How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose? pt2

[frankentall]

Listening to Prof Sir John Curtice this morning - it does seem that there may be hope of a massive Tory defeat. It appears they are polling badly everywhere they really need to do well. Cheered me right up.

Much more so since Farage announced his candidacy.

Interesting. Can’t stand the bigoted twat but he’s a pretty shrewd twat, I think. Does that mean he thinks an whole lot worse is going to befall Trump?

Lets hope so,

Idk. It could be that he feels compelled to cut and run because he has the heebies about the Trump campaign in the wake of convictions.

Or, he might think Trump has a winning ticket, and he has the opportunity to hold one solitary seat in the Commons and yet have a more significant relationship with the US president than Starmer and the entire government. It's a disruptive move because it subverts the usual power distribution and would keep him in front of the cameras for four full years. 🙄

He certainly wasn’t charming to me, to me he was the blithering idiot he styles himself as. 😡But so many people adored him, because he was… Boris. “Oh, but he’s so funny, they can’t get rid of him!” He had the knack of making people hang on his every word, even when it made no sense at all, even when he was reciting his scripted briefings. It’s why I christened him Saint Boris, because people worshipped him as one who could save them from the nasty virus with his magic lockdowns. “Boris said this, Boris said that, Boris said you’re only allowed out for an hour a day, Boris said we have to squeeeeeeeeeeze the brakes on reopening…” Somehow I can’t imagine people revering the more dull Theresa May (for example) in this way.

Yes, very true.

It’s called Johnson derangement syndrome and a lot of former Tories suffer from it. I mean they are right. He’s ruined them and their party and simply for his own gratification just like every woman he’s ever slept with. Usually someone’s sex life is totally irrelevant to their politics but in this instance it really did reveal something about how he would operate.

Of course now Johnson has disappeared. His end of the pier act perhaps isn’t quite as good as Nigel Farage.

99.9999999...% certain. Obviously you can't be 100% about anything. But, it's as good as 100%.

Sunak is doing a great job for Labour. Braverman is helping out Farage and splitting the swivel-eyed loon (as David Cameron once so charmingly put it) vote.

I think the Tories will win, as Keir Starmer is the alternative.

You’re fucking deluded.

I think the conservatives will lose. Because they have been clowns. That said, I’m not thrilled about a labour government either. I think they will win, but more by default than any great policies or anybody really inspiring.

I really wish we could get rid of both parties. Both have done and will do terrible damage.

I don’t know whether to vote. I might vote Lib Dem. I really don’t like con or lab or our political system. It’s really bad for the country.

I can understand that people are keen for change. I am. I wish there was a really big strong centre party.

I'm looking forward to watching tbh. I'm not even sure I can vote, I have an out of date passport that I think still looks like me??? Il give it a go.

@Pixiesgirl
From the Government website -

The photo on your ID must look like you. You can still use your ID even if it has expired.

So yeah, I think you’re okay.

You can also apply for a voter authority certificate

or a Postal Vote

or a Proxy Vote

Labour is a centrist party right now!

I’m pretty much 100% confident that (barring some huge game-changing scandal) the tories are going to lose.

The campaign so far has been woeful and their strategy is clearly not to win, but to lose in a slightly less humiliating fashion. They are only trying to shore up usually solid Tory voters, not chase floating voters. It’s a purely defensive strategy that is clearly not about winning.

I’m not sure that the Canada-style wipeout that some polls suggest are coming will happen, but the idea that Sunak could be Prime Minister after the election seems laughable. He cancelled all of his press events spent this weekend hiding from journalists. His own candidates and even ministers can’t hide how furious they are with him and how embarrassed they are by the campaign so far.

The question is moot! Look at Badenoch, Braverman and others openly vying for leadership. All predicated on their party losing very badly.

If the Tory Party have any brains left it will look at these candidates and find someone else. They are all tainted by being part of the most useless government ever. None of them are competent. Anyone competent has already left and got another job. What’s left are the Tories who can’t.

The real alternative is Angela Rayner who is patiently waiting in the wings and just look what she stands for especially on our nuclear deterence

Angela Rayner is deputy leader. She is in favour of retaining our nuclear deterent. This attempt to sow fear based on lies by Tories is really quite sad.

I'll add one more 9 to your 9s -Keir Starmer is 1/80 and Sunak is 16/1. It's over.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

I have some pity (not really - am dancing on the grave) they know they have lost and big and very few half-arsed attempts on here either to push back. Sunak looks like a broken man counting down the hours until he can stop the pain.

Yes I would imagine it especially hurts to lose to the Tory perception of Angela Rayner. Who has more political nous.

I m delighted at their decline; just look at the absolute dearth of talent. Who has not resigned or found a better job is their new leadership. There is little to distinguish them from Reform, they aren’t better, they can’t even rouse their right wing vote in support. They are less talented than Farage. This is an extinction level event coming, no doubt.

I think Labour will win by a decent majority but a lower margin than anticipated, and the usual suspects will hail it as a terrible loss because they performed below (some) expectations - even if it's only just below the most sanguine. Both Left and Right will combine to give Starmer a good kicking for every seat he doesn't capture, whatever the final result. And of course the usual interviews with party leaders explaining why their candidate losing their deposit was not a bad result for them at all, at all, but in fact is worse for the winner if you look at the bigger picture. No prize for that prediction, it happens every time.

I also doubt the Tories will be wiped out quite as much as many of us would love to see. Enough of the swivel-eyed persuasion will still hang around to make nuisances of themselves, no doubt.

Would be fairly happy for the Lib Dems to become the official opposition, even in their current somewhat unhinged incarnation, but not expecting it. I'm also hoping for a bit more influence from Green just to keep environmental issues on the agenda.

I hope the ghastly Farage will once again fail to get a seat, but even if he finally breaks his duck his "party" won't get more than a couple of seats. However, it would still really mess up the business of Parliament on days when the cameras are in. I can imagine him and Gorgeous George out-grandstanding each other while everyone else is trying to get a vote going. ("Party" in quotes there simply because it isn't technically a political party, rather than a comment on its quality or viability; but the latter can also be taken as read.)

Urgh. Gorgeous George and Farage. As GG would put it, two cheeks of the same backside.

frankentall · Today 01:11
Sunak is doing a great job for Labour. Braverman is helping out Farage and splitting the swivel-eyed loon (as David Cameron once so charmingly put it) vote

Accurate is a better description than charming.

the usual suspects will hail it as a terrible loss because they performed below (some) expectations

As presumably one of the “usual suspects” I just want a Labour win. How big a majority doesn’t really bother me. In fact the scale of majority suggested in some of the polls makes me distinctly uneasy, a decent opposition is needed for a healthy democracy. I’d love the LibDems to be the official opposition though.

A coalition is not a dirty word and I am always amazed when people react as if it is. We NEED far more cross party collaboration and far less short term thinking, which is what we've tended to see lately.

I think Labour will take the majority, though. Though I wonder how much complancency is going to eat away at their vote. I think there is a real risk of people thinking they've already got it sown up and so not bothering to vote.

The Brexit referrendum predicted the Remain would win and I swear that's partly what caused them to lose - because people who wanted Remain felt it was safe to stay and home and just expect it to come their way.