Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

Titanic success

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/news/brexit/new-boris-johnsons-brexit-titanic-success-was-half-right/

I refer back to the comments made regards the DMP report. Simulations based on estimated data taken from a sample of 30,000 businesses (0.5% from a total of 5.6 million) in the UK cannot be extrapolated to prove what the remaining 99.5% have experienced.

Data collected by the ONS demonstrated that unemployment had declined from 2015 to Q4 2024. However, the NBER estimates that employment has fallen by 3% to 4% which is the opposite of the actual measured data.

Which data would you trust most, actual data that’s been measured, or data that has been estimated from 0.5% of the UK? Actual is the answer.

For example, there are approximately 48 million registered voters in the UK. If the party appointed to govern was based on a poll of 240,000, would the remaining 47.76 million voters accept? No, is the answer.

Now go back to the 2016 referendum. Remain supporters stated that a difference of 1.3 million votes was not enough to prove there was a majority, but are happy to say that a sample of 30,000 is enough to determine what has happened to the entire UK.

Sorry, I forgot.

Don't blame Brexit.

All is fine

Shame Brexit didn't do what it said on the tin and made the UK better off.

Otto English
‪@ottoenglish.bsky.social‬
Over at the Daily Telegraph, they're scratching their heads as to why the former mining and steel producinv city of Gliwice in Poland is now 45% more prosperous than Darlington... and why it has new shiny infrastructure... without mentioning EU funds for urban and regional development...

@MaybeNotBob

Poland being able to sell coal at £22/ton, compared to UK’s domestic cost of £44/ton, was one of the reasons Mrs Thatcher closed the coal mines in the 1980s after defeat of the NUM in 1985. An event that occurred 40 years ago.

So, what’s the point of comparing coal production in Poland today to coal production in the UK which ended 40 years ago?

Similar story for steel production in the UK. Sharp declines from 1985 onwards. UK were unable to compete with cheaper suppliers from China and Mrs Thatcher closed heavy industries to concentrate on services.

As for shiny infrastructure in Poland, there’s only one thing to say:

It would never have been possible if they had not been given vast sums of money for which they have no obligation to repays.

For example, if the richest person in the world gifted all their wealth to myself, I would become the richest person in the world instead. However, that has not happened. So, if I want to be the richest person in the world, I will have to earn it myself, as opposed to receiving for free.

@DuncinToffee

Shame Brexit didn't do what it said on the tin and made the UK better off.

You may not be better off, but that doesn’t prove that nobody is better off.

We have already established that some people indeed have profited from Brexit, like some people profited from Covid or the war in Ukraine.

Indeed, and it doesn't make them good people...

There's a couple of acquaintances of mine who made an absolute killing out of Brexit - by patriotically betting against the pound at the referendum.

Not amongst my favourite people...

The numbers keep going up.

Not that it matters because Global's alright mate...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-tax-rachel-reeves-budget-b2871536.html

If, as alleged, the UK is shrinking due to Brexit, how do you explain that Germany remains the only EU member to have a larger economy than the UK? Why have the economies of the other 26 EU members not overtaken the UK?

A question that has been asked before, but never answered.

As for the NBER analysis, I will make the same comment as before. A sample of 0.5% of all UK businesses can’t be extrapolated to reflect the other 99.5%.

That their analysis estimates that employment has decreased, when at the same time measured data proves that unemployment decreased from 2015 to Q4 2024, is proof their forecast models are inaccurate.

Labour stood on a manifesto of not joining either the CU or SM. However, now they are being hammered and have had the Rayner and Reeves scandals, they seek to divert attention by blaming Brexit because it’s; convenient, easy and appeals to posters on forums such as this.

As for gambling on exchange rates, that has happened since time began. Some win and some lose. Just like the stock market.

Why is that so important to you?

@MaybeNotBob

Why is that so important to you?

You need to be more precise as more than one point raised in last post.

Frankly, I don't bother reading beyond the first point, it's never worth the effort...

Wait, what, the DT

Time to admit the truth: Brexit has been an unmitigated economic failure

Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study

https://archive.ph/X9Wpb

And from yesterday the Times

We Brexiteers must acknowledge the costs of leaving Europe
new
Breaking free from the EU has undoubtedly deepened the UK’s malaise, and it’s no use denying it

https://archive.ph/wdhs5

@DuncinToffee

Again, you are relying on the NBER. That their forecast models are flawed is demonstrated by comparison to actual measured data.

Measured data collected by the ONS from 2015 to Q4 2024 proved that unemployment declined. However, NBER estimated that over the same 10 year period employment had decreased between 3% and 4% which is the opposite of what actually happened.

So, which is more accurate:

Measured data collected from the entire country, or simulations based on estimated data from small samples?

Funny how you always wang on about unemployment figures.

I don't imagine it would be because every single other metric shows that things have got hideously worse...

@MaybeNotBob

Look at G7 growth figures too if you wish. Or immigration? Or debt to GDP ratios?

Point is, NBER published a report in November 2025 that estimated, based on small samples, that over a 10 year period employment had declined even though previously measured and publicly available data proved the opposite!

So, their report has no credibility whatsoever.

Wow! Even the Brexitgraph is admitting it's been a disaster...

They also say that Brexit was never about the economy but about sovereignty, immigration and taking back control.

And how has that worked out for them?...

Why anyone would have confidence in a study that contradicts publicly available data, I don’t know. I guess those that produced the NBER report never looked at the ONS data that has been measured as opposed to estimated.

For me,

Brexit was about:

Being able to look elsewhere for trade without needing approval from Brussels.

Logic was that UK exports to EU were shrinking as a percentage of all exports. Also, EU is 15% of the global economy which means the remaining 85% is outside the EU.

Based on the fact that US tariffs applied to imports from the UK are half that applied to EU imports, it was correct decision. Almost a quarter of all UK exports are to the US.

Brexit was not about:

UK severing all ties with the EU.

The TCA has been excellent for the service sector. Since Brexit, the value of service exports has increased from 339 billion and 72% of employment to 538 billion and 83% of employment.

Nobody defined Brexit as anything.

Brexit was about exiting the EU and that is what happened.

It was a simple Yes or No question.

Based on the fact that US tariffs applied to imports from the UK are half that applied to EU imports, it was correct decision. Almost a quarter of all UK exports are to the US.

And that's your version of logic? Almost 50% of exports go to the EU, and you've made that far more expensive than a few tariffs applied by an orange idiot.

Brexiteer logic I guess...