Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

That’s interesting @hobbema. DS hasn’t had a questionnaire from his college.
Almost four months is a long time to wait for grades but I agree Chicken that it is probably less confusing.
Whittling down the offer holders to match available places is going to be down to arbitrarily decided near misses. I really can’t see anyone accepting a near miss without demanding a review of the process/evidence.

I don't see why the A level results can't be released earlier though. Wouldn't it be better to have more time between the grades and the autumn exams - for appeals, revision work etc. And it would give universities longer to sort out the 2020 intake which I'm sure they'd welcome.

The teachers need as much time as possible to make their assessments though. Don't forget that some will be ill, dealing with poorly family members or juggling caring responsibilities alongside having to work from home. It may not be that easy to access all if the info they need if they are at home. Each outcome needs to be agreed within the college before the Head of Centre can sign off. It's not a 5 minute job. After all that, the exam boards need to apply their statistical models. I would far rather they got the process right for the majority of GCSE & A level candidates, than speed it up to benefit the minority who will sit autumn exams. After all, those dates are still flexible & may get pushed further & further back as the pandemic progresses.

Don't forget that you can only appeal whether the process has been applied correctly, you can't appeal whether or not a teacher liked you when determining a ranking!

I agree that the Aug 13th date is preferable to an earlier one.

Preferable for the process perhaps but not for the waiting DC.

But they always had to wait until 13 August, so it makes sense to retain the date. There are going to be knock on effects for staffing UCAS, clearing, company HR departments, sixth forms etc for a long time yet. All those hoping for an apprenticeship face an even more uncertain future than those heading to unuversity as post A level recruitment is almost certainly bottom of a very long list of priorities for most organisations for the next few months. Sticking to the original timetable simplifies matters. Many employers are encouraging staff to stick to their original annual leave plans for both scheduling and mental health reasons. Suddenly reinventing the wheel because a government minister made a rash statement doesn't justify large scale rescheduling.

I can't see why it's worse for the waiting DC than in any other year.

The actual waiting doesn’t usually start until June......I clearly have a very impatient 17 year old DS .

Yes I get that the waiting period is stretched out but then in my experience the DC do the exams then forget about them from June to the day before results then get them. The thing to do is to help your DC move swiftly into the forgetting phase by eg giving them a huge garden or renovation task with the potential to last for at least three months :)

DD built a new cold frame & then spent several days looking at it, pondering her next steps. I imagine it may take until next month to work out where the tools are to turnover the veg garden, as usually DH does that but he's otherwise engaged.

And DD has constructed a fully wee proof twig fence around some lettuces she planted, to deter our two dogs from their usual ungentlemanly habits. It took her an entire day (related to the care with which she selected twigs, cut them down etc, rather than the size of the area, which is extremely modest).

I am living vicariously through the wholesome loveliness of your various DDs, planting lettuces and collecting twigs.

In my household we are playing nightly games of "Cards Against Humanity" which is anything but wholesome, but is creating some form of family togetherness.

Re dates of exam results, I wonder if the universities will get results earlier than usual. That would make sense to me: it would give them more time to make plans but would retain normality for the students.

DD has had an email from Cambridge advising that if A level results dont meet offer requirements then she can sit the Autumn series and if original offer grades achieved they will honour a place for 2021 entry ( might be different college). Seems decent.

DS received same email today .

That’s a great result for Cambridge offer holders. I wonder if Oxford will do the same.

@ofteninaspin, has it made your DS feel any differently about asking for a deferral? DD really wants to get on with her studies, no appetite for a gap year but will definitely not be looking a gift horse in the mouth. When would you ever get a 2nd chance for Oxbridge (BC!) ?

Oxford's grades are far lower on the whole though Flyonawalk.

They are can be AAA, however without Step, and they don’t over-offer as much as Cambridge. I imagine entry to Cambridge for the current year 12s is going to be much harder than in normal years. Oxford could extend the same allowance to their 2020 offer-holders without disadvantaging next year’s applicants to the same extent.

Only three Oxford subjects ask for two A* (Chemistry, Engineering and Maths) - very limited. I'm glad I don't have a Y12 wanting to try for Cambridge!

Surely this is going to significantly disadvantage the current year 12s though?

The Cambridge course DS was thinking of applying to, only takes about 80 per year and so think they make maybe 110 conditional offers to fill these places.

Do what will happen now is the 80 places will be filled as usual. But then, the extra 30 or so students who, in most cases will have only missed their offer by a grade, are bound to retake and most of them will bump it up, given they have months to revise. So there might only be 50 places left for the following year,

Most colleges only take about 3 or 4 per year for this subject anyway, Many will be full by January with the 2020 cohort who will have their unconditional offers.

I think many of the current Year 12s will probably defer now. If at all possible and this will just store you the same problem for the following year.

I would expect that Oxford will follow suit: it would be a bit strange for Cambridge to make this allowance and Oxford not. And it will be interesting to see what other universities do about this.

I agree that it's going to be harder for the current Year 12s. I feel quite sorry for them as all the focus in on the years below and above, but I think they may end up paying a higher price in some cases. It will be tough on them to apply to the top universities knowing that a portion of places have already been taken.

I suppose the problem is that it's impossible in the current situation to be fair to everyone. I'd definitely rather be a Y13 than a Y12 at the moment.

I tend to think that Oxford won't follow suit but will do things on a more individual basis, given that they offer fewer places. DD's college has written asking all students to get their school to enter any special circumstances which apply to their sixth form studies and the strong implication is that each case will be looked at on its individual merits.

@swthree , who knows? Its quite possible that a significant number of current overseas offer holders dont take up their places. Current y12 might also find they have less competition from overseas applicants in this winter’s application round than our DC did. We’d all like it to be different/ normal . I hope your DS doesnt feel too despondent .