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General election 2024

What are you expecting?

112 replies

Lovepeaceunderstanding · 24/06/2024 17:25

It is all but a forgone conclusion that Labour will form our next government.
How are you expecting your life to change as a result?
what are you most looking forward to or dreading?
I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

OP posts:
JassyRadlett · 27/06/2024 08:18

I'm more optimistic than some. The economic inheritance is horrific, but there are some quietly radical things in the Labour manifesto that are genuinely pro-growth and if implemented properly could make a difference to our woeful productivity. A greater willingness to admit and tackle market failures should lead to better results for people.

Things like proper planning reform, and industrial policy that isn't neutered by free market ideology and the socioeconomic duty on public bodies are the sorts of policies that aren't "sexy" and don't get picked by the broadcasters as audience-bait questions in the debates but when you look at some of the drivers of stagnation, they are genuinely interesting and should lead to chance over the next few years.

I don't generally vote Labour myself, largely because of electoral geography. But there is some serious structural stuff included in Labour's plans, and I'm hoping it signals a return to serious, non-gimmick driven government.

1dayatatime · 27/06/2024 08:47

@Canterbutytales

"So basically the Tories are the only party that can govern the UK competently ?
They’ve just not had long enough, that it ?"

This is a really interesting post which gets to the core problem

In short no, the Tories did not govern the country properly, but neither will any elected political party.

Why? Because the type of policies needed to stop the slow decline would be so unpopular with average voters that any candidate proposing them would never get elected to become a politician.

The type of unpopular policies would include:
CGT on principle property
Raising the state pension age quicker
Means testing winter fuel allowance and ultimately means testing the state pension.
Structural reform of the NHS
Implementing some form of nominal change to access your GP and NHS so that demand is not just controlled by queuing.
An honest debate on immigration explains that the majority is legal. And that the only reason this happens is because there are few Brits that are willing to pick fruit, work in care homes etc. If you want affordable fruit and functioning care homes then this comes from increased immigration.
A government spending plan that actually reduces national debt.

Instead candidates prefer policies that provide greater spending or cut taxes because that's what will get them elected. They then claim that they will fund this through "cutting wasteful spending ", "clamping down on benefits scroungers", or taxing the wealthy (the wealthy being anyone on more than them), going after tax loopholes (new ones will appear), Growing the economy " etc etc
)

CassieMaddox · 27/06/2024 08:50

LiveAtVillaVillekulla · 26/06/2024 23:45

Wrong, it was conceived for a time when people had lifestyles that were life sustaining rather than destructive, when contributors were outnumbering non-contributors by more than a mere fraction and when the world and his wife weren't coming to take advantage. Plus it was actually ran to be efficient and functional, not a pig through for parasites.

😂
You do know that people who have migrated here have to pay extra to use the NHS?
I suspect it could be like universities and if they left it would cause a huge financial black hole.
It's all simple in GB News land, not so much in real life.

Papyrophile · 27/06/2024 08:53

Just catching up, but I see some sensible comments here. This is a placemarker post while I walk dog.

HelenaWaiting · 27/06/2024 10:16

Meadowtrees · 27/06/2024 05:57

Blossom- I can’t tell if you are being sarcastic? How do you imagine this will happen? Where will the dentists come from? How is the NHS going to see more patients more quickly?

Does every single proposal have to be sneered at and shot down? You aren't making the case for Tory government - you're making the case for nihilism.

ThisOldThang · 27/06/2024 10:25

1dayatatime · 27/06/2024 08:47

@Canterbutytales

"So basically the Tories are the only party that can govern the UK competently ?
They’ve just not had long enough, that it ?"

This is a really interesting post which gets to the core problem

In short no, the Tories did not govern the country properly, but neither will any elected political party.

Why? Because the type of policies needed to stop the slow decline would be so unpopular with average voters that any candidate proposing them would never get elected to become a politician.

The type of unpopular policies would include:
CGT on principle property
Raising the state pension age quicker
Means testing winter fuel allowance and ultimately means testing the state pension.
Structural reform of the NHS
Implementing some form of nominal change to access your GP and NHS so that demand is not just controlled by queuing.
An honest debate on immigration explains that the majority is legal. And that the only reason this happens is because there are few Brits that are willing to pick fruit, work in care homes etc. If you want affordable fruit and functioning care homes then this comes from increased immigration.
A government spending plan that actually reduces national debt.

