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Guest post: “Transport is about to change massively”

112 replies

MumsnetGuestPosts · 17/04/2019 14:58

The CEO of Volvo said something very interesting recently. He remarked that the potential for self-driving technologies to reduce road deaths was so great that it would be irresponsible for car makers to introduce them too quickly. A premature launch could lose public confidence and put at risk the social buy-in needed for the technology to become established.

Of course the famous Mandy Rice-Davies line applies here: "He would say that, wouldn't he?" The large car manufacturers are all highly concerned that tech insurgents may come in and take this new market before they are ready.

Still, one can understand his view - something like 85 per cent of road deaths are the result of human error. Reducing that total significantly would be an extraordinary achievement. Losing that opportunity would be a disaster.

But the key point is clear: transport is about to change massively. No-one knows when, but at some point self-driving cars will become a reality. Indeed, many parents who drive today are already seeing the early signs, with automatic lane and distance adjustment, and self-parking.

In their own way, these and other huge changes may be as much of a transport revolution as the coming of the railways or the first commercial flights. They have the potential to make the UK a greener, safer and more inclusive place, as fossil fuel-powered cars are replaced by those running on electricity or hydrogen, autonomy gives freedom to people who may be house-bound and lonely, and young people book and buy transport on their mobile phones.

These technological advances, and others such as big data, will spark new forms of transport and could cut congestion by creating previously unimagined opportunities for vehicle sharing.

Yet it could also go the other way. Over much of the past century, the car has given people previously unimaginable freedom: to travel, to work, to escape. But at the same time our society has shaped itself around the needs of the internal combustion engine, at a serious cost to air quality, health and traffic congestion.

Rates of cycling, walking and active travel started to fall off a cliff in the 1950s. And many parents today are worried about letting their children cycle or walk to school.

These issues were all reflected by Mumsnetters earlier this month. In an AIBU thread, posters described how they had considered taking public transport, walking or cycling, only to conclude that driving was easier, safer and ultimately a better fit with the pressures of their daily lives. But active travel - if done safely - is just about the healthiest and greenest thing you can do.

So, if the government is to make the coming transport revolution work for everyone, it needs to do things better this time. It needs to think carefully about how we use those technologies, from electric vehicles to big data, and how we can take the full benefit of their environmental, economic and social benefits.

Just swapping thirty million petrol and diesel vehicles for thirty million electric ones would do nothing to solve our problems of congestion, obesity, or growing social individualism. In fact, it might well be a policy failure of epic proportions.

Managing this transition to a new tech-enabled world of transport is what the government's new Future of mobility urban strategy aims to do. It starts with cities, because that is where technology change is happening fastest, but we will move on to consider the needs of remote and rural areas as well.

The strategy proposes a set of nine principles for government and local authorities, so that technology can be used to make city transport safer, cleaner, and more accessible. They cover a host of areas, including new and emerging forms of public transport as well as private.

Of course, we will look closely at self-driving vehicles. But we are also going to examine e-bikes and e-scooters, and new models of urban transport based on shared use of vehicles and road space, through things like ride-hailing apps and car clubs. In practical terms, we will also be conducting a major regulatory review of transport, to examine whether we need new laws or whether existing ones will suffice.

But this is only one of a vast number of things the government is doing to improve transport. We have almost trebled investment in cycling and walking since 2010, we have announced a host of new measures to improve road safety, and we are investing to make roads better and more resilient at every level, from motorways to local lanes.

These past weeks, however, have been a bit different. With this strategy, we have taken the first steps towards using new technology to create a transport system that will, with luck and hard work, serve all of us better - and our children and grandchildren too.

If you would like to read the 'Future of mobility: urban strategy' you can do so on the gov.uk website.

We will be passing your questions on to Jesse Norman on Wednesday 24 April

OP posts:
AspergersMum · 18/04/2019 13:51

I for one welcome the driverless future. Some people get very aggressive behind the wheel of a car and I won't be sad to see the end of road rage, or the many, many traffic accidents caused by human error. My question is, will the government commit to setting up a system very similar to Uber, so that the framework is there for companies to offer a taxi service from Point A to Point B, using the driverless cars as efficiently as possible? As a pp said, it is inefficient to have a driverless car per household when communities could be using a local fleet for both long and short journeys, but this would work better if coordinated on a national level so that cars were interchangeable anywhere.

Second question, can there be laws passed around accessibility for disabled passengers for the new driverless models? It is no good having disabled people stuck at home if the new cars can't accommodate the people in our society most needing assistance to get around.

I very much look forward to a point my children's futures where "busy" roads with beautiful Victorian houses are an enviable places to live again, minus the traffic fumes, honking, and combustion engines. I just hope it happens in my lifetime, but if Crossrail is anything to go by...

