Medicine 2021

[Millylovespuddles]

Hi all
It looks like there’s no medicine 2021 entry thread yet, so it might be an idea to get the ball rolling.
My DD is getting stuck into her A level course, doing well so far, but I’m guessing we parents could do with some mutual support and advice from parents who’ve been here before.

Whatever the spec of new v old GCSEs, it is still roughly the same percentage achieving a 7/8/9 as used to receive an A*/A. Whether this is due to grade boundary manipulation or other shenanigans, I have no idea, it is not may area of expertise.
However,
In 2019
4.5% of all GCSEs were a 9
6.7% were an 8

In 2017 (the last year of all letter grades- and that is not a typo)
7.1% got an Astar

So, 9+8 grades were 11.2% versus Astar grade of 7.1%.

Effectively, there were over 1.5x as many people with 8s and 9s as there were A*s. Hence why places like Cardiff, Birmingham and Leicester seem to have seen jumps in the scores needed for an interview and probably why Cardiff was having to reject people with 9 Astars/9s/8s.

So in terms of the selection processes for those that use GCSE, an effective dumbing down.

So I’ve just come on here to share my sons experience applying to medical schools for 2020 entry in the hope it helps others. He thought it was over when he had a total brain fart during his UCAT despite being very well prepared and expecting to do well. It took a long tome to pick him up and encourage him onwards to rethink and apply strategically but that’s what he eventually did.
DS bombed with 2535 B2 in his UCAT - far from what he was expecting. Not a disaster but certainly ruling out his chosen med schools of Newcastle and Sheffield which are both UCAT heavy. We spent many weeks compiling a spreadsheet of all medical schools, their entry requirements for 2020 (he doesn’t do biology A level so that’s another limiting factor for choices), and their precious interview threshold scores. Visiting every medical school website and getting the most up to date information and don’t be fooled Into just going on what medical portal says as it does change year on year! He eventually decided to apply to: Leicester (he has good GCSE grades and so we could work out even with his mediocre UCAT he would have secured an interview in previous years). Keele (again strategically not a UCAT heavy med schoo). Leeds - he sat the BMAT in October to allow him to do this and did well with 4.8, 4.9 and 3A (as Leeds alps GCSE heavy we assumed as long as he did ok in BMAT he stood a chance of getting interview). Manchester - this was his very big risk as his UCAT well below their threshold but they clearly state they view some applicants holistically and see what else they have to offer of their UCAT is lower then their threshold. DS loved Manchester at the open day and decided he would gamble with this. To be quite clear his only intention at this point was to secure interviews wherever he could. Application submitted. He completed additional application Forms for Keele and Manchester about his work experience, his other hobbies and interests and this was also assessed by those two med schools. To be fair DS does a lot of sport, FA football referee, completed all DofE levels, NCS etc... so had a lot to talk about. He also had a lot of work experience and volunteering. He secured interviews at all 4 med schools (ecstatic about Manchester in particular that was his biggest gamble). He did then attend an MMI interview course (which he completely recommends as it gave him a ton of confidence) and went for his 4 interviews. He prepped massively for these - each course and each city. He’s quite outgoing and actually enjoyed the MMI process () - not everyone’s cup of tea but absolutely something you can become much more comfortable doing the more you do it!! Practice practice practice! So here he now is - cycle finished - exhausted with it alongside Alevel studies - drained by the process - but elated to have received offers from all 4 med schools. He is torn where to chose and never expected to be in the position of having a choice. I think Manchester will always win in his head but he was very impressed by Leeds when he interviewed. My reason to post is to encourage everyone - even without amazing stats - be strategic - very very strategic. Do your homework. Do not dismiss any options without giving them serious consideration. And don’t give up - you have to be resilient in this process and may have to reapply - he’s been very fortunate but if he hadn’t then he would have taken that gap year, got a job as HCA and gone again this year. That itself shows how much you want it and can’t be ignored by med schools if you reapply! Good luck to all your kids. And good luck to you mums! I’m borderline alcoholic as a result of this process

@gizmo22345 thank you so much for sharing your DS’ journey and congratulations on the offers!
It’s great to hear how he turned things around.

May I ask, when did he sit UCAT? When he realised he would be best to also sit BMAT, how long did he have to prepare? Or had he always done some prep for this? Just wondering so we can figure out timings for the summer for DD and it’s good to hear what others did.

Congrats again - 4 offers - WOW!!!

