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Guest post: “Transport is about to change massively”

112 replies

MumsnetGuestPosts · 17/04/2019 14:58

The CEO of Volvo said something very interesting recently. He remarked that the potential for self-driving technologies to reduce road deaths was so great that it would be irresponsible for car makers to introduce them too quickly. A premature launch could lose public confidence and put at risk the social buy-in needed for the technology to become established.

Of course the famous Mandy Rice-Davies line applies here: "He would say that, wouldn't he?" The large car manufacturers are all highly concerned that tech insurgents may come in and take this new market before they are ready.

Still, one can understand his view - something like 85 per cent of road deaths are the result of human error. Reducing that total significantly would be an extraordinary achievement. Losing that opportunity would be a disaster.

But the key point is clear: transport is about to change massively. No-one knows when, but at some point self-driving cars will become a reality. Indeed, many parents who drive today are already seeing the early signs, with automatic lane and distance adjustment, and self-parking.

In their own way, these and other huge changes may be as much of a transport revolution as the coming of the railways or the first commercial flights. They have the potential to make the UK a greener, safer and more inclusive place, as fossil fuel-powered cars are replaced by those running on electricity or hydrogen, autonomy gives freedom to people who may be house-bound and lonely, and young people book and buy transport on their mobile phones.

These technological advances, and others such as big data, will spark new forms of transport and could cut congestion by creating previously unimagined opportunities for vehicle sharing.

Yet it could also go the other way. Over much of the past century, the car has given people previously unimaginable freedom: to travel, to work, to escape. But at the same time our society has shaped itself around the needs of the internal combustion engine, at a serious cost to air quality, health and traffic congestion.

Rates of cycling, walking and active travel started to fall off a cliff in the 1950s. And many parents today are worried about letting their children cycle or walk to school.

These issues were all reflected by Mumsnetters earlier this month. In an AIBU thread, posters described how they had considered taking public transport, walking or cycling, only to conclude that driving was easier, safer and ultimately a better fit with the pressures of their daily lives. But active travel - if done safely - is just about the healthiest and greenest thing you can do.

So, if the government is to make the coming transport revolution work for everyone, it needs to do things better this time. It needs to think carefully about how we use those technologies, from electric vehicles to big data, and how we can take the full benefit of their environmental, economic and social benefits.

Just swapping thirty million petrol and diesel vehicles for thirty million electric ones would do nothing to solve our problems of congestion, obesity, or growing social individualism. In fact, it might well be a policy failure of epic proportions.

Managing this transition to a new tech-enabled world of transport is what the government's new Future of mobility urban strategy aims to do. It starts with cities, because that is where technology change is happening fastest, but we will move on to consider the needs of remote and rural areas as well.

The strategy proposes a set of nine principles for government and local authorities, so that technology can be used to make city transport safer, cleaner, and more accessible. They cover a host of areas, including new and emerging forms of public transport as well as private.

Of course, we will look closely at self-driving vehicles. But we are also going to examine e-bikes and e-scooters, and new models of urban transport based on shared use of vehicles and road space, through things like ride-hailing apps and car clubs. In practical terms, we will also be conducting a major regulatory review of transport, to examine whether we need new laws or whether existing ones will suffice.

But this is only one of a vast number of things the government is doing to improve transport. We have almost trebled investment in cycling and walking since 2010, we have announced a host of new measures to improve road safety, and we are investing to make roads better and more resilient at every level, from motorways to local lanes.

These past weeks, however, have been a bit different. With this strategy, we have taken the first steps towards using new technology to create a transport system that will, with luck and hard work, serve all of us better - and our children and grandchildren too.

If you would like to read the 'Future of mobility: urban strategy' you can do so on the gov.uk website.

We will be passing your questions on to Jesse Norman on Wednesday 24 April

OP posts:
amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 23:46

Asperger sum, I live in a town. My DP has to drive to a fairly rural setting for work. Company who relocated to out of town site.
Many people who live in towns, as opposed to big cities, will not work in the town. It is common to travel for work. The issues is not getting to work, but getting back from work.
There would also have to be over capacity. I am told that with Uber's there are far too many taxis where I live for drivers to make a living. But still at peak times I can wait a long while for a taxi.
Personally unless private cars are massively taxed, I can not see shared cars being financially viable most places. They are only financially viable if you can get public transport to work.

jessicawessica · 18/04/2019 23:48

There is no way in hell that I would ever consider buying a driverless car. And, when they are out there in numbers, there is no way in hell i will trust pedestrian crossings, or even just walking down the street.
I am completely at a loss to understand why anyone would want one in the first place.
What's next....driverless sex? Are we so incapable of actually participating in anything?

amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 23:53

Saga, I wonder though if the inevitable lack of concentration leads to more accidents? Because it is not just avoid8ng hitting a car yourself, it is also noticing and avoiding idiotic drivers.

