A levels - am going crazy!

[RedHotMummy]

Using mock results for A levels? This is the last straw for my sanity. I appreciate that the government is trying to add a safety net by allowing mock results to be used for university entry but really, does this help?

There is so much wrong with this - mocks (the clue is in the title) are final results minus 4 months of slaving like a dog. They are internal exams, typically have only 1 paper (rather than 2 or 3 or 4, meaning the effect of one bad paper is amplified) and rarely cover the whole syllabus. There is no standardisation of marking across schools and grades typically given on % boundaries not a national bell curve. We had an internal bell curve on a small cohort which is the worst of both worlds. But I didn't challenge 75% being a B because, hey, it's a mock. It could now stop my daughter going to uni.

Papers are often marked to incentivise (time honoured kick-up approach) and, in my experience, some genders fare far better in the real exam than they did in mocks. Presumably all of this contributes to why unis don't look at mocks as an indicator.

As for the process, how do students get these mock grades to their unis and UCAS? Via Ofqual? How long will it take? Can papers be remarked or appealed? And for the coming Y13, watch the parents fight for good results incase this happens again. All of this when schools are supposed to be spending their energies focussing on opening this term.

As for unis, will they hold places open whilst all of this is going on as they have been asked to? Supposing your mocks get you into your insurance choice but not your firm or you don't make either: do both institutions have to keep both the places for you, pending the appeal? That means neither goes into clearing, which makes that process a joke. Then in the coming academic year, there is a minimum of one and possibly two unfilled spaces. A financial disaster for them, just as the predicted numbers of lucrative international students are unsure.

All this just as as Scottish results were upgraded, so it isn't a level playing field for those looking to go to a Scottish uni or competing for spaces with a Scottish student. On a political level, this could be canny move by Nichola S to either force the government's hand or effectively bolster support for the SNP (we'll be fair to your children').

Ofqual want to maintain the integrity of these examinations. Given the news on job losses,

Or is this a political move to pave the way for a move to CAG whilst maintaining the narrative that teachers ruined the process? Meaning we'll get CAGs next week too and it's a smorgasbord of possible results from which to pick and choose.

I am not saying CAGs are perfect or that there is an easy answer. But much of this mess was avoidable. I am no statistician or computer nerd but to have a model that incorporated not only data for the institution but also the individual (historical and predictive - mocks, GCSE results, predicted grades, CAGs) when such info is easily available doesn't seem beyond the wit of man.

Rant over.

@Coffeeandbeans they can’t use mock exams instead . They can use mock exams as part of their grounds for an appeal

Oh I see thank you.

• @RedHotMummy just lost a long post basically explaining that theres no need to worry about competing for places at Scottish unis as there is a very strict quota of places for Scottish students at unis up here but not for rest of UK students, as a result theres generally a higher entry tariff for local students than RUK ones, especially for popular courses, there are effectively two separate "pots" of places. Our controversial free uni places are effectively rationed which is a whole other story*

You might not be aware of this but the UK gov have now placed a cap on the number of English students allowed to study in Scotland.

I don't get this norm based grading system a bit.
Individual grade is based on how well/poorly a cohort in a specific area/school does compared to how previous cohorts have done. It's totally unfair.

How can a system be fair where a school is allocated X number of 7-9 grades, but let's say that in a specific year there are a lot of very bright kids? Some will lose because of the system?
It's also unfair on the other end: a very high achieving school gets allocated 2X 7-9 grades because previous cohorts have done good. Meaning kids now can get away with less knowledge and still get a better result.

It's a mess.

I know they have to appeal to get their mock grade, but they are saying they won’t get lower than their mock. So if their result is a C and the CAG was a B but they got an A in their mock, they’ll get an A on appeal, won’t they? Unless the way that the school did mocks doesn’t meet Ofqual’s criteria.

The mock isn’t just part of the appeals data. At least, that’s how it’s being reported in the news and I can’t see any official info anywhere!

@TheSunIsStillShining

On the whole, cohorts don't do wildy better or worse year on year. There are obviously some schools that do, but the majority don't.

Ofqual have looked at ks2 results to determine the strength of each school cohort and used that as part of their modelling.

teacherhead.com/2020/08/11/adjusting-cags-no-politics-no-disgrace-no-injustice-its-just-technical/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

The mock grades thing will only help outliers at schools with poor results. My ds is at risk of Grade moderation on the basis of schools results but has 4 x A* in 2 sets of mocks - so it will help him if needed (and we will only use if he doesn't get his firm). Its still a ridiculous was of approaching an appeal though - there would be better ways surely of a school being able to substantiate a queried grade before the grades published so our ds don't have to go through this farcical process.

Some schools, including my DTs’ dont have ks2 cohort data .

@Amortentia id forgotten about that, they want to keep the fees in England as falling numbers of 18 year olds and internationals means some unis are skint. Still won't be in direct comp with Scottish pupils though and lets hope the unis are flexible about missed offers, its not in anyones interest to have empty places.

