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Guest post: “Transport is about to change massively”

112 replies

MumsnetGuestPosts · 17/04/2019 14:58

The CEO of Volvo said something very interesting recently. He remarked that the potential for self-driving technologies to reduce road deaths was so great that it would be irresponsible for car makers to introduce them too quickly. A premature launch could lose public confidence and put at risk the social buy-in needed for the technology to become established.

Of course the famous Mandy Rice-Davies line applies here: "He would say that, wouldn't he?" The large car manufacturers are all highly concerned that tech insurgents may come in and take this new market before they are ready.

Still, one can understand his view - something like 85 per cent of road deaths are the result of human error. Reducing that total significantly would be an extraordinary achievement. Losing that opportunity would be a disaster.

But the key point is clear: transport is about to change massively. No-one knows when, but at some point self-driving cars will become a reality. Indeed, many parents who drive today are already seeing the early signs, with automatic lane and distance adjustment, and self-parking.

In their own way, these and other huge changes may be as much of a transport revolution as the coming of the railways or the first commercial flights. They have the potential to make the UK a greener, safer and more inclusive place, as fossil fuel-powered cars are replaced by those running on electricity or hydrogen, autonomy gives freedom to people who may be house-bound and lonely, and young people book and buy transport on their mobile phones.

These technological advances, and others such as big data, will spark new forms of transport and could cut congestion by creating previously unimagined opportunities for vehicle sharing.

Yet it could also go the other way. Over much of the past century, the car has given people previously unimaginable freedom: to travel, to work, to escape. But at the same time our society has shaped itself around the needs of the internal combustion engine, at a serious cost to air quality, health and traffic congestion.

Rates of cycling, walking and active travel started to fall off a cliff in the 1950s. And many parents today are worried about letting their children cycle or walk to school.

These issues were all reflected by Mumsnetters earlier this month. In an AIBU thread, posters described how they had considered taking public transport, walking or cycling, only to conclude that driving was easier, safer and ultimately a better fit with the pressures of their daily lives. But active travel - if done safely - is just about the healthiest and greenest thing you can do.

So, if the government is to make the coming transport revolution work for everyone, it needs to do things better this time. It needs to think carefully about how we use those technologies, from electric vehicles to big data, and how we can take the full benefit of their environmental, economic and social benefits.

Just swapping thirty million petrol and diesel vehicles for thirty million electric ones would do nothing to solve our problems of congestion, obesity, or growing social individualism. In fact, it might well be a policy failure of epic proportions.

Managing this transition to a new tech-enabled world of transport is what the government's new Future of mobility urban strategy aims to do. It starts with cities, because that is where technology change is happening fastest, but we will move on to consider the needs of remote and rural areas as well.

The strategy proposes a set of nine principles for government and local authorities, so that technology can be used to make city transport safer, cleaner, and more accessible. They cover a host of areas, including new and emerging forms of public transport as well as private.

Of course, we will look closely at self-driving vehicles. But we are also going to examine e-bikes and e-scooters, and new models of urban transport based on shared use of vehicles and road space, through things like ride-hailing apps and car clubs. In practical terms, we will also be conducting a major regulatory review of transport, to examine whether we need new laws or whether existing ones will suffice.

But this is only one of a vast number of things the government is doing to improve transport. We have almost trebled investment in cycling and walking since 2010, we have announced a host of new measures to improve road safety, and we are investing to make roads better and more resilient at every level, from motorways to local lanes.

These past weeks, however, have been a bit different. With this strategy, we have taken the first steps towards using new technology to create a transport system that will, with luck and hard work, serve all of us better - and our children and grandchildren too.

If you would like to read the 'Future of mobility: urban strategy' you can do so on the gov.uk website.

We will be passing your questions on to Jesse Norman on Wednesday 24 April

OP posts:
Kazzyhoward · 22/04/2019 11:42

Considering the amount of people who can't work out how to "pay at pump" for their petrol or buy a tin of beans from a self service till at the supermarket or still withdraw cash over the counter at a bank instead of using the cash machine, I think we are decades away from everyone being able to work out how to use driverless cars - even ordering one would be a challenge for lots of people, and the thought of actually changing it (i.e. to stop or change route) whilst you're in it is likely to be way beyond most people.

