Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

Oh and the bonus points of having Oxford as firm and Durham as insurance has taken away any stress about booking accommodation.

Thanks for checking in, @sandybayley. I could echo a lot of what you said.

I feel fairly confident that the assessed grades the school will come up with are going to be enough for his Oxford offer, but I'm still slightly nervous about whether the exam board's statistical model might pull any of those down, especially in one subject where the school have had about 3 students taking it each year, so there must be a wide confidence interval on any estimate of the expected grades.

DS has no work to do at all. Has completed everything on Isaac Physics. Has done a few useful "Mr Fix-It" jobs round the house and a bit of cooking and cycling, but is basically at a loose end. Meanwhile we are living through every essay crisis of DD1's (home from Oxford). I'm hoping to goodness that the universities will start back in September...

STEP announcement has been made: www.admissionstesting.org/campaigns/coronavirus/

and FAQs here: support.admissionstesting.org/hc/en-gb/articles/360041390652

Please let me know if there is anything I can help with. I am happy for people to DM me!

Hello everyone,

I remain a little nervous about the assessed grades, but DS’s school tutor just told him that his main objective this term is to get prepared for Oxford by doing extension questions and looking at the syllabus. So that was promising. My brilliant parental advice has been to forget about subject preparation; he really needs to get up to speed with what will matter most in college … he’s therefore been honing his table football skills.

Other than that he has decided to wants to get into triathlon which has involved lots of cycle rides and he’s just asked for a wetsuit so he can do some long swims (we are near the sea, but far from the tropical South).

I should add that I might not respond immediately as I am currently home-schooling as well as working...but I will respond!

That sounds like a sensible decision to do STEP online. I wonder how foolproof it is? Probably the least risky subject to attempt this, because there will only be a few candidates who would have anyone around who is able to help, even if they could somehow put them in a trapdoor under a table and drop the question paper to them!

Hopefully this won't eliminate any candidates without access to the right kit; that would be v sad.

Also, I wonder what will happen to candidates who have Virgin Media? Wouldn't be good for broadband to go down several times during the exam!

I can tell you that the sea here in the tropical south is still not in any way warm enough for swimming SnapSnapDragon - it looked inviting last week, until we tested it with feet! It was freezing!

Thanks @Pallando - DD1 picked up the announcement earlier, which I'm taking as encouraging evidence that she really is paying attention to her STEP preparation!

The protoring system for STEP looks quite good (mercer mettl), and it seems to be a company that has been doing this sort of thing for ages! If anyone has any problems with equipment etc then I would suggest getting in touch with the colleges to see if they can help.

Forgive me for de-railing, just very conscious that some pupils might have no access to online teaching. May I flag up some suggestions from University College in Oxford? They post on Twitter as @Staircase12 and although a lot of their recommendations are aimed at prospective applicants in the lower sixth, some bored offer holders might find them useful too. They offer resources and suggest reading for all subjects. Also available via univ.ox.ac.uk and clicking on ‘how to apply’. Sorry I can’t post a link. If memory serves Kings College Cambridge also have some good resources that anyone can access.

Just wanted a bit of advice for my ds

He was rejected by trinity cambridge for maths but has an offer at warwick. He achieved 4a stars in his mocks and will be sitting Step.

He doesn’t qualify for adjustment

Do you think Cambridge might consider him if he does really well in his step. It seems to be an odd year many internationals may drop out

All fine here too. DS has a plan for every possible outcome in August and is otherwise keeping up with Maths practice and working out should tennis restart anytime soon. He has a revision timetable in place in case he needs to boost grades post August (needs AAA for Cam, A*AA for insurance).
DD1 (Oxford, Year 2) and friend (overseas student staying with us for lockdown) have started Trinity term online. An online room ballot for third year provided a diversion yesterday. It was quite interesting to view all the rooms in College online!

Thanks for that, @Tooma - I've passed it on to D1. Had a quick skim through the booklists and we already have quite a few of the titles, so plenty to keep her going!

