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Brexit

Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

510 replies

LouiseCollins28 · 30/10/2025 22:14

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
.
There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

OP posts:
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GlobeTrotter2000 · 01/12/2025 17:01

@MaybeNotBob

Almost 50% of exports go to the EU

As per the TCA, services are not subject to the regulatory requirements as applied to goods. At the end of 2024, export of services to the EU had increased by 19% in real terms compared to 2019. Export of goods has declined by a similar % as the UK moves more towards being a service based economy.

Overall exports have increased since Brexit as a 19% increase on 81% of GDP (services) more than offsets a 19% decline in the remaining 19% of GDP (farming, goods).

@DuncinToffee

The question on the ballot was a choice between yes or no to preserve fairness. Not possible to have been any other way.

DuncinToffee · 01/12/2025 17:08

That's what I said Globe, you didn't vote for a specific kind of Brexit.

You can't claim 'that is not the Brexit I voted for'

MaybeNotBob · 01/12/2025 17:43

Funny how "we're moving to a services based economy" - because idiots have cut off our biggest and closest and easiest and cheapest market for all other kinds of exports...

GlobeTrotter2000 · 02/12/2025 09:40

@DuncinToffee

It’s not possible to know why people voted to leave or remain. However, I would say that’s it’s highly unlikely they all voted for the same reason. Hence some will say, it’s not the Brexit we voted for.

As you have pointed out, the question on the ballot paper was leave of remain. The same question was presented to MPs on 29 March 2017. To be impartial, the question had to be an even balance between leave and remain.

As per article 50, discussions on deals could not commence until Article 50 had been triggered. Hence, it was impossible to know in advance of the 2016 referendum, or the HOC vote in 2017, what the outcome of negotiations would be.

@MaybeNotBob

The shift from manufacturing to services began under the Thatcher era when she took office in 1979. Over forty years before the UK left the EU.

DuncinToffee · 02/12/2025 09:48

The predictions were too optimistic as it turns out.

GlobeTrotter2000 · 02/12/2025 10:11

@DuncinToffee

The predictions were too optimistic as it turns out.

Negotiators at the time on both sides sadly agreed a half in and half out deal. This has been costly for exporters of goods on both sides of the channel.

Also, there have been several worldwide events since 2020 which have diverted the attention of governments around the world.

DuncinToffee · 02/12/2025 10:13

Brexit is still a disaster no matter how you want to phrase it Globe.

GlobeTrotter2000 · 02/12/2025 10:38

@DuncinToffee

Brexit is still a disaster no matter how you want to phrase it Globe

For some, maybe. However, based on the most accurate polls of all, general elections, I would say the majority does not think it’s been a disaster.

Farage has increased his support by a factor of seven between 2017 and 2024. Some are forecasting he will be the next PM.

DuncinToffee · 02/12/2025 10:47

There you go, prime example of the disaster Brexit is.

What are the 'most accurate polls'?

GlobeTrotter2000 · 02/12/2025 11:15

@DuncinToffee

There you go, prime example of the disaster Brexit is

I did not give any examples, but agree that some will be worse off.

What are the 'most accurate polls'?

General elections. The entire electorate (approx 48 million) are invited to vote.

MaybeNotBob · 02/12/2025 11:33

But, they're not a one issue poll, are they?

Much as you seem to think they are, they're not. So, as usual, your argument is stupid.

DuncinToffee · 02/12/2025 12:53

No polls then and yes there are plenty of people who admire Farage, racism and Russia links are easily brushed aside by them.

GlobeTrotter2000 · 02/12/2025 15:51

@MaybeNotBob

But, they're not a one issue poll, are they?

Neither was Brexit. Take a look at the booklet sent out by remain campaign before the referendum. It lists several subjects that may change if the UK left the EU.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f2924e5274a2e87db429a/EU_referendum_leaflet_large_print.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f2924e5274a2e87db429a/EU_referendum_leaflet_large_print.pdf

MaybeNotBob · 02/12/2025 17:02

Yet more arrant nonsense.

It clearly was a single issue, as it was Leave or Remain. People weren't voting for a bit of Leave and a bit of Remain, there were literally no shades of grey between. More stupid "arguments"...

Talkinpeace · 02/12/2025 18:22

Brexit was so great that Globe stays out of the UK for most of the year.
Nuff said.

GlobeTrotter2000 · 03/12/2025 09:30

@MaybeNotBob

The question on the ballot paper was leave or remain. To maintain fairness and equal balance, it could not be anything else.

The booklet sent to each household referred to many areas that may be impacted by a vote to leave. The treasury report also made reference to subjects such as:

Employment
Growth
Investment
Property values

@Talkinpeace

I have spent most of my time outside the UK since 1988. That’s 32 years before Brexit.

Talkinpeace · 06/12/2025 19:29

@GlobeTrotter2000
"I have spent most of my time outside the UK since 1988. That’s 32 years before Brexit."
In that case
OFDOD
as you and your AI programmer have NO IDEA what is really going on here.