StealthPolarBear · 22/04/2019 11:55

Lots of people saying they need a manual override. Do these people not get taxis, trains, buses? If the drivers fell ill while driving there wouldn't be much we could do.
I suspect the chance of software malfunctioning to that degree is much less than us humans making a mistake, falling asleep or having a heart attack.
I too have just read the passengers :o

AspergersMum · 22/04/2019 12:42

KazzyHoward, I'd feel much better if people who are struggling that much with self-service because of cognitive decline or eyesight issues, were not at the wheel of a car!! I'm guessing that if driverless cars do become the norm, there will be a transition period for such people (and those without smartphones) as taxi drivers won't give up their jobs overnight and it will naturally take some time for people to be convinced enough to give up their cars. Which would be good for all of the Uber drivers that will lose their jobs.

amandacarnet · 22/04/2019 16:18

Stealth, it is incredibly rare for working aged people to take suddenly ill at the wheel so they suddenly can not drive or even pull over. It is so rare it is not something people will think about.
But yes machines and software does malfunction, nearly all of us will have experienced this. My computer in my car has malfunctioned and needed to be reset. People are not stupid. They understand this is a real risk.
And anyone who has hacked into a cars computer also understands that hacking is a real risk. From what I have seen during my lifetime, large commercial institutions do not seem skilled at preventing hacking.

Presumably driverless cars would be designed with intuitive software. If they are well designed they should be as easy to operate as a sat nav. If badly designed then of course only those interested in technology will buy them.

But the point about many people who will struggle to operate them is relevant in the discussion about how driverless cars will help the elderly who are no longer capable of driving, This May simply not be true.

Kazzyhoward · 22/04/2019 19:29

I'd feel much better if people who are struggling that much with self-service because of cognitive decline or eyesight issues, were not at the wheel of a car!!

But lots of those won't be driving at the moment - they'll already be using public transport, taxis etc. I think, early stages at least, the driverless cars will be more attractive to those without their own cars as someone without a car at the moment will be more motivated to use one than a car owner/driver, i.e. for the freedom of new routes, avoiding walks to/from bus stops, etc.

alreadytaken · 23/04/2019 09:37

one of the things people are missing is that driverless cars should come in different sizes - so I could order up a personal pod if I want to get to hospital but a bigger vehicle if I want to transport more. So there would be smaller vehicles than the large cars currently frequently occupied by one person.

It should be possible to design software to recognise a floating carrier bag. Deciding who to hit when you have a bad set of options concerns me much more. I imagine we would all run over the dog instead of the child - but would it drive me off the road rather than hit the child, a choice I hope I'd make?

Many accidents currently are caused by driver error - that would reduce. We cannot expect any form of transport to be perfect.

adaline · 23/04/2019 10:21

Self driving, self charging electric Uber type cars will be the norm. You'll have an app and request one. You could maybe request a private one or a shared one. So if you're on your way somewhere in a shared one it might stop to pick others up.

Surely that only works in cities or large towns/urban areas where everyone is going in vaguely the same direction anyway?

What about rural towns where 90% of the population commutes by car down rural roads with no markings, all of which are frequented by farm traffic (cows being taken down for milking, sheep being moved between fields, horses, tractors) and the majority of which are ridiculously narrow and barely wide enough for one car in places, let alone two. How would driverless cars cope with that kind of scenario?

Rural driving isn't the same as urban driving. Will driverless cars be able to reverse around blind corners? Will they able to cope with "passing places" that are essentially ditches or hedgerows? Will they be able to cope with sheep or cows in the road? None of those are rare scenarios - I commute through rural Cumbria everyday and have to stop for farm traffic/animals or reverse or stop and edge into a hedge on 95% of my journeys because that's the state of the roads. There is no other route I can take either - I already take the best of a bad bunch!

aprarl · 23/04/2019 13:19

And does that mean that some people from London and the big cities could forget how to drive and end up driving even worse then they do now in the countryside?

PrincessTiggerlily · 23/04/2019 17:34

I think it's mainly being developed in the USA where the roads are loooong and wide and apart from say, the NE seaboard and SF, has few pedestrians compared to the UK.

amandacarnet · 24/04/2019 02:07

Yes I have driven some of those long American roads. They tend to have clearer road markings than our roads, are pretty straight and uncomplicated.

alreadytaken · 30/04/2019 09:36

questions were supposed to be passed on 6 days ago. There have been few actual questions but surely we should get some response to this thread?

alreadytaken · 04/05/2019 09:52

Still no response - doesnt encourage comments on other guest posts does it.

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