Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

It’s Year 12 maths and science students that will get hit the most because the unis look less favourably on deferrals for these subjects (as relevant work experience is harder to come by and also fears that they forget a lot over the year). For something like Politics or Geography or similar, a gap year could strengthen you application if you did relevant voluntary work, here or overseas. But obviously this won’t be financially viable for everyone.

I think DS will have to defer now in light of all this because probably all unis will do the same. Not sure whether he should actually apply for a deferred place, or wait and apply with grades in hand (assuming he got them)?! For his course he could easily do overseas voluntary work.

Thanks hobbema.

I’m not sure why international students will be affected for 2021 entry though? China is out of lockdown already. If anything, there’s likely to be a surge due to pent-up demand. Probably there will be a system by which overseas students can have guaranteed deferred offers too? The unis will need their fees most of all.

Anyway, don’t unis have quotas for the balance of home and overseas students?

Given that future lockdowns are likely, it may be that students from far overseas would be uncomfortable committing to a degree course in the UK.

There are many Year 12 students who are effectively missing a whole term of education as it is. Students with no access to computers even, or those trying to study in isolation all day in extremely difficult home situations. Totally unfair that some schools are delivering the full curriculum online, while others are delivering next to nothing. And now there will probably only be a fraction of the university places for these students at the end if it.

Unis won’t reduce their overseas quotas - they will need the money, especially in a recession. They could do, but they won’t.

Totally agree swthree about how hard it is for year 12s in unsupportive situations. Inequalities will be more entrenched after this period. It’s tragic for less well off children from difficult homes - the safety-net of school has been removed and many will be suffering horribly.

I dont think Oxbridge are in financial dire straits @swthree. And I think flyonawalk has a good point. Many people will be considering the potential for serial lockdowns and whether study overseas is worth the risk. Its a bit OTT to say there will only be a fraction of the usual places available, though Im totally sympathetic to the predicament of your DC and the cohort generally. Things might be clearer when UCAS Deadline closes at the end of May and then again once results are out. Nothing to stop your DC going full on for the supracurricular stuff that they need for a strong application . I really do wish them good luck.

Yes good luck and blessings to your DC, swthree. It is horrible to feel that odds are stacked against them. So much is unknown about further education (and everything else) at this time.

I don't think Oxford will follow suit.

However perhaps y12s who would have chosen Cambridge may now opt for Oxford and thus Oxford places for 2021 be under pressure that way.

Oxford always has more applicants per place than Cambridge though, so they should probably factor that in (NatSci and possibly Engineering are the exceptions).

I do think the current year 13s should have the chance to prove themselves in an exam, but what they should have done, is had the exams in early September. Presumably, in the case of most Oxbridge offer-holders, they would have only missed the grade in one subject. So a proportion would be taking just one exam in most cases. If the govt was more organised, they could have put a task-force on this and got them all marked very quickly, so places could still have been taken up in the October.

Why do the exams need to be in October anyway?

Not everyone can even afford to take a gap year.

DS is very p**ed off today. He was supposed to have online exams straight after Easter which they thought were key to predicted grades. So he’s been full-in revising for 3 weeks. Now they’ve sent an email saying that the online tests will just be regular topic tests. They will be given probable predicted grades in June, but now the “real” exams will be in the first week of Sept. So, just when lockdown might possibly start to ease, they’ll be expected to be in full revision over the summer - again. No time to recharge properly over the summer. He has the EPQ to finish as it is. Then the actual mocks straight after Xmas. All the Oxbridge malarkey in the Autumn term with the prospect of (I would estimate) 30% of places been taken. It just feels incessant and it’s going to take its toll on people’s mental health, I think.

Interesting email from St Andrews today (DD's insurance offer). They confirm that the academic year, including orientation week, will start as planned on the published dates in September. But they've committed to providing everything both online and face-to-face for as long as it takes, so that students who aren't able to travel to Scotland can still start their studies. I take this as a strong indication that a university with a very high proportion of international students does not want to lose them!