Instead candidates prefer policies that provide greater spending or cut taxes because that's what will get them elected. They then claim that they will fund this through "cutting wasteful spending ", "clamping down on benefits scroungers", or taxing the wealthy (the wealthy being anyone on more than them), going after tax loopholes (new ones will appear), Growing the economy " etc etc
)

Or there just needs to be massive cuts to benefits, including PIP and child DLA.

People playing the system to maximise their UC income, for the minimum hours worked, will be forced to work full-time (boo hoo for them). The people claiming DLA for kids with conditions that don't actually have any incurred costs, such as ADHD, will simply have to make do without the extra £800 a month.

Overseas aid to countries such as China can go.

There is so, so, much waste and unnecessary spending that can be cut.

EasternStandard · 27/06/2024 10:34

HelenaWaiting · 27/06/2024 10:16

Does every single proposal have to be sneered at and shot down? You aren't making the case for Tory government - you're making the case for nihilism.

It does need to be realistic though. Even the IFS have said conspiracy of silence on this

1dayatatime · 27/06/2024 10:48

@ThisOldThang

"There is so, so, much waste and unnecessary spending that can be cut"

The problem with "cutting waste " is that one person's waste is another person's essential service.

Spending £600 million on eat out to help out imo was a waste of taxpayers money and I was firmly of the view at the time. What is conveniently forgotten by those now criticising Sunak is that the majority of the public were hugely supportive of this policy and there were calls to extend it- Sunak's popularity was sky high at the time of this policy.

The harsh reality is no party will ever be elected to make the much needed, complex, painful, overdue and unpopular changes to make a long term difference to the country and economy when the majority of voters are basing their political views on whether they can get a half priced Nando's

Papyrophile · 27/06/2024 14:13

I am still debating how to vote, because like most of the informed posters here, I understand the constraints on what is possible because of the debt burden. Inflation is dropping back, and interest rates will follow, which should help. The black hole remains however, and unless productivity improves rapidly (possibly through investment in technology, the downside of that will be job losses though) there won't be enough growth to create a lift and feel good factor.

I am cheered that @JassyRadlett thinks there are grounds for optimism, and a huge YES to improving planning policy. But until the benefits system is scaled back to stop subsidising big employers' low wages and limited hours contracts, it won't happen. If cheap labour can be imported, then there's no appetite for investment. In the 1990s, automatic carwashes were fairly standard but now, near me, it costs less to get a handwash and mini valet from the Albanian/Romanian place than the machine which also harvests and reuses the wash-water. A stupid example, I know, but telling.

Today's FT suggests turnout is going to be low, and their tracker of 46 polls indicates that both major parties have lost support (although Labour's lead remains steady at 20%). If these figures come to pass, the result would give the two main parties combined under 63% of votes and the minor parties' near 40% share won't be recognised in Parliament by elected MPs.

Papyrophile · 27/06/2024 14:15

To bore on, the French first round of voting on Sunday is going to be interesting. Macron's fit of pique may have alarming consequences for EU stability.

verdantverdure · 27/06/2024 14:32

How many billions did the Tories spend on VIP Lane PPE again? How many millions to store it and burn it?

How many billions worth of Covid fraud did the Tories write off?

How many billions worth of extra interest are we paying on our national debt because the Tories didn't manage it competently.

How many billions did the pension bailout cost after the Tory fiscal event?

How many billions are we paying over the odds for substandard services such as children's homes or asylum accommodation?

How many billions is Brexit costing us every year?

The Tories just waste our country's money and we can't afford to let them go on doing it for another five years.

EasternStandard · 27/06/2024 14:37

Papyrophile · 27/06/2024 14:15

To bore on, the French first round of voting on Sunday is going to be interesting. Macron's fit of pique may have alarming consequences for EU stability.

Not just the EU. Depending who wins it could impact U.K. stability

grannycake · 27/06/2024 14:39

I'm expecting Labour to put country before party unlike the current version of the Conservative Party

rockstarshoes · 27/06/2024 15:05

'Or there just needs to be massive cuts to benefits, including PIP and child DLA.

