Thread 36 - Covid Cohort from GCSE 2020 - The Final Countdown to Results Day for Some?

[CinnamonOrangeCremeBrulee]

This is a thread for supporting all young people post GCSEs 2020, regardless of their educational setting. It is respectfully requested that all are supportive and helpful to each other. If you want to start a debate, e.g state vs private, please don't within this thread. Please also be sensitive when responding to threads about grades. It's all relative!
Some of us have been here since first thread back in yr10, some will be new. Everyone has been friendly and helpful in the past. Everyone is welcome. It is hoped this will continue.
Our DS/DD may continue down various pathways ( employment, apprenticeships, higher ed) We have decided for anyone interested they will find a thread within the Further Ed board.
Possibly a move to Parent of Adult Children Board in future? Post Results?

Previous Thread

Ooh I hope for her it is!

Sorry gang, been very hectic here, away camping at the weekend and then DH in hospital yesterday to have two stents fitted. I also have some work on (bad timing but freelance so needs must) so have been dashing about a bit and just catching up with the thread now. I will update the list in the morning after collecting Ddog from kennels! 🐶

Welcome new joiners and returners, congrats on successes and moves, hope everyone gets through the next few days ok. Urgh how will we be feeling this time next week?

Love the "shitting it" quote, I think this also applies to DS.

(Also I would like to confess a passion for brown sauce 😬)

@singingstones hope your DH is ok.
@EwwSprouts shes a superstitious one. She loves a rose quartz and others and had them down her bra in the exams! If she gets her grades I’ll be converted 😁

@singingstones my DH felt great after he had his stents in, hope yours does too. He now has quite a cocktail of daily drugs though, has a heavily used Monday to Sunday pill pot which makes him feel old!

@Benjispruce4 the universities get the results later today, so I am afraid the universities are just loving up all their offer holders, but hopefully the crystals (or DD's talent and hard work) will have done the job!

Hi all
Thanks for this wonderful thread and good luck to everyone!
DS had a lot of health challenges and missed quite a bit of sixth form. However, his exams went pretty well – a couple of issues with two papers (AQA Physics paper 2 and Edexcel Maths paper 3 – normally his strong suit but had a tired out brain freeze!) , but rest fine. He is only interested in getting his uni place, not grades – so will no doubt be refreshing UCAS Hub like a maniac on results day.
He is way better now, in all respects, and has been camping with friends, on hols with us, and doing some volunteering work. Fingers crossed!

I work at a university, and we expect Clearing to be almost like 2019 though depends on course and uni, but there is plenty of space in the sector, and I expect near misses (again: depends on courses and uni) will swing into play again as results will be nearer to 2019 than the two Covid years).

Sorry for being a nerd, but I think there has been some poor Press reporting of grading this year! I have seen some reports that claim grade boundaries will be mid point..nope. Interesting to note how SQA set their mid-point/intermediary position. They were clear they would do this to be in line with the UK as a whole. But their report for grading methodology shows this was balanced with performance and standards, along with an aggregate mid-point for grading overall. In short, the overall pass rate between A-C has gone up around 4% from 2019.. Their main stats page can bring up Excel for 2022 and 2019 (archives) across all subjects at AH and Highers and Nats, plus attainment stats. The curve ain’t much different to 2019. Worth also saying that grade boundaries are highly variable per subject. They used notional boundaries, performance and mid-point aggregate to determine (this is in their Awarding Methodology Report ) boundaries. For example, Maths Advance Higher has a round 2% more grade As than 2019 but grade boundaries were higher.

DATA HE bod is reporting that the curve is more ‘aggressive’ in terms of lowering grades than expected, while WONK HE claim it is ‘arbitrary’
Meanwhile, Ofqual worked with predicative models from 2017 (GCSES and 2019 (A Levels, alongside predictive models from 2019 (GCSES) and 2021 (TAGS A levels) and asked exam boards to model an outcome matrix on a 60:40 ration to begin looking at boundaries. What a palaver!

Hello and welcome@tryingmybest13 . Sure some people here will know what all that means, but I haven’t a clue. Could you possibly summarise in a sentence for someone really really dyscalculeic?

Welcome @Tryingmybest13.
Gosh that all sounds very complicated & I think I need to do an exam to understand all that!
I shall trust the system though 🤞

My mind has temporarily been diverted from results day following a call from DD to say her room mate in Ghana has typhoid and malaria 😱 DD has been vaccinated against everything possible and assures me she's taking the anti malarials but she does have mosquito bites. She seemed quite chilled about it and is loving her time there but I'm now firmly in stressed mode.

DS meanwhile is successfully at the airport for his flight home from Paris. He has exceeded my expectations on this one. He just has to actually get on the plane and then find a train home.

He's going to a gig in London tomorrow and his best friend leaves for college in the US on Sunday. I'm thinking maybe Monday to discuss clearing and plans B, C, D etc.

Sorry all!@Zebracat and @Cantonet

In short, SQA did not set a mid point between 2019 and 2021 to figure out the quota of grade profiles percentages at grades A and C (these are first set then the distribution across the other grades mapped in and spaced out for grade band width (these tend to be more or less the same very year unless an issue with a paper/exam) but rather a mid-point overall for passes.

