Corona Cohort: Statements Scripted, Grades Predicted

[Monkey2001]

This is a thread for supporting all young people post GCSEs 2020, regardless of their educational setting. It is respectfully requested that all are supportive and helpful to each other. If you want to start a debate, e.g state vs private, please don't within this thread. Please also be sensitive when responding to threads about grades.

Some of us have been here since first thread back in yr10, some will be new. Everyone has been friendly and helpful in the past. Everyone is welcome. It is hoped this will continue.

From OrangeCinnamonCocktail:

Our DS/DD may go down various paths (such as employment, apprenticeships, higher ed) We have decided for anyone interested they will most likely find us within the Further Ed board.

Previous thread - www.mumsnet.com/Talk/further_education/4339233-Thread-19-Corona-Cohort-Enrolling-on-Year-13-hopefully-NOT-unlucky-for-some?pg=1

@shimy I assume the universities who have changed their entry requirements will feel that they have made the right call. They can make more offers than they could have if they stuck with the old entry requirements. Surely more offers with higher grades is better than giving very few people the opportunity to meet an offer.

@Monkey2001 - is this the link you mean?
www.gov.uk/government/publications/analysis-of-results-a-levels-summer-2021/summer-2021-results-analysis-and-quality-assurance-a-level

My message above tagged @Monkey2001 but I think it was possibly @Delphigirl or @OrangeCinnamonCocktail who asked? If not, just ignore!

[quote Horace123]@Monkey2001 - is this the link you mean?
www.gov.uk/government/publications/analysis-of-results-a-levels-summer-2021/summer-2021-results-analysis-and-quality-assurance-a-level[/quote]
It was @Delphigirl who asked, but I assumed she was looking for subject level data. You can search for "results statistics AQA 2021", or any board. There is someone who brings it all together here: www.bstubbs.co.uk/a-lev.htm#P

I had a quick look at the link you shared and was a bit shocked by the increase in the number of people getting all 9s at GCSE across the board, but particularly from independent schools - 2019-0.9%, 2020-2.8%, 2021- 4.4%!!! State selective went up from 0.9% to 3.2%. Medicine entry is likely to be very odd next year as lots of them score GCSEs.

I will do some analysis on the link I shared, but some of the interesting ones for A* grades:

Music - 2019 - 4.5%, 2021 - 23.7%
F. Maths - 2019 - 24.7%, 2021 - 49.6%
Biology - 2019 - 7%, 2021 - 18.6%

Ooh @Monkey2001 that’s the one thanks and thanks to @horace too, that also looks useful. Will study!

Ok that gives DS a 61.5% chance of getting A*~B in chemistry and Geography and 57% chance in Biology. I can live with that.

Well the car is packed with coats and spare shoes for tomorrow's trip to Sussex as the forecast is wet. My overnight bag is packed...I gave Ds a bag this morning and suggested a spare set of clothes incase we get wet, the bag is still where I put it. I've printed out the times of the talks. Suggested he look but he didn't do that either. He will have plenty of time on the way. He might pack before we go. When he worked in the summer, we had to leave at 7.45am he would say "don't speak to me in the morning, I'm too tired to listen" so we'd drive in silence. So I'm not sure what he will be like tomorrow leaving at 530am.

Or for A* and A tge percentage getting them this year will be 34.6 Biology, 38.85 Chemistry and 32.8 Geography
So if he is in the top 1/3 he will be very happy

My subject in normal times gets 1.2 % A*.....

@Nard75 it’s been brought to my attention that despite best efforts I am still getting the test name wrong, it’s TMUA isn’t it 😀

DS was saying TMUA is all multiple choice and MAT is for half then written for the other bit.

@Volterra DS1 has been practicing some papers at home and having looked at one of the TMUA papers it looks like a foreign language to me. The MAT is more difficult so I can understand why he is saying he just wants to concentrate on one of the admission tests and not both.

Surely more offers with higher grades is better than giving very few people the opportunity to meet an offer.

How do you know they will make more offers?

@Shimy

Surely more offers with higher grades is better than giving very few people the opportunity to meet an offer.

How do you know they will make more offers?

Seems obvious that if you make AAA offers and 30% of candidates get AAA, you need to keep the number of offers down as so many candidates will meet the offer conditions. If you offer A*AA, fewer candidates will meet the offer conditions, so you can make more offers.

I see what you mean now. I was thinking about the number of spaces they have per course and wondering why they would give more offers than needed just because they raised entry req. of course I get what you’re saying now and it makes perfect sense.
It’s been a long day!

Sorry @Shimy, when I said "seems obvious" o meant "seems logical". I may not be right, but I am sure that if they had kept offer same, they would not have given out as many offers as they could not have the 2021 numbers again.

I’ve been working on assumption they will keep yje offers high as in insurance against any last minute change of plan Nad may decide to throw at us. It’s the only way they can retain a semblance of control over things and I guess they will be wary after what has happened the last couple of years.

@Monkey2001 No offence taken. Sometimes tone comes across differently in posts than intended. I thought I understood what you meant initially but I’m still just confused. I thought they over offered this yr (hence accomodation probs etc) because of grade inflation v lower entry requirements (pre pandemic entry requirements) and so have upped entry requirements for 2022 so they could reduce offers rather than increase? Oh well, I’m getting more tangled up the more I try to understand. We’ll see what 2022 brings.

I have looked through all the unis that DD is interested in and luckily none of them have raised the grades for Biology.

@Shimy my interpretation is:

Usually 40% of applicants do not achieve their predicted UCAS grades

A university might make 600 offers for a course with 180 places on the basis that 300 (50%) select other choices and 40%, ie 120 of the 300 who firm them do not achieve the grades.

In 2021 the vast majority of offer holders got the grades, so they had far too many students.

This year, one way of managing it is to still make 600 offers but to increase the grade requirements so that you still get 40% missing the grades.

Or you could keep the offer the same and accept that only 20% should miss the grades and therefore make fewer offers, so the stats might be - 450 offers, 225 acceptances, 45 miss grades, 180 start course.

But it is still possible that there will be no exams and there will be teacher assessment, so I actually think the offer rate will decrease at the ones which over recruited this year, which is why I think that this year you need more than one aspirational choice - it is likely that there will be fewer aspirational offers than usual.

I’ve looked at DDs choices and the only one that I think may have increased entrance requirements is Exeter. AAA from AAB but I can’t be sure
@Monkey2001 are you saying that courses with AAA entrance requirements should make offers of A star AA in order to make more offers?

Yes @ProggyMat. If they are usually targeting the top x% of exam performers, I think they should change their grades to fit what the top x% is expected to get, and then be flexible on results day if possible.

I think the worst situation would be if universities all reduce offers and the applicants don't get the chance to go to their top choices.

At the Newcastle medicine talk they said they expected to make around 460 offers this year - they usually make around 700. I would much rather they made 700 A*AA than 460 AAA. At least 10% more applicants and 34% fewer offers is not comfortable for applicants!

Are the allowed to offer at higher than the stated entrance grade requirements?

Good question Proggy. Mot of the courses DS is interested in want AAB. How do you choose/avoid if some might offer at AAA especially if picking an insurance.

@ProggyMat

Are the allowed to offer at higher than the stated entrance grade requirements?

I don't think they ever do, although technically they can. People would juts reject their offer!.