People playing the system to maximise their UC income, for the minimum hours worked, will be forced to work full-time (boo hoo for them). The people claiming DLA for kids with conditions that don't actually have any incurred costs, such as ADHD, will simply have to make do without the extra £800 a month.

Overseas aid to countries such as China can go.

There is so, so, much waste and unnecessary spending that can be cut.'

Or how about they crack down on higher rate taxpayers paying huge sums into their personal pensions so they can still claim child benefit?
See those threads on here all the time!

notgettinganyyounger · 27/06/2024 15:11

I'm expecting Labour to be gone within the next 5 years. Even if they get in with this alleged 'landslide'. I haven't even met a single Labour voter for this election, in real life.

nearlylovemyusername · 27/06/2024 15:19

Next six months - will hear "it's all much worse than expected and there's no money" many times a day, then significant tax rises on middle/higher earners. All savings/investments/assets will be taxed to the eyeballs. Those mysterious super rich won't be contributing.

A bit of tailwind with falling inflation and interest rates and stopping of bond buying so some extra money for Labour (which is just lucky coincidence).

Next five years - considerable outflow of high earners / high net worth individuals out of the UK and early retirements and reduced hours amongst higher earners. Productivity won't increase, services won't improve because not just investments but major restructuring needed, immigration will be much higher to compensate for labour shortages.

Feeling of more equality as a result of levelling down.

The next election will be very interesting - depends on how successful Labour are in pushing agenda that "they inherited such horror than one term is not enough", they either get next term or Reform gets majority.

nearlylovemyusername · 27/06/2024 15:24

EasternStandard · 27/06/2024 14:37

Not just the EU. Depending who wins it could impact U.K. stability

Most definitely - with Le Pen being Putin's muppet and Rayner's view on nuclear deterrent I dread to think about wider consequences.

BIossomtoes · 27/06/2024 15:42

Next six months - will hear "it's all much worse than expected and there's no money"

I think in the next six months we might hear “There’s actually a lot more money than we thought. We’ve found all these ways your money’s being squandered and they’re going to stop”. That’s obviously after Rwanda’s gone in the bin.

Papyrophile · 27/06/2024 15:44

I do hope you're right @Blossomtoes.

EasternStandard · 27/06/2024 15:46

nearlylovemyusername · 27/06/2024 15:24

Most definitely - with Le Pen being Putin's muppet and Rayner's view on nuclear deterrent I dread to think about wider consequences.

God hopefully not that bad

I was thinking more along the lines of UK taking on France’s migration issues.

It’d be an easy win for Le Pen and Starmer would have no counter

BIossomtoes · 27/06/2024 15:50

Papyrophile · 27/06/2024 15:44

I do hope you're right @Blossomtoes.

Me too.

nearlylovemyusername · 27/06/2024 15:55

@rockstarshoes
"Or how about they crack down on higher rate taxpayers paying huge sums into their personal pensions so they can still claim child benefit?"

So higher rate taxpayers pay huge (to you) amounts into their pension to avoid punitive tax measures. What do you think will happen when Labour crack down (and I'm sure they will)?
Do you think these taxpayers will continue working just as is and just hand over ever increasing amounts to HMRC? or maybe review their life styles and reduce hours/retire early? we are mostly talking about highly skilled demographic here and significant skills shortage, including GPs and consultants

nearlylovemyusername · 27/06/2024 15:57

@BIossomtoes
I love your way of thinking! I'll eat my slippers if this happens 😂

EasternStandard · 27/06/2024 15:59

nearlylovemyusername · 27/06/2024 15:57

@BIossomtoes
I love your way of thinking! I'll eat my slippers if this happens 😂

Yep I think we’ll find dealing with trafficking expensive still. More so as it ramps up

Your other post was a bit concerning @nearlylovemyusername. do you think it’s likely?

verdantverdure · 27/06/2024 16:11

notgettinganyyounger · 27/06/2024 15:11

I'm expecting Labour to be gone within the next 5 years. Even if they get in with this alleged 'landslide'. I haven't even met a single Labour voter for this election, in real life.

Yes you have.

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