DD had that email from St A too Chicken... we felt the timings probably not a coincidence! I think it makes sense to hope for the best, plan for the worst. DH and I have both have covid 19, now in a Public Health England surveillance programme which means the kids all get tests for asymptomatic infection . Maybe we’ll be talking about passports for immunity to start University. Its all so odd. ( I know we have no idea if immunity is maintained etc etc).

The trouble with your September plan swthree is that many Oxbridge offer holders will have insurance universities that start in September for eg St Andrews as is the case for DD and plenty might well decide to take that route rather than more uncertainty and limbo.. Also, results on August 13th , exams in September doesnt leave much time to revise a whole syllabus , bearing in mind they will have been relatively geared down for months.

Yes, DD was quite pleased by the email from Cambridge, but if she did miss her grades I could see her opting to start at St Andrews immediately rather than defer for a year. She's already feeling that six months of having to organise her own education is too much and has never had any desire for a gap year.

I think it’s quite likely that most unis will honour the places though for 2021, if they achieve the required grades in October.

For DS’ course, somewhere like St As or Exeter or Durham ask for the same grades as Cambridge anyway.

Anyway, what will be will be! Lockdown has got to me today, so apologies for the MN ranting! The prospect of our 4 DC doing online school as of Monday is something I could do without. But obviously it could be worse.

Slightly off-piste post but a hopefully useful heads up for any DC who are would-be historians. Dan Townend, head of history at Dulwich College, has tweeted some really good resources both for GCSE students who will be starting A level history in September and for those post A level and preparing for their History degrees. Lots of suggested reading and links to brilliant and completely free online courses from universities. Also practical advice on how to actually draw up a daily timetable for studying at home. Hope it might be useful.

Durr sorry he’s Dan Townsend with an ‘s’. Twitter handle @ww1teacher.

I do think there will be a (maybe slight) reduction in overseas students in2020 and possible 2021. I can see parents in USA or non-European countries being wary about their child getting "stuck" in UK for the entire year (or longer) if/when there's a resurgence/new lockdown.

Thanks for the heads up Tooma.

If DS isn't awarded the grades needed for his offer, I don't think he will take the option of sitting the exams in the autumn, even though Cambridge is willing to defer the offer for an October 2021 start.

He is very keen to start undergraduate courses, and I think he would start at his insurance choice in preference to having to wait another year.

Keeping pure maths & mechanics up to the level required for physical natural sciences is difficult when learning is unsupported and no teaching is being provided by the school. DS is up to the challenge of doing this for 6 months, but 18 months would be too much.

It isn’t entirely clear yet but I am assuming that both Firm and Insurance choices are effectively deferred for those who want to sit Autumn exams?

DS has decided that he is OK with sitting exams and deferring for a year if he misses his Cambridge offer (AAA) in August. He wants to keep practising Maths and keep his Economics revision ticking over as both are relevant to his course and in case he misses an A* in either one. He is reasonably confident for his third subject but has got his revision notes and essay plans ready - just in case!
All teaching at his school stopped before Easter.

DS thinks he'll probably go to his insurance choice if he doesn't make his Oxford offer. This seems to be mostly because it involves a year abroad and he rather fancies California. Also, the only appeal for him of a gap year is travel (see the consistent theme here?) and he's not sure how feasible that would be given the ongoing crisis.

I'm getting more nervous about assessed grades. His school is still teaching but he is not particularly engaged or motivated because he is not being taught anything new. He's still handing in work so hopefully this lack of engagement is not evident to his teachers. I think in many ways I would have preferred it if they'd stopped at the end of last term and used all evidence to date.

I thought that no work done after 20th March when the schools closed was to be taken into account for grading? D1 has had nothing set, they had finished the curriculum and her teachers just suggested that they read.

That is my understanding too and it is being strictly enforced by DS’s school.