@hobbema Why?
If so they'll probably all be assumed 'average'.

Sorry haven't RTFT but in case no one mentioned, typically the entrance requirements for an English student studying at a Scottish university are lower than for a Scottish student. Plus the way the funding works, an English child is much more likely to get a place (both in the first instance & through clearing).

Independent secondary school.

Do English schools not have a fairly robust way of predicting grades given that in applying to UCAS this is what students use. Unlike Scotland where it is more normal to apply once the actual results are out.

Am so incensed by Gibb that I have looking into whether there are any legal grounds for appealing the grades DCs will get tomorrow.

Anyone interested may want to take a look at the GDPR (data privacy law) as there is a section (Article 22) specifically on automated processing (which is what Ofqual have used). This appears to suggest that the right of the data subject (the student) to appeal the automated decision is enshrined in law, whatever unjust nonsense Ofqual (the data controller) has set out.

The student might not be able to appeal the ranking on this basis. It was not decided by an automated system and could perhaps be the performance of a contract between the school and student.

Can you hear the lawyers sharpening their pencils, Gavin?

Article 22

1. The data subject shall have the right not to be subject to a decision based solely on automated processing, including profiling, which produces legal effects concerning him or her or similarly significantly affects him or her.

2. Paragraph 1 shall not apply if the decision:

(a) is necessary for entering into, or performance of, a contract between the data subject and a data controller;

...

(c) the data controller shall implement suitable measures to safeguard the data subject's rights and freedoms and legitimate interests, at least the right to obtain human intervention on the part of the controller, to express his or her point of view and to contest the decision.

This is actually covered on the A level support group (Facebook). It could apply to cohorts of 15 plus, but the feeling was that the teacher ranking would mean that the whole process was not automated.

@Frazzled6 - I didn't know there was a FB Group - thank you. Interestingly, the ICO has apparently confirmed (orally) that it would consider such an appeal (which doesn't guarantee success but probably guarantees delay).

We are dealing with GCSEs here too, so double whammy, fun time, party party in my house at the moment.

The extra Scottish uni places - I assume this will be possible due to taking the international student places. I think this was part of the decision to do this as numbers are so down. If 16% get better results than predicted - great - that helps fill the funding gap.

The extra Scottish places for Scottish students doesn’t close the funding gap unless they can fit them in without any additional resources being required by the universities. The amount funded by Scot Gov only covers approx 80% of the cost. International (non EU) and English students help close this gap - that’s why there are different entrance requirements depending on domicile.

So are Scottish students still waiting to hear about their places? A week later?

Surely a student at 80%fees is better than no student - I can only guess that n sturgeon etc agreed all this with unis before announcing so the money must be there?

I think so - those that missed their place need to wait for UCAS to update based on the new grades that they will/have been sent by the SQA. John Swinney did ask for the universities to keep those places. I don’t have a DC in the process this year so don’t know the timeline, so could be wrong, but can imagine they are working to update ASAP.

@Frazzled6 PS on the GDPR point, I confess to be rather confused so may need to research this further (after tomorrow).

I had understood that if rankings determine the grade, then there is human input (although not from the data controller, so query if that matters). However, if the grades are determined by data (and not by ranking) then there perhaps isn't the necessary human element. Of course this is for the over 15pax cohorts as they don't refer to CAGs.

The Ofqual model will be looked at closely and my sense is that they didn't foresee these issues.

The grade awarded ('decision') isn't solely on an automated process though. There's a major element of personal process involved (teacher assessment).

Even with significant moderation, the main process by which grades are awarded is the ranking by teachers, which isn't being changed.

There isn't a process which randomly allocates a B grade to the top ranked A grade kid, whilst keeping the rest of the A graders grade safe.

@JacobReesMogadishu

As a lecturer I want to know if ucas have the mock results to hand for tomorrow morning. I need to know how many applicants have met their grades or we can't offer anything via clearing. Or not on the day anyway.

In short, no. English schools have not been asked to submit mock grades anywhere. O. course, all my students got A* in every subject in their mocks

This decision is an utter farce.

In seriousness, 6th form staff are ready to confirm mock grades for university staff for any of our pupils whose offer is under scrutiny.

We were a school that had spent a lot of time modelling past performance and insisting to departments that submitted grades needed to be realistic so that we weren't downgraded. Why did we bother?
We could have let boards decide the grades and saved hours of work

Do English schools not have a fairly robust way of predicting grades given that in applying to UCAS this is what students use. Unlike Scotland where it is more normal to apply once the actual results are out.

Predicted grades are notoriously inaccurate. In fact most predicted grades are wrong. It’s crazy that university admissions are largely based on predicted grades where they are so blatantly worthless for most candidates. There are plenty of reports and stats available online on this.