Gismo,

That is lovely to hear. I have experience of picking DD up from her poor UKCAT score, which seemed so doubly unfair given how well she had done academically despite the challenge of dyslexia, but also with handholding a good friend last year whose son had a similar brain fart. I honestly can't see that the correlation can be that good when performance on the day can vary so much. (Especially given that test conditions in different centres seem to vary so much. Someone has clearly done a great sales job.)

Hence my real plea for others not to use these threads as the place for stealth boasts. Yes it's brilliant if your child picks up loads of early interviews and offers, but there will be others, possibly lurkers who are struggling

Your post also demonstrates that it is worth including a "stretch" choice, as long as it is not completely hopeless. Bristol was DDs. 17 applicants per place and not a single offer for anyone from her school for a decade. And perhaps a "fall back". (QUB or SGUL would have been hers except she decided to line up a gap year as a Plan B.)

DD was not interviewed anywhere until March (medical schools tend to interview SEN applicants last which does not help) so was completely drained by the time she got a couple of offers, and asked for a deferral anyway. It was an awful process and affected her ability to focus on mocks and A levels.

Good luck to your son. Both Manchester and Leeds sound great choices. We know a couple of medics who have settled in well to Manchester. And have heard great things about being a student in Leeds. I think he should relax and go with his heart.

Hi,
He sat the UCAT in mid August and started hard prep for it at the beginning of July once school had finished. He felt entirely prepared for it and the brain fart floored him completely. He had time though to rethink his plans as obviously you get the result immediately. He only decided to sit the BMAT when he realised how limited his choices really were without biology A level and sat it at the end of October once his UCAS application had been submitted so he didn’t have the advantage of knowing his score beforehand. If I had any advice it would be to break it all down into stages. First stage to secure interviews then worry about offers only after that. Good luck to you all and I genuinely didn’t post to ‘brag’ it was simply to encourage.

I honestly can't see that the correlation can be that good

It is modest, but it is the best there is at the minute.

Some papers that informed current thinking, if anybody is interested
bmcmededuc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1472-6920-14-116
bmjopen.bmj.com/content/6/10/e011313.full
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-016-0682-7
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3109/0142159X.2015.1009023
bmcmededuc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1472-6920-14-88
docplayer.net/104568751-The-relationship-between-ukcat-scores-and-finals-exam-performance-for-widening-access-and-traditional-entry-students.html

Apologies if any of those need log ins, am happy to send summaries if anyone needs them

Not bragging at all. It is really useful for applicant's mums to know that this process can be straightforward, but that it, equally, can be awful. Criteria for interview can be very tight, and so little tolerance for brain farts.

And well done you. You must feel so relieved. I found it seriously difficult. I had supported DD through school, including aged 10 when her pompous prep school head claimed, as a result of her awful CAT score (timed test again) that she was not capable of a London selective secondary and that her only future was "country boarding". Through to her getting A level predictions of 4xA*, A. We assumed by then that she was home and dry, yet because of bloody UKCAT it looked as if she would again not be good enough.

We know how hard our DC have worked. We know they have earned their grades. We know that they have breadth and resilience and compassion, yet so much falls to performance on the day.

The one piece of good news, is that so many med schools have gone over to UKCAT, that they can't all pick the top scorers. My friend's DS put Southampton as his stretch (others were SGUL, Liverpool and Plymouth), despite it being traditionally UKCAT heavy, he was called for interview in about June. They must know there are good applicants out there that they are missing, and it looks as if as long as you have other things to offer (tip top academics, a strong PS) you can still be in with a chance.

I certainly still think DD deserved a medical school place, even if UKCAT, the system, or MN experts, did not agree. I also think a good grounding of work experience, volunteering and lots of extra curricular helped her retain her confidence. Medicine was where she wanted to be and if it took a second year or applications to Ireland, Malaysia (clinical in Nottingham), or Buckingham, this is where she wanted to be headed. Once they start there is no evidence that those that shone at UKCAT are stronger than others. Indeed first year, it seems that a good maths A level gave the most advantage. There was a surprising amount of statistics, and DD found herself in the unexpected position of supporting weaker peers.

Not getting a top score in the UCAT does not mean somebody is not good enough.
Very many of the people who apply to medicine would make excellent Drs (certainly more than the 40% who get an offer) and struggling in one form of test is not a comment on somebody's worth or value.