Kazzyhoward · 19/04/2019 07:01

I expect, and hope, the new technology being worked on to make driverless cars viable can be used in the next generation of electric/driven cars. Things like automatic braking when too close to another car, bike, pedestrian, solid object, etc.., transponders or internet connection to stop a car automatically at a red traffic light, speed limiters to ensure speed limits are respected, etc. Cars "talking" to eachother so that they can all travel at at optimum speed in heavy traffic to avoid "stop/start" congestion., etc.

All of this tech is needed to make driverless cars a possibility, but at the same time, all that tech makes human driven cars so much safer. To me, it's a no brainer - best of both worlds. I just can't see driverless cars ever being introduced in more than a couple of major cities due to the infrastructure changes that will be needed which will cost billions and take decades. But it would be far quicker/cheaper to introduce a lot of the tech in "normal" cars.

Take "smart" traffic lights that could communicate with cars around them via transponders or internet (or even sat nav). They could sense the volume of traffic in coming from each direction and adjust timings of the red/green sequence to make traffic flow more efficiently (less energy wasted/pollution of the stop/start). At the moment, it's "sod's law" that the traffic lights change to red just as you approach them even if there's nothing coming in other directions - so quick and easy to stop that. Or even a pedestrian crossing - a "smart" crossing could sense that you're the last car in the line of traffic and instead of stopping you, let you go through and then change - just a couple of seconds to avoid an unnecessary energy-sapping stop/start.

tilder · 19/04/2019 07:36

I remember being shown a photo of a street, I think in London, full of horses. Followed by a second photo, same street, 5-10 years later. Could barely see the horses for the cars. Bit of an eye opener.

I completely get the concerns about car use- accident risk, congestion, local air pollution. BUT the critical thing is climate change. Please don't ignore that in the rush.

We need electric. Which is only green if from a non nuclear, non fossil fuel source. Millions of electric cars powered by gas power stations would not be the solution.

With driverless cars, my issues are:

I like driving
I live rurally
I carry lots of stuff in the car

Ali1cedowntherabbithole · 19/04/2019 08:17

Fully agree with Tilder’s list. I’d also add that people use cars for a series of journeys, school run/work commute/shops/after-school clubs/own hobbies/taking dogs to the forest.

So I’m not convinced that a sharing/Uber type model would work.

Heratnumber7 · 19/04/2019 08:54

Wow! So many negative comments.

I agree with every one of them though! The government of the day will need to run a massively persuasive publicity awareness campaign to make the shift happen. Like the seatbelt campaign or the smoking kills campaign or the AIDS campaign, but bigger.

EvaHarknessRose · 19/04/2019 10:22

I guess this is why they want us talking about it.

PrincessTiggerlily · 19/04/2019 14:32

Something like 85 per cent of road deaths are the result of human error

Is that because 99.99% of drivers are humans.

amandacarnet · 19/04/2019 14:58

Good point made that car manufacturers sell cars based on self actualisation and freedom and this would require a massive shift in attitude. I remember a thread on MN about how speed limiters should be fitted to all cars so no one can go above the speed limit. I thought this was an uncontroversial idea, but the thread was mainly full of negative comments.
I can see that if you did not need to concentrate at all, self driving cars could be promoted on the idea that it leaves you free to read a book, etc. But we are a very long way from being able to do that.

amandacarnet · 19/04/2019 15:04

Remember that although most people use cars for a small part of the day, most people use them at roughly the same time. Commute to work, school run, errands after work, or dropping kids at activities after the school run.
Also any technology has to be able to distinguish from a plastic bag blowing across the road and a solid object like a geese on the road. Hitting one will not matter, hitting the other will cause damage to your car at the very least. I suspect that is pretty difficult to achieve.
Ian actually surprised that accidents caused by drivers is not higher. It's like saying 100% of people die of something. When all cars are driven by drivers, it is a pretty meaningless statistic.

