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Guest post: “Transport is about to change massively”

112 replies

MumsnetGuestPosts · 17/04/2019 14:58

The CEO of Volvo said something very interesting recently. He remarked that the potential for self-driving technologies to reduce road deaths was so great that it would be irresponsible for car makers to introduce them too quickly. A premature launch could lose public confidence and put at risk the social buy-in needed for the technology to become established.

Of course the famous Mandy Rice-Davies line applies here: "He would say that, wouldn't he?" The large car manufacturers are all highly concerned that tech insurgents may come in and take this new market before they are ready.

Still, one can understand his view - something like 85 per cent of road deaths are the result of human error. Reducing that total significantly would be an extraordinary achievement. Losing that opportunity would be a disaster.

But the key point is clear: transport is about to change massively. No-one knows when, but at some point self-driving cars will become a reality. Indeed, many parents who drive today are already seeing the early signs, with automatic lane and distance adjustment, and self-parking.

In their own way, these and other huge changes may be as much of a transport revolution as the coming of the railways or the first commercial flights. They have the potential to make the UK a greener, safer and more inclusive place, as fossil fuel-powered cars are replaced by those running on electricity or hydrogen, autonomy gives freedom to people who may be house-bound and lonely, and young people book and buy transport on their mobile phones.

These technological advances, and others such as big data, will spark new forms of transport and could cut congestion by creating previously unimagined opportunities for vehicle sharing.

Yet it could also go the other way. Over much of the past century, the car has given people previously unimaginable freedom: to travel, to work, to escape. But at the same time our society has shaped itself around the needs of the internal combustion engine, at a serious cost to air quality, health and traffic congestion.

Rates of cycling, walking and active travel started to fall off a cliff in the 1950s. And many parents today are worried about letting their children cycle or walk to school.

These issues were all reflected by Mumsnetters earlier this month. In an AIBU thread, posters described how they had considered taking public transport, walking or cycling, only to conclude that driving was easier, safer and ultimately a better fit with the pressures of their daily lives. But active travel - if done safely - is just about the healthiest and greenest thing you can do.

So, if the government is to make the coming transport revolution work for everyone, it needs to do things better this time. It needs to think carefully about how we use those technologies, from electric vehicles to big data, and how we can take the full benefit of their environmental, economic and social benefits.

Just swapping thirty million petrol and diesel vehicles for thirty million electric ones would do nothing to solve our problems of congestion, obesity, or growing social individualism. In fact, it might well be a policy failure of epic proportions.

Managing this transition to a new tech-enabled world of transport is what the government's new Future of mobility urban strategy aims to do. It starts with cities, because that is where technology change is happening fastest, but we will move on to consider the needs of remote and rural areas as well.

The strategy proposes a set of nine principles for government and local authorities, so that technology can be used to make city transport safer, cleaner, and more accessible. They cover a host of areas, including new and emerging forms of public transport as well as private.

Of course, we will look closely at self-driving vehicles. But we are also going to examine e-bikes and e-scooters, and new models of urban transport based on shared use of vehicles and road space, through things like ride-hailing apps and car clubs. In practical terms, we will also be conducting a major regulatory review of transport, to examine whether we need new laws or whether existing ones will suffice.

But this is only one of a vast number of things the government is doing to improve transport. We have almost trebled investment in cycling and walking since 2010, we have announced a host of new measures to improve road safety, and we are investing to make roads better and more resilient at every level, from motorways to local lanes.

These past weeks, however, have been a bit different. With this strategy, we have taken the first steps towards using new technology to create a transport system that will, with luck and hard work, serve all of us better - and our children and grandchildren too.

If you would like to read the 'Future of mobility: urban strategy' you can do so on the gov.uk website.

We will be passing your questions on to Jesse Norman on Wednesday 24 April

OP posts:
amandacarnet · 20/04/2019 00:48

Sorry meant to add with electric cars, there is simply not the infrastructure in place. Many places have no or few charging points. And to charge at home yo7 need to be able to park right outside your house.
I seriously looked into getting an electric car and it was clear that charging would be a major issue.

littlebillie · 20/04/2019 07:52

I think it would be a a fantastic change as there would be an end to car ownership the roads would be quieter too as you would pay for each individual journey. I imagine Uber will lead they way on this

alreadytaken · 20/04/2019 07:58

Driverless cars will be wonderful for anyone who is unable to drive though poor health, for the elderly, for children. However I can not see how they would work on Britain's rural lanes where it's necessary to decide rapidly who goes first, to reverse a lot and to pull into a hedge at times.

