@BackforGood
It's so difficult, isn't it?
So much "what if" or "I think that..." or "I presume" .....
It is just such a strange year.
We seem to have gone from 'nobody will want to go this year so those of our dc will be able to get into courses asking for better grades than we anticipated' to the last I've heard which is 'applications for places is up 29 000 over last year so our dc are not likely to get aspirational places'
Of course, all without our dc being able to do anything to influence or improve their grade.
I feel drained, and I'm "only" the parent, not the 18 yr old trying to figure all this out.
Plenty of UCAS applicants this year. Some international candidates apply directly, though and they seem to be the ones who are lacking. Universities can only take up to 5% extra over their planned numbers to compensate for loss of internationals but it’s still a low birth rate year, as was last year, so the competition for places may be less challenging wrt grades even if not in numbers. Some may choose to defer once they have their results which may add to clearing, if they are concerned about the whole uni experience being spoilt. Conversely others may decide that gap years aren’t worth it during a time of few jobs and possibly restricted travel.
It’s all guesswork, though, as you say. 