TTFN

MaybeNotBob · 06/12/2025 21:42

“The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” - Garry Kasparov

Talkinpeace · 08/12/2025 15:01

Brexit Impact - Franchi Seeds post on Facebook ...

New 2026 Seeds of Italy Catalogue - https://mailchi.mp/.../new-2026-seeds-of-italy-catalogue...

Follower comment : Nice! How are you doing with the current state of the EU law, any concerns?

Reply by Franchi : £1,000 worth of seeds seized this week. £200 worth of tomato seed incinerated last week. Up to £12,600 woth of tomato seed destroyed at the UK border this year, the whole of UK horti on its knees. Millions of £££'s of plants, trees and seeds destroyed this year, delays, seizures... total disaster. We have 3 tomato varieties and 1 chilli out of 70!

New 2026 Seeds of Italy Catalogue / Asparagus crowns / Unique ingredients and gifts

https://mailchi.mp/5249621651f0/new-2026-seeds-of-italy-catalogue-preview-pistacchio-cream-6759230?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExUU1IbG41RTdQak9oMFlPOXNydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR56qlMXk8Vi9AndRhS1cWvkLTdKVqUu25lrcLZ346snOQE_z7RxAGVcp-Hrug_aem_PRAQsaF33M5YGPq9RXe9xA

Clavinova · 10/12/2025 21:15

Talkinpeace · 08/12/2025 15:01

Brexit Impact - Franchi Seeds post on Facebook ...

New 2026 Seeds of Italy Catalogue - https://mailchi.mp/.../new-2026-seeds-of-italy-catalogue...

Follower comment : Nice! How are you doing with the current state of the EU law, any concerns?

Reply by Franchi : £1,000 worth of seeds seized this week. £200 worth of tomato seed incinerated last week. Up to £12,600 woth of tomato seed destroyed at the UK border this year, the whole of UK horti on its knees. Millions of £££'s of plants, trees and seeds destroyed this year, delays, seizures... total disaster. We have 3 tomato varieties and 1 chilli out of 70!

Article about tomato and pepper seeds here - The British Tomato Growers' Association and the National Farmers' Union stated as supporting the stricter import tests. Franchi Seeds/Seeds of Italy said they failed on several potato spindle viroid tests mentioned below (importing to the UK);

Oct 2025
The Ministry of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has confirmed that Great Britain will maintain the quarantine pest status (QP) of tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV). The decision follows a policy review and consultation with industry stakeholders.

ToBRFV, first observed in Israel in 2014, has since spread across Asia, Africa, Europe, North and South America, and Australia. In Great Britain, 14 outbreaks have been recorded since 2019, nine of which have been eradicated. Eradication measures are still ongoing at five sites.

The policy review concluded that current regulations should remain in place, with a further review to be held if the virus becomes widespread in Great Britain, resistant varieties become dominant, or seed interceptions fall to marginal levels.

The European Union reclassified ToBRFV as a regulated non-quarantine pest (RNQP) from January 2025. However, Defra stated that Great Britain remains in a different position to the EU, as outbreaks are limited and eradication continues to be feasible.

During the consultation period between March and June 2025, four responses were received. The British Tomato Growers' Association and the National Farmers' Union supported retaining ToBRFV as a quarantine pest. They stressed that only about 44% of commercial tomato crops in Great Britain are resistant cultivars.

Euroseeds and Rijk Zwaan opposed the decision, citing costs to seed suppliers and growers, difficulties with eradication, and misalignment with the EU approach. Their concerns included multiple import requirements, seed testing sensitivity, and delays at borders. They also highlighted that outbreaks in Great Britain have only occurred in tomato production, not in pepper crops.

Defra responded that records of impacts in pepper crops exist in other countries, such as Italy and Mexico, justifying continued regulation. Exceptions remain for resistant varieties, provided importers supply evidence.

On seed testing, Defra noted that both field inspections and laboratory testing are necessary, as each method alone may miss low-level or latent infections. In 2024,18 interceptions of tomato and pepper seed were recorded, including detections of potato spindle tuber viroid.

While acknowledging the burden on seed companies, Defra said import testing remains essential to protect production. It confirmed that requirements may be reviewed in the future, including whether testing 100% of imported tomato and pepper seed remains proportionate.

The ministry added that ongoing surveillance, strict import controls, and eradication of outbreaks remain central to managing ToBRFV in Great Britain.

https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9771445/great-britain-keeps-quarantine-rules-for-tobrfv/

Clavinova · 10/12/2025 21:24

DuncinToffee · 14/11/2025 15:41

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

The NBER paper in your link is listed as a Working Paper so not peer- reviewed.

GlobeTrotter2000 · 11/12/2025 17:01

@Clavinova

The NBER paper in your link is listed as a Working Paper so not peer- reviewed.

Exactly. Conveniently released before the budget on 26 November 2025 to:

Justify the tax rises that Labour promised in their manifesto would not happen.

Blame Brexit in an attempt to smear Farage as he is riding high in the polls.

DuncinToffee · 11/12/2025 17:29

Oh that's funny 😂

The tab 'working papers' explains it all