In 2019, the Clacton result was:
Giles Watling, Conservative 31,438
Kevin Bonavia, Labour 6,736
Callum Robertson, Liberal Democrat 2,541
Chris Southall, Green Party 1,225
Andy Morgan, Independent 1,099
Colin Bennett, Independent 243
Just-John Sexton, Official Monster Raving Loony Party 224
In 2017, UKIP got 3,357 votes. If Farage can treble this (taking all their votes from the Tories) and Labour manage to double their vote (taking their extra votes from the Tories) then the Tory would still win (Tory 14631, Labour 13472, Reform 10,071)