AspergersMum · 18/04/2019 13:59

@Ali1cedowntherabbithole I agree that there needs to be standardisation with charging, how ridiculous that there are different versions already. I think that it all needs to be nationalised to begin with at least, so that councils can be made to provide a certain number of charge points, and those points will work with every single electric car made. It is no good having a driverless car ferry someone from Plymouth to Birmingham, then it drives another 40 miles to the nearest compatible charge station.

It makes me so happy to imagine having far less ugly carparks, and people using driverless cars much like they use Uber now, with lower fares. I wonder if in 10 years' time the AIBU will be "AIBU to let my 6 year old take a driverless car to school".

amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 14:21

Car ownership schemes only really work in big cities like London. I live in a big town, but my do drives fairly rurally for work. With a car ownership scheme there would have to be a lot of over capacity for someone like my DP to be sure of being able to drive back home again. Which is why even in our town, no car ownership scheme exists.
In London because of population density, having to have lots of over capacity is not such an issue.

Self driving cars as subsequently conceived only work on roads with very clear road markings on the edge. So motorways and cities. They do not work on rural area with unclear markings or no markings at all. So for anyone outside if London, self drive cars are not yet going to be any use.
But my question is - given that self drive cars only operate under certain conditions, how do you safeguard people who say live in London, buy a self drive car, but decide to holidayin the countryside. Will there be a built in safe mode so that if roads are unclear the car just stops and refuses to carry on?

ethelredonagoodday · 18/04/2019 14:24

I work in transport planning and it's very exciting, but also an absolute bloody nightmare! ConfusedGrin

amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 14:27

Imagine a scenario where there was a local warehouse of community owned cars (perfect for rural situations) people would order one up, it would collect them, the passengers and the kit then deliver to their location. After that it would return to its base warehouse or a local one

Then that means for anyone outside large cities waiting for a bit for the car to come. Absolutely fine for planned journeys to work, but frustrating for unplanned ones. So if I want to nip to see a friend I will have to wait say 20 to 30 minutes for a car to c9me.
I agree with the person who says this is just like getting a taxi. And I can imagine the same process of being told one is coming in five minutes and waiting ages.
Also it will make little difference to the amount of cars needed unless people are forced to camp share, Andmost people would resist that. Because most people still travel to and from work in the same time period every day. And those people will still need a car to take them to work.

LittleGreenLights · 18/04/2019 14:27

Imagine a scenario where there was a local warehouse of community owned cars (perfect for rural situations) people would order one up, it would collect them, the passengers and the kit then deliver to their location.

But waiting to order one and waiting for it to arrive is not practical. If I need to drive, I need to drive now!

LittleGreenLights · 18/04/2019 14:28

And people need to store certain things in their car - my boot is full of stuff I need for work!

And what about people who have to travel to different sites throughout the working day?

It’s all bollocks. Sorry, but it’s just not practical in the real world.

amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 14:29

Warehouses of cars you order work well for places where most people use public transport to get to work and need a car occasionally.
I am not sure you understand how people actually use cars in rural areas. Certainly for my family some of who live in a rural area with teenagers, there is a lot of unplanned nipping places.

EmpressLesbianInChair · 18/04/2019 14:30

I agree with the person who says this is just like getting a taxi.

Except that when I order a taxi I know the driver has control of it.

I don’t drive. I use feet, public transport & taxis if I really have to. I wouldn’t want to use a driverless car because if something went wrong (assuming there was an emergency manual override option) there would be nothing I could do.

adaline · 18/04/2019 14:34

I am not sure you understand how people actually use cars in rural areas.

Agreed. So many people who live in cities or towns with good transport links simply have no concept of rural life and how difficult it is to cope without your own car.

amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 14:37

I do think self driving cars will come. But they need to be able to operate on roads without clear road markings or no road markings. Or more likely, to be dual control. Dual control self driving cars are more realistic. So self driving mode on the motorway and big cities, you drive it in more rural areas. But then legally there needs to be safety features so the driver is forced to drive it in rural areas, and does not try to use car driving mode to be lazy, on roads where it will not work properly.

I think humans view a self driving car who ends up killing a child, 8n a very different way from a car driven by a driver who ends up killing a child. Even if both deaths could not have been avoided, the former will lead to campaigns to ban self driving cars. There will be lots of public relations issues.

Also will you be allowed to be in a self driving car and be drunk or in drugs? Or will you be expected to be sober and drug free so you can intervene if there is an issue? Because even if the latter, many people will see self driving cars as fine to be in when drunk or on drugs.

amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 14:45

The other concern will be about hacking. I remember when cars first started having on board computers and they were easily hack able. But people just hacked them to do things like turn back the miles meter, illegal but it was not going to kill anyone.
This would concern me as most companies historically have been very poor at embedding security in new computer systems. And a hackable car is obviously dangerous, and a potential terrorist weapon. I suspect legislation is required to ensure very strong security features are embedded. Maybe making car manufacturers responsible for masssive fines if their car is hacked?

