Corona Cohort: Statements Scripted, Grades Predicted

[Monkey2001]

This is a thread for supporting all young people post GCSEs 2020, regardless of their educational setting. It is respectfully requested that all are supportive and helpful to each other. If you want to start a debate, e.g state vs private, please don't within this thread. Please also be sensitive when responding to threads about grades.

Some of us have been here since first thread back in yr10, some will be new. Everyone has been friendly and helpful in the past. Everyone is welcome. It is hoped this will continue.

From OrangeCinnamonCocktail:

Our DS/DD may go down various paths (such as employment, apprenticeships, higher ed) We have decided for anyone interested they will most likely find us within the Further Ed board.

Previous thread - www.mumsnet.com/Talk/further_education/4339233-Thread-19-Corona-Cohort-Enrolling-on-Year-13-hopefully-NOT-unlucky-for-some?pg=1

I don't think they can increase the offer requirements unless they have warned that they might. For Medicine, Plymouth decided after applications were in to only shortlist people predicted an A* in a science subject, but yh the offers were AAA. They had covered themselves in their guidance, but it was unexpected.

I think it is covered with the phrase 'typical entry requirements'. Usually, this in interpreted as meaning they can offer lower...maybe not now.

A few universities express offers as eg AAB- BBB.

@Monkey2001 I think part of the confusion is the interplay words ‘offers’ & ‘grade requirements’. Anyway, I sincerely hope exams go ahead,I know DS desperately wants to sit his exams and feel he earned them.

On another note, does anyone know where the thread for those with dc in their 3rd Yr (2019 cohort) of uni has gone? I was following that for ds1 and can’t find it anywhere. I know there’s a few of us on that thread on here as well.

I would much rather they made 700 AAA than 460 AAA.*
Not sure I agree. I think upping the offer to include an A* would deter some and they may be the less confident not the less able.

120 of 300 miss the grades req or 45 of 225 miss the grades.
Yes it would more uncomfortable for applicants who do not receive an offer but it would be better for those who become offer holders. Increased odds of acceptance and less risk of upset on results day. If you don't receive an offer from anywhere (as it's medicine) there is also more time to reflect and come up with a plan B than panic in August.

@Shimy If it’s the same one I am on it's currently 5th from the top of the Higher Ed page. I haven’t been on it lately as ds1 is on a placement year

@decorate thanks I’ll have a look. DS is also on placement Infact that’s why I was looking for the thread to connect with others who might be on placement as well. How’s he getting on?

@Monkey2001 I just don’t quite understand what you mean when you say “
But it is still possible that there will be no exams and there will be teacher assessment, so I actually think the offer rate will decrease at the ones which over recruited this year, which is why I think that this year you need more than one aspirational choice - it is likely that there will be fewer aspirational offers than usual.” So you think because there will be fewer offers from ‘top’ unis they should use more choices for aspirational unis to try to get one such offer? But isn’t that risky if 40% don’t meet their predictions?
I’m trying to make sense of this all…!

I suppose if the focus is on getting into the best uni possible with the higher grade expectations then the next rank down of unis will be a safer insurance choice and we can leave the traditional insurance choices safe in the knowledge a place can be picked up there in clearing if necessary?

@Shimy Ok so far, seems happy enough though I don’t know that he is really getting his teeth into anything yet. His line manager seems always too busy to talk to him or give him a decent piece of work to do. Hopefully it will change gradually as he learns more & becomes more useful! He is in a student house due to the lateness of getting the placement. Was on his own for the first few weeks but they are all back now.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/higher_education/4273836-University-2019-20-intake-vacations-vaccinations-va-va-voom-restored-and-virtually-into-their-third-year

This one shimy

I fell off...

At the risk of confusing matters even more, I’ve got a question
As I understand it, grades are to be pegged back to a mid point between 2019 and 2021- determined by the boards. Annual public exams are graded on a curve with a set percentage of ‘top grades’ awarded to ensure fairness for each cohort.
Is it the A grade that dictates this with the A star being an outlier?

Don’t know proggy.

So totally hypothetically, if unis all believed as of say 1 November that there would in fact be no exams this year, what effect would that have on offers? They would be looking at TAGs and a situation very like last year ie inflated grades.

So assuming they had not already raised their standard offer, it would be too late for the leading or so-called ‘elite’ (non oxbridge) unis to do that (as many would already have applied), and they would have to make many fewer offers as @Monkey2001 says. But the next rung down from them ie much of the Russell group, Bath, Loughborough etc however would be trying to protect their usual cohort and so would be making more offers, no? Or making cleverer offers - for eg on AAB courses offering ‘AAB but BBB if firm’, in the hope of capturing as many as possible, including some who might eventually get AAA or better on TAGs.

The traditional insurance unis or lower tier will be trying to catch some with unconditional or reduced offer if firm too, but ultimately will be resigned to picking up what they can in clearing or selling themselves to local students etc. Gross generalisation of course.

