Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
.
There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

@pointythings
@MaybeNotBob

Measured data is more accurate than estimated data. That you have not responded to the fact that actual unemployment data is the opposite to that estimated by DWP is noted.

The so called experts estimated that a vote to leave, before anything happened, would result in the loss of between 500,000 and 800,000 jobs. Did not happen.

check out:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors#:~:text=The%20Bank%20of%20England's%20chief,impact%20of%20the%20Brexit%20vote.

2017

Dear Trotter, I really can't take a word you say seriously. You don't know what 'painting roundabouts ' means in the light of events in the UK. I am now convinced you are an AI. And not a very good one.

I know, right? 😂

Yes, survey after survey shows the immense harm done by Brexit, but because unemployment didn't go too badly in 2017 all is fine...

The article highlights that economists have not been able to accurately forecast events such as the 2008 crash nor the immediate impact of Brexit. So, based on their previous record, what makes anyone believe what they are saying now is accurate?

Not related to Brexit, but other examples of estimates being nowhere close to actuals are:

HS2. Initial estimate was £20 billion. Now it’s thought to be in excess of £100 billion. A factor of 5 increase,

Edinburgh tram system. Initial estimate was £375 million for 20 miles. Actual was over £1 billion for less than 9 miles.

COVID. If someone died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID, their death was deemed to be caused by COVID regardless of any existing medical conditions they had before COVID appeared.

So, I am not convinced anyone in government departments are capable of making reliable estimates.

The DWP report claimed to have examined a decade’s worth of data, but their estimates of employment has reduced by 3% to 4% does not match the actual data collected by the ONS. From 2015 to Q4 2024 there had been a decline in unemployment as measured by the ONS.

So, if the models used by economists, DWP, etc., to make forecasts are accurate, why are they wrong so often?

So the fact that it has turned out to be TWICE AS BAD as they forecast, means that it's actually good?

Wow! That is some serious mental(!) gymnastics!

Well it could have been thrice as bad.....

They didn't put that on the side of a bus

@MaybeNotBob

So the fact that it has turned out to be TWICE AS BAD as they forecast

The DWP report was based on simulations using estimated data and 2500 replies per month to questionnaire from a sample of 48,000 businesses (less than 0.5% of all businesses in the UK) as opposed to actual data.

No way can the view expressed by 0.5% of businesses in the UK be extrapolated to reflect 100% of businesses.

Feel free to share articles that state Brexit has not caused damage to the UK economy,

Oh, but don't forget that unemployment was slightly better than expected in 2017, so all is well...

@MaybeNotBob

Oh, but don't forget that unemployment was slightly better than expected in 2017, so all is well...

No such statement was made. The measured ONS data proved there was a decline in unemployment from 2015 to Q4 2024. The DMP report of the Bank of England estimated that employment had decreased by 3% to 4% which is the opposite to the actual data measured over the same 10 years period.

However, since Labour made it more expensive for employers to employ people, unemployment has surpassed 5%. The highest level in a decade.

@DuncinToffee

Remember what you said previously, do your own research. The burden of proof is upon the one that points the finger. No such t as the burden of disproving.

Although unemployment in the UK is at its highest level in 10 years, at 5%, it’s lower than France at 7.5% and Spain at 15%. The Eurozone average is 6.3%.

The only EU member that has a larger economy than the UK is Germany. Exactly the same as before the UK left the EU.

UK has lower immigration than the EU and ranks fifth behind; Germany, France, Spain and Italy.

January 2026 will mark the 19th anniversary of Bulgaria’s membership of the EU. They are the poorest country in the EU with 1 in 3 classed as living in poverty. Prior to becoming an EU member, poverty was 1 in 5.

Based on the above, I am not convinced that EU membership guarantees:

Greater prosperity
Lower unemployment
Lower immigration

Dear Trotter, have you worked out the thing about the roundabouts yet?

Just admit such report does not exist dear Trotski

...

10.5 years in prison.

https://bsky.app/profile/ottoenglish.bsky.social/post/3m67ukxxdx22c
It's January 31st, 2020, and Nathan Gill is celebrating our imminent departure from the EU.... and that terrible idea of a European Army.

Hmm, now I wonder who else would have been delighted about that.

Nathan Gill doing Putin's bidding to destabilise Europe.
Steve Witkoff doing Putin's bidding to destabilise Europe

and the derailer here still trying to point out squirrels

@DuncinToffee

Just admit such report does not exist dear Trotski

Take a look at:

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/brexit-productivity-evidence/

My grandfather never had a birth certificate, but he lived for 85 years. The logic being that absence of a piece of paper does not change actual facts which can be measured.

@pointythings

have you worked out the thing about the roundabouts yet?

In the UK, people drive round them in a clockwise direction. Painting them needs local authority permission.

That nobody commented on my view that EU membership does not guarantee:

Greater prosperity
Lower unemployment
Lower immigration

Is duly noted.

Maybe look at:

www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/21/eu-economy-international-trade-reliance-vulnerable-ecb-lagarde

To appreciate that EU is wobbly.

Dear Trots,

No, you still haven't got it. Train harder. 'Painting roundabouts' in the context of the current UK does not, in the parlance of Inigo Montoya, mean what you think it means.

That was a fun read, cheers Globe

Your grandfathers existence was a fact, so is Brexit.

@pointythings

Per year, I spend maximum of 90 days in the UK and minimum of 183 days in Bulgaria. During a recent visit to the UK, I saw a few UK flags on lampposts and in windows of houses, but not any painted roundabouts. So, not sure what point you are trying to make or prove.

@DuncinToffee

The key point to note is the validity and accuracy of the OBR’s claim of 4% productivity lost and that their forecasts don’t align with actual data which has been measured.

Trots, you persist in pretending you know everything about how the UK economy has or has not been impacted by Brexit. You pretend to know everything about what various election outcomes mean. And yet you can't be bothered to train yourself about what painting roundabouts means these days? Not buying it.

@pointythings

yet you can't be bothered to train yourself about what painting roundabouts means these days? Not buying it.

The subject of UK flags on posts and roundabouts was raised recently on BBC Question Time. The outcome was:

Some viewers saw the display as a sign of patriotism, while others expressed discomfort due to the flag's past association with extremist groups. So, a mixed bag of opinions.

I have no issue with people putting flags up in their homes or gardens and it often happens during World Cup football matches. However, they should be placed on lampposts and roundabouts as the local councils will have to spend money to have them removed.

Well, done, only took you three goes!

Noted Globe, did they mention it on QT?