Sadly, med schools have to find a way to select applicants. Medics and academics are trained to look for the evidence for any given intervention and the evidence there is currently shows that UCAT correlates best with performance at med school. There may be something MUCH better, we just don't know what it is yet! But as I have said before, this is across a population, it cannot be directly applied to an individual. There will be many amazing Drs who did very badly in UCAT and many very bad Drs who did amazingly at UCAT, so don't ever let anybody make you feel like it is a comment on a child's value, worth or suitability for medicine, as that is not the case.

GDPR, FOIs, SARs mean that people can ask for the EVIDENCE about why they were rejected, for scoring systems, for others' scores and then compare their own and, if disgruntled, complain or sue. From a med school's POV, being able to say "this test has some correlation with performance at med school, here are everybody's scores and yours was below the cut off" is an easily defensible position.
But different med schools do still select using different criteria, and long may it continue. There are also lots of med schools using UCAT where a lower than expected score (below average) will still put you in the running for an interview. This is shown by Gizmo's post above (although her DS's score was very respectable at 60th centile) - that children might have an idea about where they want to apply, but they are best waiting for all stats and then applying to their strengths as this is the way they are most likely to get offers (not guaranteed for anyone, but at interview the scoring usually starts again). I agree the process is more straightforward for those with excellent stats across the board, as they have more places to chose from, but even for others, if they can make AAA, there is usually a med school who will consider them (and I say this as a parent having had children who, on paper, tick all the boxes and those who don't).

And UCAT heavy just means they use solely UCAT to select, it does not (to me, anyway) mean they need a high score. I would say ARU are UCAT heavy , with a cut off of 610 last year, also SGUL (around 620 this year). Plymouth (cut off just under 600) and Southampton's cut off was 627.5 last year, so within the reach of many. UCAT score can make an application but it would have to be unusually low (bottom 20%) to break it.

GANFYD,

I accept this. However I guess DD was also looking for an established medical school with well recognised teaching hospitals. It is still conceivable that she may want to go into more academic medicine or research and from what she saw, and she went to the SGUL Open Day, they do not promote themselves as the obvious starting point. Indeed from memory they don't even allow intercalations. My impression, and I read a lot of medical school websites was that Peninsular did not either. ARU was too new.

So essentially UKCAT, rather than actual A level performance, is being used as a filter for those who might want to keep doors open for research orientated careers. Presumably in the name of equality. DD is lucky. Assuming she is successful in her applications she will get a year at a top London research University, and if she wanted to continue we would find the money to take a Masters, so she can have the best of both worlds.

But I suspect Goodbye Stranger has a point. Academic DC really ought to consider the more academic courses, especially if a poor UKCAT denies them what they may really want, which is a good mix of academic and vocational.

The question remains. What is UKCAT really selecting? Or is it a form of lottery, that effectively lets Med Schools off the hook and out of the reach of discrimination suits. And who cares is some very strong applicants are thrown to the wind. I still think the test, as an effective filter for applicants, has been oversold.

And as for not getting a top score, does not mean an applicant is not good enough. You have clearly not read medicmum threads of the past few years. The message has consistently been that if your DC is not able to ace everything and get four offers, they are poor shakes indeed. It is odd to be a parent whose child has a learning disability. It is such a struggle for them. But equally, as Gismo usefully reminds us, problems can arise from as little as a bad day in the office.

SGUL allow intercalation. As do Liverpool, Manchester, QUB, Cardiff, Leicester, Exeter, Plymouth (Peninsula is now split into separate med schools). Most of them would let a student intercalate at other med schools, I believe. Places on a AFP or ACF programme are blinded to the med school, so going to any med school in the country does not affect chances of a place. (I have just selected med schools here that do not require a high UCAT, though do not know what your daughter scored).

I am not sure what leads you to say essentially UKCAT, rather than actual A level performance, is being used as a filter for those who might want to keep doors open for research orientated careers? You can get a place on an academic programme from any med school and most allow intercalation and other opportunities to increase points for application. Your DD could have had a place at a top research uni from almost anywhere.

Also, I do not know why you say Academic DC really ought to consider the more academic courses. Surely, they ought to look at where they stand a good chance of an interview and choose the one they like best out of those? Some want early patient contact, PBL, etc, some don't and they should not be pushed into choosing something because they are labelled "academic" or not. A poor UCAT does not deny applicants having both academic and vocational parts to their course, although it may limit choices.