So one might say that given the problems with overcrowding etc at ‘elite’ unis this year, which make their offering look much less attractive to the student (accommodation 40m away in a different town, sharing rooms, inadequate face to face etc), that one should be encouraging our kids to focus applications on the high quality next tier down eg Birmingham, Manchester, Southampton, Bath - firm the one they like best at a good reduced offer, book up accommodation and relax? No?

@EwwSprouts I guess it depends on whether you think more people should have the opportunity to get their top choices if they can, or whether you would prefer to protect a smaller number from a horrible results day.

There is no right answer, but I think if you ultimately want the most academically able applicants, in 2019 17.9% got AAA or better, in 2021 24.5% got A*AA or better. Unless 2021 students were 50% better than 2019, 2 equal students would have got different grades, and therefore had different opportunities in the two years. The system is supposed to be fair across years.

The most competitive university places are finite and exam results have been the way people accessed the most competitive ones. I don't necessarily think it is the best way, but that is what it is supposed to be.

@Delphigirl I mean that IF in 2019 Durham made 600 offers for 180 places, and they think TAGs might be used, they might only make 400 offers for 180 places for 2022. If a DC is trying to decide whether to choose Durham or Warwick as their aspirational choice, I think I would say go for both because the chances of getting an offer from either of them is lower than usual. Yes, as you said, I think the lower ranked universities will be worried that they are missing out on their usual strongest candidates.

I wouldn't say that Manchester, Bath, Southampton, Birmingham were lower tier, Russell Group will not struggle for numbers.

Thanks @Monkey2001 that makes sense.
Of course if Durham made offers fo 600 for 180 this year they won’t be making offers to 400 for 180 places but more like 266 for 120 places as there are so many deferrals… so it’s even worse really isn’t it…

So the next rung down will have the same concerns about over offering as the top then you mean? Yes I can see that, if there are so few offers coming from the top.

Dammit it is hard for this cohort.

@Monkey2001 do you know how the curve is created - and subsequently grades- after exams?
I’ve asked this as looking at the link you shared the main ‘grade inflation’ appeared to be at the A star.

Unless 2021 students were 50% better than 2019, 2 equal students would have got different grades, and therefore had different opportunities in the two years. The system is supposed to be fair across years.
I'm getting confused now. The plan is to pull down grades for next summer so isn't our year going to be partway another 2019 ? I'm in favour of as many students having the opportunity to get their top choice and that's at the point of application. Over offering just seems to have caused a lot of upset and chaos this last couple of summers.

Brain Overload.
Why is all of this so complicated?

I think it will work itself out however the unis offer. If they miscalculate and offer too high or too few there will be more places available post results. So I do think that the top 5% or whatever will still find their way to the most competitive courses, next 20% to RG or whatever the usual split is. The only fly in the ointment for me is that they are competing with 2021 inflated grades. But I hope the universities will find a way to take that into account when comparing grades from both years.

It is complicated isn’t it and I think subject comes into play hugely too plus individual DC’s preference eg. For DS London is an absolute no go,

We have decided on a strategy. He’s put in for 3 now in the hope of an early offer from one which was in clearing night before results this year. If that happens he will be more aspirational with remaining 2, depending on TMUA results.

@ProggyMat in a normal year they look at "Prior Attainment" and use that to adjust the target numbers for each grade - so a more able year, based on Y7 data will get slightly better grades.

My understanding is that when the results are in, they overlay the agreed grade percentages on the actual results and set the grade boundaries. Eg, if they have decided that 7% of the cohort will get A* and that falls on a score of 82%, 82% becomes the grade boundary. That is why the grade boundaries move more than the number of people getting a particular grade in a normal year.

In terms of which grades are changing, they all shifted up, so for Biology in 2019 45% got A, A or B, but in 2021 45% got A% or A. This little graphic might clarify or might just make it more confusing!

@Monkey2001 so you’re saying in ‘normal’ times the curve of grades at A level is determined by prior attainment at entrance in Yr7, which would be Yr6 SATs ?
Rather than GCSE?
I thought the grade boundaries were set in order to ensure no matter how ‘difficult’ or ‘easy’ the papers were- which would take into consideration ‘more’ able or ‘less’ able annual cohorts, the ‘same’ amount of students would achieve the ‘same’ grades, each year.
Your graphic makes perfect sense to me.

For those that don’t read across the boards there is a thread in HE on applying for Uni with ‘not quite’ the grades required.

@ProggyMat I think that the Y7 data is the only unmoderated whole cohort (or most of cohort) data they have. For our lot the cohort GCSE results mean nothing and I think normal GCSEs use the Y7 data, so effectively if the A levels use the GCSEs, they are using data based on Y7. All I know is that they IS a prior attainment adjustment at a cohort level for public exams.