D1 is OK - they had finished the curriculum and aren't being set any work at all. The Spanish teachers are sending through a link once a week just to keep their hand in. The English dept sent them all home with little handtied parcels of books (old set books - Persuasion, Huck Finn etc).

I think without the daily timetable of school and the expected revision and gearing up towards exams, it all feels a bit unreal for D1. Oxford seems far away and she is doubting herself and her ability to cope with the work. I think she should be fine for her predicted grades, the only worry would be the ranking in Spanish where there are several native speakers in her class. But nothing we can do about that, and she says she will not sit any exams in the autumn, if she doesn't get her grades for Oxford she will take up her insurance place.

dumbo1 I'm not an expert but as far as I know Adjustment is the only option for being reconsidered at this point. Or I suppose withdrawing and applying again next year with grades in hand. But I'm not sure he could do that after STEP grades are released, if he's meet his offer for Warwick.

Also I see that STEP grade boundaries are being set so that the places available are filled, so I don't think there will actually be big gaps where international students should be, for maths at least.

Thank you for the information. He is going to go ahead with step and probably go to Warwick

Hi all, good to hear ths updates. Dad I'm slightly worried about external moderation of A levels as ds is an outlier at his school. I have no doubt he would have achieved his grades had he taken the exams but his school average is below average. He scored 3xA star and an A in his 1st mocks and 4xA* in his second so I have everything firmly crossed. Hs is quite chilled since, as he says, none of us can do anything .

Hi everyone. Checking in on a rare day off. It's nice to hear news of you all!

Bit jealous of those whose DC are being given guidance/work/encouragement from school. My DS's school have completely washed their hands of the Year 13s.

DS is unsure of what to do about STEP. He has been working as a carer so has been keeping busy but not doing any maths as far as I know. I suspect he will do no preparation, and either not take the exams or take them and secretly hope that he doesn't do well enough for Cambridge! He talks very enthusiastically about Warwick and never mentions Cambridge but it's hard to drill down to how he actually feels - I suppose that could just be self-preservation or it could be a genuine preference for Warwick.

Our internet connection is rubbish so that might affect him if he sits the online exams. But I think he and we all feel that things have a habit of working out the way they are supposed to.

In working with me at the care home over the last couple of weeks he has been brave, and so caring and kind, and he has had his eyes opened to so much of what really matters. I think these times will stand him in good stead for life no matter whether he is allocated the right grades or makes it to Cambridge or Warwick.

Stay safe everyone. @Coleoptera hope you are feeling much better.

I was trying not to worry about the standardisation process, but DD mentioned in passing that her school has never had anyone achieve an A* in Further Maths . Based on everything that's been said at every parents evening, I'm as certain as I can be that they will predict one for her. But will Ofqual's computer believe them?!

Gin the more you say about your son the more he sounds like a thoroughly decent lad who will do really well in life whatever. Does he need STEP for both offers, though?

@Achickencalleddaal no DS doesn't need STEP for Warwick. They had asked for STEP 1 in return for a dropped grade I believe, but STEP 1 is cancelled so he is now totally dependent on A stars in maths and further maths and As in the other two.

We are in a similar situation with the Further Maths. You know I think we all just have to believe that our DC will end up where they were meant to.

He IS a thoroughly decent lad, as I'm sure all our DC are. He's sometimes quite hard to share a house with though!!

GinWorksForMe
Nothing from DS's school either, unless you count the music emailed for the orchestra to give them something to practice at home.

DS is finishing off his A-level courses independently and then plans to find some past papers online and mark them himself.

*practise

DS finished Maths and Economics courses before Easter and has just finished Politics (on his own). His is the first cohort to take Politics A Level at his school so I don’t know what the moderators will do. He has a strong GCSE profile but it doesn’t include Politics (is there a Politics GCSE?). I am not clear whether GCSEs will be considered anyway when moderating A Level grades. Anyone know?