How do predicted grades work, what can he apply for?

[mooseloose]

Ds has done as levels and got bcccc in Maths physics geog biology and computing. I thought his predicted grades may all go up one, so Abb with the three he is keeping up. But today school have predicted bcc, so no change. He is retaking a few modules, soi hope he will get BBB.
But the courses he is looking at are abb, BBB ish. So my question is, if he applied to these with bcc will they reject, or offer on abb for example? I was banking on him choosing his two choices as say abb/BBB and then a bbc for insurance. I have told him to speak to school with a plan of what he an get with retakes etc. can anyone please offer me any advice or comfort. He needs to knuckle down this year! His gcse were mainly A grades.

It's entirly up to the individual uni. Some just reject on predictions, some make an offer. Some make an offer and even if you don't quite make it offer a place.

If they interview and they like you they can make ann individual offer.

Back in the 'old days' a friend's brother got an offer from Oxford of EE. They really wanted him.

Sorry not much help.

Has your DS considered a year out, and then applying with actual grades achieved rather than predictions?

Unis will look at actual AS grades achieved as these are an indicator of hard the student has worked/what they can achieve. Most predicte grades err on the generous side and unis know this. How close to the next grade up was your DS? Our 'rule' for predictions is if they were more than half way to next grade we predict them up a grade as a rough starting point - obvs we look at all students then individually and think about how hard they have worked throughout the year to get to that point.

There's a website called Which? University which is very helpful - you put in your predicted grades, expressed as points, and subject, and it gives you a list of Unis you can apply to.

I think your son's school is being a bit harsh, tbh; ds's AS grades were on the disappointing side, but he's been predicted one grade up on all of them. As he's resitting one paper which he messed up spectacularly (got an E, but a very high B on the other one), he's hoping to beat the prediction.

I think it would be worth your DS talking to the school.

I am an admissions tutor, and in my area our standard offers are ABB-BBB (depending which degree).

Assuming there is nothing else in the application that looks out of line, and the potential student looks like they will succeed, I usually make offers on applications with predicted grades in the range of AAA-BBC. If the application is really strong then we would make an offer on BCC.

In general in my experience, grammar schools and indies tend to give high predictions in relation to AS grades, comps usually predict the same as the AS grades (and are often more accurate ).

My advice would be for him to have a couple of aspirational choices on your UCAS form (ABB, BBB), a couple more in line with the AS grades (BBC, BCC) and a real reserve (CCC). Your DS will be in a much better position to know how things are going in Spring when he has to decide his firm/insurance.

If things are looking promising and he has only had offers from unis with the lowest offer he can always reject these, go into Extra or Clearing, or reapply next year anyway.

Thank you this is really helpful. I think he just coasted last year (FIFA ps3 etc!) and could have done better. He will retake a couple of Maths bits , as the a2 builds on these anyway, so they should be easier next time around. His c grade Maths were bang in the middle. I think bcc for the three bits. His geog was an a and b, so that is optimistic. Physics were c c c buti think we will do a retake on them. I think abb is do able .i am hoping he will see a nice uni this month and then work his socks off. He doesn't want to take a year out, or do a foundation particularly. I just think mostly a grades gcse will work for him in a good way, and he has a good personal stat that lists his engineering work experience ( think he needs to make more of that) and also he did work challenge in the summer, and is on cricket committee etc.
Cream teas, thanks for your comments, that's really helpful. He is grammar, last years results show 75% got a/b grades though, and I don't think he is considered in that last 25% anyway. I said he needs to go to school with it written down what he can move what up to, and look like he will get stuck in! Can I just confirm that you thought that if we can wrangle BBB on predictions he can apply for a uni that states ABb required without a straight rejection? Thank you again, I really appreciate your help.

moose I can't give you any guarantees, because it will also depend on the policy where he is applying, how popular or otherwise the course is he wants to do and what the subject he wants to study.

Next year students who get ABB are outside of the quota given to universities, so the number of places is only limited by how many students a university wants (or outside agencies eg NHS places). Classroom-based subjects are relatively easy to expand, lab-based subjects less so.

So ABB+ offers for classroom based subjects are likely to increase quite a bit this year. Lab-based should also increase but not as much.

Well he has gone into school today and asked for his Maths to be upped, and they said no, it's set on stone and it's C !! I think it's really unreasonable. Doe anyone know for a fact if once predicted they can't be changed please? he won't submit his form yet anyway. His results so far in Maths modules are B (stats retake went from d to B) and C for the other two. The harder work this year should make the old work easy, and so he will retake. At the mo he has 195 out of 300. Overall this is half way between a B and C (180-210). I said I need to go in, he said no mum! I am so cross, it rules out loads of chances of offers. If he pulled his finger and mde more sense of it I am sure he could get his B grade! Please does anyone know if once predicted, but not submitted at this stage, they may change them up? His other two are exactly the same, half way on the marks. If they all put them up he would get ABB prediction. C won't get him what he wants.thanks. Sorry to go on!!

It is entirely up to the school. We predict what we think students will get - that is what predicted grades are. This has to be based on their work ethic and results in L6. Whilst retaking may well improve his AS grades all that time spent revising for retakes is detracting from learning the new material.

He can either apply this year based on his current predictions or take a gap year and apply next year on actual grades (or both of course). I think though there does need to be a realistic view of what he is capable of achieving.

The person writing the UCAS reference for one of our students last year and because she 'needed' an A in my subject, against my recommendation. She got an offer, got her hopes up, and got a B. A good grade, above her target in fact, but not enough to get her the place.

Garbled first sentence!

I predicted B. It was changed to A to get an unachievable offer.

Thanks, I appreciate your replies. One uni wants abb, but said they will take BBB , although the offer will be abb, which is fair enough. I would just like him to have a decent course to aspire to. I know he can get in on other uni courses with bbc or bcc, so he can use that as insurance . If he ditches the FIFA play station that's a step in the right direction , he coasted last year, but his gcse were mainly a, so that's why I think he can stretch, and a retake Maths module went from d to b too. At the end of the day I would be delighted if he got a BBB, but bcc would still get him a good uni. And b and c grades are decent enough in my eyes, but it's the elusive ABB attainment that opens doors! He Can also get a fab uni foundation place with BBB as well, but it's another year, so I don't think he will.

Universities put a lot of weight on predicted grades, but some will make offers based on personal statements and/or references. They will ask for approx. their standard offer, even if it is miles above teacher predictions.

You need to consult with the UCAS tutors at the school to plot strategy. They should know which universities just offer regardless and which ones scour the application form.

Whatever you do, you should have one stretch, but still realistic, choice, two on-target choices, and two low/insurance choices. Unless it's medicine/dentistry/vet, there are are courses to meet all levels of A-level achievement.

The trouble withplacing huge reliance on predicted grades is that they are so subjective.