How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose? pt2

[frankentall]

Listening to Prof Sir John Curtice this morning - it does seem that there may be hope of a massive Tory defeat. It appears they are polling badly everywhere they really need to do well. Cheered me right up.

The markets have Labour at a 97% probability of winning the GE.

If you really think they won’t you can easily multiply your money by 30 with a bet against them.

Very confident they’ll lose, unless there is a massive escalation of conflict in the world.

2029 will be the interesting election. Just look at the almost blanket right wing victories in Europe in last week’s elections. The UK will be a political outlier under Labour. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get trounced by a unified right wing party in 2029.

In the meantime quite how Starmer will interact with other countries leaders almost all of whom will be politically opposed to him and Labour will be interesting to see.

The key will be in how the Tory party react to loss.

If they think they need to move even further to the right to succeed, this is bad news for us all but, also, I would hope we are not a country that would vote in a far right party.

If they take stock and return to having serious MPs who want to serve their country rather than enrich themselves and a centre right approach, they will fair much better. I actually think this country is, primarily, a centre right country and that's where the best political gains are to be had.

Interesting couple of charts. They are a couple of years old now and only refer to economic policy, but I found them interesting none the less.

Though reflecting on that secondchart, it does seem to suggest a centre LEFT party who hit right in the bullseye of all those voter groups, would fair best of all.

Latest projections for the EU Parliament show no great change, with the far right underperforming in many countries: the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavian countries, even in Hungary. The surge is considerably smaller than anticipated.

Don't forget those were EU elections - quite often used to send a protest vote, and since MEPs don't make policy they are much less significant. It will be much more interesting to see how Marine LePen does in the snap French elections.

Why is it bad news for us all?

Significant enough for Macron to call for an election and for the Belgian PM to stand down all within a few hours of the results.

There is a clear move to the right in almost every country now.

I don’t think anyone realistically expects the tories to win, but will it be the landslide predicted, not sure

The right wingers surge is very concentrated in particular countries- France's problem in my opinion appears to be an awful lot of immigration of not great quality and ghettoisation- and younger people starting to struggle more (not dissimilar to uk although not as bad ) and needing something to blame it on- younger people don't usually have assets or cash to fall back on unless they are lucky enough to have family wealth and property there is far less than uk - so inheritances etc are way less in many areas than uk

Pretty sure the Tory's will lose - mainly because Reform will take a lot of their vote

Are you Eastern Standard?

@Charlie2121 Belgium had a general election at the same time as the EU election. The Belgian PM stood down because his party lost enough seats for the governing coalition to fall. Nothing to do with the EU election, in which the Belgian far right did not have the expected surge.

On LBC James O'Brien said Sunak went effectively AWOL at the weekend. What fresh horrors will today bring !

BBC were reporting he has cut back on the number of interviews he had planned to do. I don't blame him really - why bother when he knows he's toast and he can go back to profiting from stuff like the financial crash at our expense?

The current bettings odd for a General Election majority are:

Labour. 1/50 (ie a £50 bet gets you £51 back)

Conservatives 30/1 (ie a £50 bets you £1550 back)

On those odds it's a near certainty that Labour will win.

@FrothyDonkeyMilk
A most sensible & astute comment!
A coalition in times of emergency (global warming, 2.7 Trillion debt, health, education, housing crises, as well as global wars & £ instability) would be far better than 'parties' who promote their own causes & interests.

I'm worried about complacency too. Every vote (against the Tories) counts!

Because I don't think that makes them more electable and because I really do think the more sensible parties we have competing for government, the better. I haven't liked our government for a decade or more now, but that doesn't mean I want to see the Tory party obliterated.

I don't like far right or far left politics and think 'normal' people tend to do better under a more moderate government, whether it be slighty right or slightly left leaning.

At least economically, those charts seem to suggest they are already further right than most votes want - regardless of which colour they vote.

That sounds like the current Labour Party.

The Tory Party have given up on the middle class and spend all their time chasing old Labour votes. Those voters are going Reform. Until the Tory Party can answer the question “who are we for?” they will be lost.

The bookies tend to be right.

I’ll be voting Labour. I am moderately confident the tories will lose but the tories are good at winning elections and have a large body of support from the elderly that I don’t think is being fully accounted for. I don’t think it will be a Labour landslide.

In the northern town I am from, a lot of staunch tories are supporting reform UK and more people are voting Labour that might have voted LD last time. We have a Tory MP but not a massive majority and he’s stepped down. We are a bellwether seat and the Labour PPC has done more for the constituency than the Tory MP ever did.

Diane Abbott doesn’t make a difference, I’m glad she’s standing. She’s not in the shadow cabinet or top Labour team, PP seem to think that will make the difference.

Labour has a challenge with brexit as there are quite a few middle class liberal types constantly bringing it up in England. In Scotland it wasn’t popular either. Ultimately Labour lost its northern wall over brexit and will quickly lose it again over brexit if it isn’t careful.

Tory party doesn’t know who it is or what it stands for. Lib Dem’s are the wet blanket that are only doing ok due to a poor choice (only support a LD vote to GTTO). Greens will split the left vote slightly and reform will mop up a lot of the old Tory and some old labour votes too. SNP (I live in Scotland now) will do poorly at this election as a protest, but probably do ok in Scottish elections, reform not even standing in my constituency.

I think Labour will get in but am scared of the rise of reform UK and their influence over the Tory party and fear in 5-10 years we could have a neo facist government. The UK/england has shifted slightly centre economically but socially is very conservative overall, and that is rising.

No, that wasn't aimed at anyone on here particularly. I was thinking more like media pundits, and the ludicrously triumphant BTL comments from supporters of parties that did poorly ("There you are, I told you Starmer was a wet lettuce. They didn't get anywhere near 600 seats!"). FWIW I have you down in my vague brain file as "sensible left". Apologies if that misrepresents you.

These people are already here and in our public life. There have always been some extremely right wing people in the Conservatives but they were marginal. Brexit has put them front and centre and into Ministerial positions.

They got in because of an older, white voter who is not happy. That would be old Labour and old Tories on the right. I don’t think we will have a very right wing government in the U.K. until and unless those under 50 are talking and speaking like this older group.