Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

ofteninaspin Ofqual's consultation on the moderation (standardisation) process says that they will not take account of an individual pupil's prior attainment (including GCSEs), but will take account of the overall performance of the year group.

I'm reading that as that if a school/college predict higher/lower grades than expected, the model will build in some analysis of whether this year's cohort are particularly high or low achieving. But if your individual child is an outlier in the year group, the fact that they aced/bombed their GCSEs won't be taken into account.

Good news for those who have found their stride in the sixth form. Not so great for those who have already proved themselves with a string of 8s and 9s and need those A*s. But hopefully it will come out in the wash.

Thank you @AChickenCalledDaal, that’s really helpful. So GCSEs (and other evidence) are relevant to the appraisal of an individual’s grades by schools but aren’t relevant to the “standardisation” process which considers grades by cohort rather than individually.

What I'm not clear on is how they establish the cohort and whether it's statistically meaningful. To illustrate what I mean:

Sixth form college - presume we have to define the cohort as the students specifically sitting A-levels, and aggregate solely their GCSE results at their previous schools (filtering out feeder school results of those students who did not go on to the sixth form college). That raises the question of a school where most of the sixth formers attended in Year 11. Is the cohort similarly filtered for the GCSE results of only those who stayed on for sixth form, and will they aggregate in results of those who joined in Year 12?

A-level subject being taken by a small number of students in a school: are they judged against the GCSE results of their whole cohort across all subjects (or that particular subject assuming it was available at GCSE), even if those students are not typical of their cohort?

I think the point is that the standardisation process is about getting the “usual” distribution of grades across the whole cohort for any particular subject. GCSE results aren’t relevant at this stage.

Very valid questions DadDadDad. At DD's school, about a third of the year group head elsewhere at age 16, mostly because they want to do vocational qualifications, which aren't available in their sixth form. So the sixth form is on average much more academically-minded than the cohort as a whole. And with only two students doing Further Maths, it's reasonable to assume that they are less typical than most.

I wish I felt confident that this would all be cleverly built into the model, but I don't think they will have had time to do so.

Students have UCI numbers that record their educational data so each cohort at each setting will be based on the UCI data of the pupils making up the actual cohort to ascertain their prior attainment as a cohort so leavers taken out and any new joiners added in - Chicken and Dad.

Thanks Season Finale I didn't know that and it is definitely somewhat reassuring.

GCSE results aren’t relevant at this stage.

@ofteninaspin - I'm sure that's not true - I thought guidance is that the cohort's prior attainment (so for Y13, their GCSE grades) will be part of the method used to determine an expected distribution for their 2020 grades. Season has nicely clarified that the cohort is well-defined in the sense that for each exam centre, they will specifically build the baseline GCSE distribution by looking at the grades of the current set of students in that exam centre, wherever they were in Y11.

Thank you @DadDadDad for the correction and apologies for the misinformation.

@ofteninaspin - thanks for acknowledging that so graciously - it's a refreshing approach on MN!

Best wishes to everyone invested in this thread as we start another working week in lockdown. It's 14 weeks until results week...

DadDadDad, I thought it was just me counting down the weeks! Yes, 14 weeks on Thursday. The wait feels interminable, considering the government tore up exams on 18 March and started a five month wait with no ability for students to influence outcome. Very harsh for them and for us.

I haven't been counting the weeks, it was just something that I worked out when I was writing that post. We've had 6 weeks of lockdown so 14 does feel a lot...

Ah. It is just me counting down the weeks. This probably isn’t the time to observe that it’s 101 days til August 13th. It sounds too tragic that I would know this.

DD would have sat her first A level today. Anyone else? How are they feeling?
DD is now relieved that an early decision was made and she hasn't had to climb the mountain of revising four subjects without being in school. Her STEP prep is continuing and the more she tells me about what she's doing, the less I understand.

Yes, it would have been DS's first exam yesterday, FM same as your DD Chicken. We tried to make a bit of a joke of it but I felt sad. DS however was delighted to bump into his FM teacher at ths Supermarket while doing some shopping for me.
In other news (not much is there!) DS had an email from Oxford asking for details of his student finance.

Yes, DS would also have sat his first FM yesterday. It's all very strange, but DS seems fine with it all. He is still doing some maths most days and has also decided to learn classical Greek, via a GCSE text book! I hope your DD's STEP prep keeps going well chicken.

Popping in - hope that everyone is safe and well. We have had, and continue to have, a tough time and have lost several residents at the care home where both DS and I are working, but our family all have remained well. And we have a piece of news to share here.

DS finally decided for sure that Warwick is the place for him and so has effectively declined the Cambridge offer by not registering to sit the online STEP exams. He spoke to the Cambridge college and they have wished him well. After so many months of feeling unsure he is now very happy and relaxed and busy making accommodation plans and choosing teams and societies to join in the hope that he gets the grades he needs and that Warwick are able to open their doors to new students in September/October. Still so many variables!

He too continues to do maths for fun around working and has lined up some online work experience for June/July too. And he's still cutting the lawn in funny shapes - it's a square spiral at the moment.

I will continue to watch this thread and wish nothing but the best for your young Oxbridge people. I hope all their dreams come true and please keep your fingers crossed for us that DS is given the grades he needs too.

Hi, @GinWorksForMe. Safe and well in the D^3 household; I hope everyone else is doing likewise.

Thanks for the update. That must have been a tough decision for your DS. 30 years ago Warwick was my insurance offer for maths, and I know it's a very strong place for the subject. I wish him well.

DS is maintaining sanity for the moment. I feel he should comfortably get the 3 As he needs for his Oxford offer, but the whole uncertainty around this novel process for grades will keep me anxious for the next 91 days (thanks, @Flyonawalk , for the count...).

Glad to hear your DS has settled on a place GinWorksforMe. Much better now than after starting at Cambridge. He sounds extremely mature. Yes, fingers firmly crossed.

Coleoptera DD4 had a cheerful email from her interviewing tutor this morning with a reasonably sized reading list and a look forward to seeing you again in Oct message too.

Sorry to hear you're still unwell Coleoptera and good to hear that Gin's DS has made a positive choice and feeling good about it.

So sorry you're still unwell, @Coleoptera.
D1 is now quite glad she's not sitting exams - she's had an allergic reaction to something and is on anti histamines and antibiotics - and feeling a bit sorry for herself!

Well done to @GinWorksForMe 'S DS for making a decision. Sorry to hear that you're still unwell @Coleoptera.

All OK here. DS1 has finished some online assessments set by his school (open book, just an hour for each subject). He's now started on a series of 'electives' - including advanced organic chemistry, glaciation and the fall of the Roman Empire! Oh and taking part in online meetings of the LD party.

He has applied for a couple of jobs as well. Not sure I'd want him serving me skinny lattes though.