My questions are these - when will you require uniform charging points for electric cars and when will you install charging points in every lampost. I want to get an electric car but I sometimes need to make long journeys. These are impractical at present because the cars dont all use the same charging points and there are not enough charging points.

If I am allowed another question - when will electric scooters cease to be illegal?

MrsArchchancellorRidcully · 20/04/2019 08:43

Most people are assessing this based on urban use.

The needs of more rural areas and the needs of people like me are not being thought about.

I drive around 20k a year, most on business. The job I do has to be done face to face. The trust I need to build up during my 2 hr meeting cannot be gained remotely (we've tried) and I need to be in the location I will spend about 2 hrs in. I then drive about an hour and spend another 2 hours in a second meeting. Often times are tight and I need to jump in the car and go. There is no car sharing network I can imagine that would work for me in my job. The needs of everyone must be considered.

MrsArchchancellorRidcully · 20/04/2019 08:48

Also the previous comment about alternative fuels.

Hydrogen fuel cell technology could have the potential to provide limitless FREE clean energy for cars after the initial lay out. The technology has been bought by an oil giant and research quietly mothballed. Wonder why???

NicoAndTheNiners · 20/04/2019 09:18

I do think car ownership will fall massively in the next 20 years or so.

Self driving, self charging electric Uber type cars will be the norm. You'll have an app and request one. You could maybe request a private one or a shared one. So if you're on your way somewhere in a shared one it might stop to pick others up.

It could work.

EmpressLesbianInChair · 20/04/2019 09:18

Driverless cars will be wonderful for anyone who is unable to drive though poor health, for the elderly, for children.

Except that if something goes wrong and the person in the car needs to take over quickly - if that’s an option - anyone who can’t drive is in big trouble.

NicoAndTheNiners · 20/04/2019 10:20

xcept that if something goes wrong and the person in the car needs to take over quickly - if that’s an option - anyone who can’t drive is in big trouble.

You could say that about taxis now, if the taxi driver is ill suddenly an elderly person can't drive the car. But the taxi company would sort the issue out.

Same will happen with driverless cars, they'll all be gps tracked by a central office and another car will be sent out to pick up passengers and the company will deal with the broken down one.

64632K · 20/04/2019 10:33

The algorithms that are programmed into self driving cars need a lot of work still and will not have the capability to adjust as quickly and flexibly as the human brain. I would rather wait until its right before hastily introducing them

Backwoodsgirl · 20/04/2019 11:00

Hydrogen fuel cell technology could have the potential to provide limitless FREE clean energy for cars after the initial lay out.

This, electric cars are a dead technology. Hydrogen cars and nuclear power plants coupled with renewables is the future.

aprarl · 20/04/2019 13:45

I wish I could read the Michael Crichton version of all this!

HowardTJMoon · 20/04/2019 14:17

Hydrogen fuel cells are a fantastic technology and work very well. That's not the problem. The problem is in storing and transporting the hydrogen. A car running on LPG only has to pressurise the tank to around 100psi and then they have a nice, dense room-temperature liquid.

The cars and buses that are already running on hydrogen (there are some) are having to pressurise their tanks to 5,000 or 10,000psi to get usable driving range. That's scary high pressure. I'm not sure I'd want to sit in a car with a 10,000psi tank of explosive gas sitting underneath my seat.

Backwoodsgirl · 20/04/2019 14:52

HowardTJMoon

What’s the pressure of a LPG tank? It’s a danger yes, but only a different danger to what people are used to

amandacarnet · 20/04/2019 14:58

People will only order shared cars if they are poorer. Because that is basically public transport. And lots of people hate sharing spaces in this way.

Kazzyhoward · 20/04/2019 19:44

the roads would be quieter too

I just can't see that at all. I think the number of cars on the road will actually increase. People who currently use buses/trams may be likely to switch to driverless cars to avoid the "undesirables". With a driverless car, you're more likely to want the journey to be "door to door" rather than a walk at each end from home to the bus/tram stop and then from the end stop to your workplace. For someone already using a car, it changes nothing - the car is still on the road for similar times each day - the only difference is that it's not parked up in a works car park all day - in fact, it'll be on the roads more as it will then use the roads to go to it's next job or return to a central parking/charging area. It has the potential to create complete grid lock, made even worse if each car is constantly stopping whenever it senses a hazard, i.e. think about those rotating doors at the entrances to hotels and shopping centres which stop when someone stands too close to the sensor and the few second delay to start it again - that could easily become "the norm" in busy areas with pets, people, bikes, floating carrier bags, birds, etc.

amandacarnet · 21/04/2019 04:49

Good point. I suspect floating carrier bags will prove to be a real pain for driverless cars.