Backwoodsgirl · 19/04/2019 15:18

I live very rurally, a large % of my driving includes towing a trailer, hauling firewood in a pickup or driving down dirt roads that are not on a map,

I am confident that self driving technology would not benefit me, and moving to a urban environment is not a option.

cushioncovers · 19/04/2019 16:20

Can't wait for self driving cars. As someone who has nearly an hours commute either way, most of it stuck in traffic I look forward to the car doing it for me so I can get more sleep 😂

amandacarnet · 19/04/2019 16:22

I have heard young people say they are not learning to drive as they are waiting for self drive cars. I think they are being naive.

bodgeitandscarper · 19/04/2019 17:13

I think all the previous posters have made valid points. I also think that the 'green' image of electric vehicles is being overstated; the materials for batteries produce a huge environmental impact.
Also it is actually the particles from brake discs, the heavier load on tyres and road dust which are also responsible for particulate pollution.
Then we have the issue of producing the electricity in the first place, as well as installing the infrastructure to charge them all.

I think we'd be better served researching a combustion engine which can run cleanly on alternative fuels.
I've also been informed from a reliable source that driverless cars are nowhere near as ready as we're being led to believe.

AwdBovril · 19/04/2019 17:40

Yeah, I don't imagine it will happen very quickly. We didn't even have channel 5 until the switchover to digital. I was only able to buy a digital radio 6 months ago, the town just didn't have signal before that. And I live in a large rural town of population 30k+. Realistically, if it's not about London, investment tends to be patchy & slow.

I would love a self driving car, FWIW. I'm disabled & medically unable to drive.

Gingerkittykat · 19/04/2019 18:19

The government want to get people out of their cars yet public transport is already a nightmare.

The commuter trains into Edinburgh are regularly cancelled with no notice, and if you can get on they are overcrowded and cost a fortune. There is a lack of trains and carriages, which they are ordering but it shouldn't have been allowed to get into this mess.

In Edinburgh itself there is really good public transport. The employee owned bus service is reasonably priced and frequent. Travel a few miles outside the city and you have Stagecoach making massive profits with pretty poor services.

SinkGirl · 19/04/2019 18:37

I’d love to use public transport with my twins but it’s completely inaccessible to me. They both have autism, I can’t fit their double buggy on the bus unless there are no other buggy or wheelchair users on the bus, we would have to get off if a wheelchair user got on, I have to let multiple buses go past before we can fit on one, I have to keep them in the buggy as they have no sense of danger and I couldn’t keep them both safe.

I’d love to use public transport more often but it’s not accessible and it’s stupidly expensive.

tilder · 19/04/2019 21:25

Fwiw, I think electric cars will be the majority in 5-10 years. Maybe just 5.

Yes there is pollution involved in manufacture. Plus pollution from wear and tear. The thing that will and is changing our planet is climate change. We need electric cars if we are to address this.

Alternative fuels have been explored for years, nothing viable yet.

ethelredonagoodday · 19/04/2019 21:34

Just re the comment from a previous poster @Kazzyhoward I think, on smart signals etc, such systems do already exist and are in place in some areas. But varies from area to area depending on the local council and the systems they work with. But technology is moving quite quickly in some areas.

LittleGreenLights · 19/04/2019 21:40

@cushioncovers but that’s the thing! Apparently you still need to “pay attention”!!!

cushioncovers · 19/04/2019 21:46

Oh well that's no fun

jessicawessica · 19/04/2019 22:11

Didn't someone get run over by a driverless car a couple of years ago?

SaGa · 19/04/2019 22:58

@amandacarnet Speaking from my experience, the only collision I had was when someone hit me from behind (bless her socks, the poor girl couldn’t find the brake pedal 😂 apparently) When any idiot pulls into my lane without warning, the car slows down and an alarm beeps. I guess I am finding it difficult to articulate why it makes me feel safe; I am fully aware of the traffic whilst driving and have my hands on the wheel. But I find I am exhausted if I have to drive diesel car for one full week to work.

amandacarnet · 20/04/2019 00:46

Fwiw, I think electric cars will be the majority in 5-10 years. Maybe just 5.

I doubt it very much. The majority of cars are bought second hand, not new. So for the majority of cars to be driverless, then those who do buy new would have to already be onto their second driverless car. Plus they do not yet work with indistinct or no road markings. I live in a town. At the moment I could not park a driverless car on my drive, or drive out to the countryside which we do most weekends. I also could not drive the last bit of the private road to my sports centre.
I can believe that in five years time the majority of cars on the road will have some features of new technology such as cruise control and parking aids. But that is a long way from truly driverless cars.