I think it is unfair to call the UCAT a lottery, as there is extensive research into outcomes and refinement of the test to try and produce the outcomes they desire - an applicant who will perform well at med school and beyond. But they, unfortunately, do not have the resources to do the type of assessment needed to make sure all aspects of an application are fully assessed (I go back to my 3 month "structured assessed work placement.....), so they go with the best of what is available. Which at the minute is the UCAT.

I have not read all past threads on MN, but I think I have shown that I am not influenced by people shouting loudest or insisting they know best, with no evidence to back that up and I persist in my belief that the UCAT is just one part of the system and we need to encourage and support our children to do whatever they are able to do to increase their chances of a place and then help them research the places that suit the strengths they have. I tell a lot of people that sometimes they need to decide if medicine or the university is more important, as there is nothing different in terms of opportunities in the NHS for graduates of Oxbridge, UCL, Imperial, Plymouth, ARU or Aston (or any other med school).

I am also a parent of a child with learning difficulties, so have shared many of your frustrations, but our extra special DCs do not mean the system is wrong, just that, sadly, it caters better for the many than the few (as is true for so many areas of life!)

@mumsneedwine it is tough for the scots - all their med schools are UKCAT heavy, so if they want to take advantage of the free fees they are stuck if they are not good at UCAT.

GANFYD it's time to let go of my insignificant typo unless you want to risk looking desperate. I always think of school cohorts as the year in which they join a particular year group. Thus the guinea pig year for the almost full range of 9 - 1 GCSEs was the 2017 cohort. An easy typo therefore and didn't alter the substance.

The 2016 cohort which took GCSEs in 2017 took three 9 - 1 GCSEs (English, English and Maths).

The government very specifically engineered results so that the same number of students scored 7 - 9 as scored A/ A*.

These things are all minor. Your point about dumbing down is based on very loose logic.

In fact the changes do matter, in a substantial sense. Those with a long string of 9s are in the top tiny percentage of their national cohort. This is vastly much smaller as a figure than the number of 9s scored overall. Given the very significant changes to the specs in terms of challenge, those in that top tiny percentage can afford to be choosy. In particular, the chances are much stronger than ever before that those scoring 9s across the sciences and Maths will do very well on the BMAT. If they like the look of the BMAT unis that puts them quids in even if they bomb the UCAT - that is, if they bother to take it at all.

This robotic analysis of statistics for qualifying UCAT scores may well be useful for those with weaker GCSEs. Comments from swingofthings about the difference between a place at med school or no place at all are highly relevant to that section of the applicant population. But eg LaLaFlottes DD is in a different boat entirely. She has a wide range of options open and the narrowness of your advice does a real ill service to more able DC. There's a bigger picture to be considered for those DC - it's concerning that you don't seem to get that.

An applicant with all 9s at GCSEs is still not going to get into some med schools if they do not meet the UCAT cut off. They do not "relax the cut off" because somebody has good academics, they just apply their algorithm.

So all 9 GCSEs and A* predictions make no odds at Bristol, Newcastle, Sheffield, Glasgow, Edinburgh and other med schools needing high scores, if the UCAT does not make the cut off. Hence why it is important to know what it is. So all 9s at GCSE does not, automatically, let you choose those!

Is there evidence that those getting 9s do better in BMAT than those getting 8s? Could you link it, please?

And there is only QUB who have currently stated they intend to differentiate between an 8 and a 9 so having a string of these will make no odds. It will score no higher than those with the same number of 8s and 9s. And the stats show there are more of those about than there were Astars.

As I say, those with good GCSEs just do not have any doors shut yet, but it is nothing more than the first step along a pathway with lots of other hurdles.

But others can see for themselves the fallacies in the comments you are making, so I shall leave you to it

I always think of school cohorts as the year in which they join a particular year group. Thus the guinea pig year for the almost full range of 9 - 1 GCSEs was the 2017 cohort. An easy typo therefore and didn't alter the substance.The 2016 cohort which took GCSEs in 2017 took three 9 - 1 GCSEs (English, English and Maths).

And you may want to check this for "typos", before somebody points out the factual errors in it. Or are the DCs at your school so far ahead of the curve they only study GCSEs for 1 year?

The government very specifically engineered results so that the same number of students scored 7 - 9 as scored A/A *

You are so opinionated that you just don't read what other people are saying. The issue is not about 7-9 compared to A/A, it was about how 8/9 compares with A.