ANewEra · 18/04/2019 15:12

DH is part of the team integral to the introduction of drivers cars and is actually at a big meeting today with the department of transport. He reckons they are decades away from having something viable and everyone is hugely over egging the technology they actually have available.

ANewEra · 18/04/2019 15:13

*driverless

EmpressLesbianInChair · 18/04/2019 15:13

Because even if the latter, many people will see self driving cars as fine to be in when drunk or on drugs.

Even if people are sober, I imagine it would be all too easy to lose concentration. Especially on a motorway where you're just being carried in a straight line.

amandacarnet · 18/04/2019 15:28

Yes of course people will lose concentration. And tbh I don't see the point of self driving cars if you still need to concentrate.

DisgraceToTheYChromosome · 18/04/2019 15:57

Volvo have done some great work on automatic emergency braking, and Mercedes have pretty much solved the HGV "platooning" problem. While a driverless HGV is doable right now, the first and final miles of any journey require humans. Today I had to position my artic within a margin of error of six INCHES. The crane isn't automated, so I have to work with its driver. I'm being paid to get it right. Car drivers have no incentive to be so precise: just watch a BMW driver or any harassed parent in heavy traffic. So you automate cars first, which is the hard problem. Then you have to sell the loss of control. Since all cars are advertised on freedom and self-actualisation, a huge attitude shift is going to be necessary. Given that
we know people will vote for real or perceived autonomy, even when they know it comes at a very high price, I can't see it happening.

DisgraceToTheYChromosome · 18/04/2019 16:00

Oh, and when a driverless car is hit by an incompetently driven car, how does it stop? How do the occupants interact?

Preggosaurus9 · 18/04/2019 16:24

The simple solution is to allow cars and associated costs to become more expensive relative to people's earnings, so the top 15% or less can afford to run one.

Everyone else can get a bus or taxi etc.

And yes, rural communities would be utterly shafted.

That's the reality though if stopping climate change is the goal, regardless of the fuel method used. No one likes to admit the incovenient truth that the electricity used for EV comes from power stations, for which the fuel mix is nuclear, gas, coal...!!

lljkk · 18/04/2019 17:41

Rural... flexi car hire? You're having a laugh. It wouldn't be cost-effective unless private cars were completely banned & self-drive vehicles were the only option available.

I've had one Uber experience which went wrong in 3 or 4 different ways. Not impressed by flexi-car services.

AspergersMum · 18/04/2019 18:18

83% of England's population (sorry haven't found NI, Scotland, Wales figures yet on gov.uk) lived in cities or non-rural locations in 2014 so if we accept that not everyone wants to, or can, use an automated taxi, that leaves far under 17% of rural drivers having their own cars. Having grown up veeeeery rural, I understand that it isn't feasible to have driverless cars parked everywhere. But so much of the UK does have feasible roads and I find it extremely exciting to think of how much quieter and more civilised the experience of transportation could be. Buses and trains are so very expensive now and hard to coordinate journeys that aren't one large city to another. A driverless taxi would be fantastic IMO.

lljkk · 18/04/2019 19:33

I can't find a single video or pic of a self-drive park in a private driveway. Hmm

I have a gravel driveway... I mention that, coz I live in a town but on a single lane lane without pavement. Can't park in road without blocking it completely pissing off other drivers . It's not clear the autonomous car would know to use my gravel drive. Instead the self-drive car (I'm supposed to bring my "kit" home in) could try to park around the corner. Today the "kit" was a 20 kg computer desk. How joyful, getting to ruin castor wheels pushing furniture down the gravel to get it to the house. Can't wait for technology to make my life better, gee whiz.

Al2O3 · 18/04/2019 19:34

Why aren't all new houses being built with solar tiles and electric charging point? Massive opportunity lost?

How will a self-drive car know when to slow down or even brake quickly for horses?

Why isn't public transport free?

Firstimer703 · 18/04/2019 22:22

Apparently transported about to undergo the biggest change in 100 years just in the next 15. U just hope it's change that works for people and not just industry!

SaGa · 18/04/2019 23:29

I have a fully electric car and I love it. Yes, there are improvements to be made but my life is infinitely easier with the auto pilot technology. I still have my hands on the wheel but I feel less pressure when I am driving. I actually feel safer with the auto pilot on. I know my car brakes automatically when the car in front is less than 5 car lengths away. It also sticks to the speed limit and auto pilot won’t go over the road’s speed limit. I can reduce the speed on auto pilot but not increase it.
I drive long distance for work and I have to plan my journeys around electric charging points. Thankfully I don’t have much rural travelling so I can manage with motorway charging.
I was very sceptical at first when DH got it but I sincerely feel it is the way forward. There are improvements to be made as others have suggested but we need to be open minded about it.