NicoAndTheNiners · 21/04/2019 07:48

I used to have a vw camper and it's common for people to have lpg conversions. I didn't personally but the technology is proven and I guess safe.

centralmix · 21/04/2019 08:08

I would be very happy to use an Uber type shared transport system, it could work in my small town. But government have to fund this.

Driverless cars - you're ahead of the demand; even this thread shows there's no appetite for this. You have to get the basics of punctual, sufficient and widespread public transport sorted before resorting to driverless cars. That's what people really want - and will respond to at the ballot box.

Also - proper, safer cycle lanes...

Can government not fund cycle hire schemes in small towns and cities. It's not just big cities where this is effective way of getting around (although I appreciate that there have been issues in Manchester with theft etc).

JohnMcCainsDeathStare · 21/04/2019 08:21

Seems that rural people don't exist. How will this revolution help rural communities where they might be two buses a day at times which are only suitable for people to go on shopping trips? I drive but there are large swathes of the country where I could not consider living because there is no effective public transport that works for students and working age people. The countryside is both being starved as working age people don't want to move there ans others are trapped there die to poor transport.

If electric transport is efficient for rural areas than it would be a major Infrastructure boom in terms of improving communication links and reducing overcrowding ans pollution in cities. But given this current Government record on slashing budgrsyfor services and forgetting that it's supposed to be running a country I am somewhat cynical of this revolution.

PrincessTiggerlily · 21/04/2019 08:46

More people would fly.
One of the good things about flying is that it is usually out of the built up areas and you can park your car in a large carpark for as long as needed and the wheels will still be on it when you pick it up.
This isn't the case for trains. Railway stations are in the centre of towns and cities. I suppose because people were going to get the bus to the station. Now people without available buses have nowhere to park due to safety or lack of parking.
They should build rail hubs rather like airports, maybe just off motorways so you have a safe place for your car and can jump on the train there and also connect to others. Right now it is a mish mash and you have to drive at an slow pace all through the city to get to it.

Kazzyhoward · 21/04/2019 15:20

They should build rail hubs rather like airport

As usual, other countries are way ahead of us. I've just come back from a business trip to Amsterdam and stayed in a hotel overlooking the Sloterdijk railway station. It was situated on "bridges" on top of the bus and tram terminus and had trains literally going in every direction, North, South, East & West in a cross configuration. Combined with a ridiculously frequent service, literally a train every few minutes to the centre and every 10 minutes or so to the airport.

Compare that to my local town where the bus station is a mile's walk away from the train station with only a slow/infrequent bus service between the two! Neither of which had any realistically sized car park either. And people wonder why we don't use public transport more.

Kazzyhoward · 21/04/2019 15:22

Also - proper, safer cycle lanes...

Safer for who? I've just come back from Amsterdam and the cyclists were a pain in the neck, literally everywhere you look - cycle paths, roads, pavements, even people cycling on ferries rather than getting off and walking with them, not to mention cycles on trains blocking doors etc. On the cycle tracks, they completely ignored pedestrian crossings.

Cycling may be good for cyclists in Amsterdam, but an absolute nightmare for pedestrians. So be careful what you wish for.

amandacarnet · 21/04/2019 15:43

I would actually love proper driverless cars where I can read a book instead of focusing on the road. And I was interested in buying an electric car. But neither are currently feasible where I live.
A neighbour does have an electric car, plus a petrol one. They use the petrol one for longer journeys where charging is an issue and the electric one for town driving. I only have one car, but I can see for multi car households an electric car as one of their cars, is more realistic. Although environmentally multi car households are a nightmare.

EmpressLesbianInChair · 21/04/2019 17:55

Cycling may be good for cyclists in Amsterdam, but an absolute nightmare for pedestrians. So be careful what you wish for.

That’s what I’m worried about, especially if when electric bikes / scooters become a thing people decide to ride them on pavements.

AspergersMum · 22/04/2019 09:18

Kazzyhoward, by "quieter" I think most people are talking in decibels, although I agree with your point that fewer people will want to take public transport. There shouldn't be gridlock if the government takes control of a system on a national level as driverless cars would all be on the grid, assessing the fastest way to go as our sat navs do now. OK so there would probably still be gridlock as certain locations will still be very popular, but with a driverless car you'd have the option of having the car stop, drop you off, and you walk the rest of the way. Having queued outside hospitals, I'd love that option.