From the AQA GCSE grade statistics
Biology - 2017 13.1% A*, 2018 12.1% 9, 25.2% 8/9
Chemistry - 2017 17% A*, 2018 12.8% 9, 27.2% 8/9
Physics - 2017 16.1% A*, 2018 12.4% 9, 26.4% 8/9

So although there were fewer 9s than As, the number of 8/9 was 60-92% higher for sciences at AQA than the number of As, so A* was much more like 9 than 8/9.

This means that the universities scoring GCSEs have seen significant rises in the scores this year as there are so many people with 8/9 grades.

Monkey 2001 in answer to your comment:

Whatever the spec of new v old GCSEs, it is still roughly the same percentage achieving a 7/8/9 as used to receive an A/A. Whether this is due to grade boundary manipulation or other shenanigans, I have no idea, it is not may area of expertise* (GANFYD)

The government very specifically engineered results so that the same number of students scored 7 - 9 as scored A/ A.* (Me)

The comment was therefore uncalled for.

Annoying bold fail, A* related, but if you look back you'll see that I simply answered GANFYD directly.

GANFYD barrel scraping never a great plan. I said, but again, I happen to think of cohorts in terms of the year in which they start the academic year of their public exams. I think in academic years - not a huge surprise. In fact our school has a three year programme for GCSEs now, not two, along with many other schools so this cohort would have been the 2015 cohort which is pretty random. No, that's the way I do it. Just felt your repetition meant it might help stem the flow to say why the typo is even more easily explained than clumsy fingers on tiny phone, my usual foe. Hope that's ok with you now.

Monkey using the profile of 8/9s in the single sciences is a mistake in terms of measuring the overall numbers awarded. Sciences surprised everyone for the guinea pig cohort on the day they came out (including our Head of Science, who was delighted!). They were in a category of their own. But unis are looking at numbers of top grades across the board, not just sciences. The fact remains that taking into account all the other subjects that students do, mean that very, very few - a tiny percentage - will get a straight row, or nearly a straight row of 9s.

Clearly the point about 8/9s is perfectly valid. I made it to GANFYD pages back when she was scratching her head over the Oxford statistics. Obviously, if you want to verify that, you only need to look back.

GANFYD I have much better things to do today than carry on responding to infantile comments but honestly, you'd really struggle to find fallacies in anything I say.

You could ask Oxford to analyse the data from this year's admissions round I suppose, if you thought they'd feel you important enough to spend time doing that. I expect you do :)

Those with all (or nearly all) 9s might well opt not to take UCAT, since they have other very good options not open to those with weaker GCSEs. There's no requirement to take the UCAT at all. It gives additional options, that's all, but it's not essential as it is for those with weaker GCSEs.

My point about differentiation if you read what I wrote was that a) rthose with a very high number of 9s might well be sharper and more agile in interview, since that's in great part what the 9s are testing. And b) they might well tip the balance in post interview discussions. I didn't quarrel in the slightest with decisions to invite for interview, my points were about the interview itself and post interview discussions among tutors.

Ok. Things are gettting less and less coherent in some posts.

I don't like to leave misleading statements uncorrected, so will point out the following and then leave you all to it.

For those concerned, even people with "weaker" GCSES can avoid the UCAT should they so wish as only 2 of the med schools that use BMAT score GCSEs in their selection process.

Most med schools publish how they select in post interview tie-break situations and most often they seem use UCAT or PS/reference.

If anybody has anything they think I can help with, give me a shout

Good luck - seems like you may need it to survive the thread, let alone with applications!

My daughter is currently studying medicine at Sheffield. She came from a bog standard comprehensive school. I’m willing to answer questions if that would help anyone?

As with @ness1234 my DS is second year at Sheffield- he only did UKCAT and had ok GCSEs from a state school. I am also a sixth form teacher with lots of experience of med school applications- happy to answer any questions you may have

GANFYD has a great deal of sensible advice to share. This is a process for DC and whether it’s fair, whether it suits your own DC, whether it’s even a good predictor of good doctors or not... we will all have a different view. But it’s a process you have no choice but to navigate and do so strategically using your own DC’s strengths (whatever they are) - I genuinely believe there is a medical school to suit everyone. We can only support our DC to rise to the challenges they face now and for the foreseeable. You can’t change the process - argue all you like about that - but there is sufficient flex across the medical schools assessment and admissions processes to find those that suit your own DC best. Put any preconceived ideas aside and be open minded. It’s about becoming a doctor - keep your eyes on the prize!