to be a popular point of view.

I don’t know what I would’ve done differently if I was in charge - run away and hid probably!
And I accept this is probably the least bad solution. But it’s not a good solution.

The impact is not just on those coming up behind them and also on those who took exams last year.

So I’m sat here feeling pleased that the results have changed, but sad that they’ve changed by so much. And sad for my DD who worked so hard for A grades last year.

[quote DadDadDad]**@NewModelArmyMayhem18* - yes, according to OfQual's report (table 9.1), 38% of CAGs are A or A, compared with 25% of grades in 2019 being A or A*.

If you compare A*-B, it's CAGs 65%, 2019 51%.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909368/6656-1_Awarding_GCSE__AS__A_level__advanced_extension_awards_and_extended_project_qualifications_in_summer_2020_-_interim_report.pdf[/quote]
I'm sorry that is A ridiculous increase - my DS is going into Year 13 and his year have already lost teaching time and now will have a hard time getting offers from good unis

Error I have many of the same feelings but there is another way to look at it , maybe these results are a truer reflection of many students . They reflect the work over a period of time not just a snapshot on the day . Maybe we really need to think about how we assess people at this level .

My ds has fantastic grades and we are so proud of him but I would be lying if I didn’t admit that I do feel they have been devalued a bit. His school is one of those which was strict about the grading and he absolutely deserves his grades he has worked solidly and consistently throughout the 4 exam years his grades are consistent with his work over that period . I do honestly believe that if I had had to guess at Xmas what he would have got then actually it would be what he now has to deal with the fact that his results this year are to some people worth less than previous years cohorts

My DC's grades have gone up by one (one B has gone up to an A). This is the difference between getting into Cambridge and getting into the insurance university. The problem being that Cambridge is full, and the insurance university's offer is no longer there, as DC now has the grades for their first choice. I strongly suspect that Cambridge will only be available for 2021. And what do you do in an unplanned for and unwanted gap year during Covid, no deal Brexit and mass unemployment?

It’s disgusting schools are going back and re doing the CAGs, surely it can’t be allowed. How can this year’s results mean much. It’s so unfair the year 12s who will be doing exams next year after missing months of lessons and will be competing for university places next year.

Who said they are redoing the CAGs surely they have to use the ones which they sent to the board because this is what the board will put on the final certificates

I posted on the wrong thread. Someone said on a GCSE thread their school was trying to change them.

@Majaso12 the schools are not going back and re doing CAG thd Government gsve said the original CAG will stand. I don't think its fair to this years Y13 many of whom have worked very hard to attain their university offers to devalue their achievements. It's a Government mess, not the majority of schools who are trying to be fair.
Of course in a normal exam cycle out of 5 students predicted to get an A,v4 willxsnd one will drop for a whole variety of reasons, unlucky on the day, misreading a question, splitting up with a boy/girlfriend. You cannot expect teachers to he psychicand guess which one of the 5 it will be.

40% of grades now A/A, We’re seriously moving to a situation where the best ever results are from the only group to have never sat the exams, that feels wrong too*.

Universities and employers will know that the 2020 cohort A level exams are not that useful as as a result.

And this year's results won't form part of any long term trend - it will simply be excluded in any future calculations.

Very good article about the validity of CAGs and exams generally here. We really need a complete overhaul - exams have remained largely unchanged for decades whilst the working world is completely different from how it was 30 years ago. Added to this, exams are not marked consistently in a normal year so people put their trust in a system which is usually wrong 25% of the time.

www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/08/18/cags-rule-ok/

@Pippilangstrumpfie that is not altogether true. Universities will have to treat them as equal as most people deserve the grades they received and it will not be possible to know which were lucky and which deserved the grades. Smaller employers may discriminate, but large organisations will have to give people with 2020 grades the benefit of the doubt.

Thanks for that HEPI blog, @Monkey2001 . He links to his earlier article (13 Aug) where he shows how the simple impact of rounding to whole numbers can result in grade "inflation" in CAGs even where each school is trying to be fair and has justified the grades it assigns to each student.

@NewModelArmyMayhem18

I suspect the fall-out of this year's almighty cock-up will go on for several years.

The fall out of all things Covid will definitely go on for several years, not just exams!