This means that the curve overall (how many percent of grades are passes is up from 2019 ) BUT the amount of A grades, for example, is not a mid-point between 2019 and 2021. Some reports and inferences have assumed this would be the case. For example, there have been inferences that if 20% of students for a subject got a A in 2019 and 40% in 2021 (Teacher grades) then 30% (the mid point) would get an A in 2022.

SQA have used an overall mid-point stacked against performance data and qualitative reviews to keep standards - so it is highly variable but between 1-5% higher per subject at a A grade than 2019.

Ofqual asked English boards to predict outcomes based on old data from old cohort to see how the 2021 cohort might have done if they had sat exams (they use GCSE data) then compare with another cohort and adjust to try to begin setting a mid point and a starting range for boundaries.

Clear as mud? I know!

Sorry again! @Zebracat in a sentence, expect a slight rise from 2019 in pass rates!

Oh my goodness @Benjispruce4 this was my Dd too! What even is it with all these crystals ? She has all these different types gathering dust on her windowsill.

Welcome @tryingmybest13 fellow uni bod here (but nothing to do with undergrads) .

Interesting! I'd looked at the mid point as you described, I had suspicions from the beginning there would be some convoluted calculation that wouldn't make it simple. I'll check out the WONKHE article!

Well done on catching up @singingstones ! Can I put 'sitting it' in the next thread title I wonder ?

@CinnamonOrangeCremeBrulee Not gathering dust, absorbing energy from the sun.🙄😂
I’m getting more worried now that marks and boundaries will be harsher this year than we had expected.

Wishing your DH a speedy recovery Singing, and a much improved quality of life now the procedure’s been done.

@tryingmybest13 blimey that sounds very convoluted! I suspect most people are thinking along the lines of either lower grade boundaries midpoint 2019-2021or mid point pass rates for the same time span. This is very much how it was presented to the public I feel, certainly most students think this also. It sounds like it's not going to be as favourable as we hoped and if that's the case they are going to be many, many disappointed teenagers (and parents) out there next week. I feel even more nervous now!

@singingstones I do hope your DH is home and recovered very quickly.

@mummyinbeds 😮I hope your DD is taking those tablets religiously!

@JustHereWithMyPopcorn exactly right! The phrasing was not clear and this might be an issue. Lots of Press inferences that either the mid point meant boundaries or that if 10% of kids got a A in A level English in 2019 and 30% in 2021, then there would be a mid point of 20% this year. The ratio is set across the bell curve.

Waves to fellow uni bod, too @CinnamonOrangeCremeBrulee

Here is the DATA HE bell curve for SQA

Hi All, Sorry long time no post - crazy times with family holidays and new jobs and been in hospital.

DD has had a lovely summer - formal/prom happened, European mini break with her friends and lovely Festival for long weekend with another set of friends plus lots of pubs, picnics etc

With the other DDs have planned different scenarios and then when outcome is not what is expected there's a plan that cuts through the emotions.

For example

Plan A - grades for top choice and you want to go
Plan B - grades for 2nd choice and happy to go
Plan C- retake and dont go to second choice
Plan D - go for a difference degree at 1st choice if offered
Plan E - give up subject and choose another and look at clearing

Thinking though what can happen and then logically working out what you would do is super helpful.Well was with the boys ...

We can't discuss A level results as she gets very upset (COVID affected her for 4/11exams) and she is very very hard on herself. Having not been fussed about uni she really wants Durham but she thinks she's blown it because of the covid illness. Seems super hard as she worked hard for this and is bright .....easier with my DS2 had not worked ....

Its so hard .......

UCAS tends to come out before they get grades online or in person .......make sure you can log on for your child on UCAS ....incase they come down with appendicitis - happened to my friends son 5 years ago and was a nightmare

Having day off as holiday .....3rd time and it does not get easier ......DH joining me this year for 1st time ........he knows not what this day is like.

Trying to reassure myself as DD’s teachers used 2019 grade boundaries and marking strategy to mark their mocks and last assessments and she did well.😬

@tryingmybest13 Thank you for the information, I think it has all been quite misleading. General press is about 'generous grading' but it really doesn't 'generous' in the scheme of the last few years. I am very concerned at our DC being compared to previous years, when they have not been marked as generously but have had the same challenges.

To add to this, a friend knows a maths A level marker and he said the standard of answers was poor this year.

I am quite concerned about next week.

Welcome @tryingmybest13 by the way

@272Newnames I could not agree more. The whole thing could have been less overcooked, clearer and more generous. Our DCs have had major disruption since 2020, and it will be so variable across students, regions and schools that this half-baked and rather random way of squishing grades is rubbish. Interesting re Maths - no wonder! Poor kids. I have no idea how they got through those exams - relentless. And some of the Boards errors are unacceptable. Grr.

My word, that data shows they've been really harsh! I'm genuinely shocked at that.

This cohort have missed at least 2/5ths of the school attendance (more for those who got Covid or who sat next to people with covid), on top of that they've had universities asking for higher grades to enter courses due to the last two years getting such mad grades and looks like they are about to be shafted again - and have been for the Scottish students!

Thank you for this information @tryingmybest13 sorry for not saying that earlier, I was a bit blindsided.