Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

If there weren't wars, droughts and other catastrophes, there wouldn't be refugees.

A bit simplistic but so you get the jest

Your issue is asylum seekers not immigration. Or maybe not immigration from Globe approved countries.

@DuncinToffee

If there weren't wars, droughts and other catastrophes, there wouldn't be refugees

Wars, droughts and other disasters have occurred throughout the World long before the word Brexit existed. So, I don’t see the connection between Brexit and:

People crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Africa. Some of which end up in Calais.

People moving Westwards into the EU from troubles in the Middle East. Some of which end up in Calais.

You don't see the connection, that's you.

Plenty of evidence when you actually look.

@DuncinToffee

Plenty of evidence when you actually look.

So, for my benefit and others on MN, please provide the evidence that Brexit is the cause of:

Wars in Africa and the Middle East

Drought. Lack of rainfall, extreme temperatures, climate change…………., the list could be endless.

Other catastrophes. That could mean anything.

Some positive news

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-scores-brexit-win-eu-fast-tracks-electricity-trading-talks/

So, the EU has finally realised that the red tape was a bigger problem for themselves than it was for the UK. EU exports more to the UK than UK exports to the EU. Therefore, increased red tape was always going to be a bigger cost to the EU than the UK.

ThEy NeEd Us MoRe ThAn We NeEd ThEm!

Or just adult negotiations. We all want our electricity prices to come down especially when you have the one of the highest in Europe thanks to Brexit.

@DuncinToffee

Energy prices are high in the UK due to the pursuit of net zero which came about in the 2008 Climate change act;

One year before Article 50 was finalised in 2009

Eight years before the 2016 referendum.

Nine years before 498 MPs voted to leave the EU in 2017

Twelve years before the UK left the EU in 2020.

Whilst on the subject of Brexit, I still await to see the evidence that Brexit is the cause of:

Wars

Drought

Other catastrophes

Would you like me to start with 'once upon a time'?

Or maybe just grow up and have a adult discussion @GlobeTrotter2000

@DuncinToffee

You made the statement that Brexit is the cause of;

Wars

Drought

Other catastrophes

I await the evidence.

You really are pathetic with your primary school debating techniques.

If that is the extent of the average Brexiteer's thought processes it's no wonder it was such a sh!t storm...

@MaybeNotBob

You really are pathetic with your primary school debating techniques.

Standard cop out when people can’t support their statements.

You made the statement that increased boat crossings are due to Brexit. The explanation as to why that’s incorrect is on the thread Immigration/brexit.

Toffee made the statement that Brexit is the cause of:

Wars

Drought

Other catastrophes

but did not provide any evidence.

Actually, GlobalAI may be learning, I think the Straw Man argument wouldn't come up until Junior school...

This is starting to feel a lot like bullying.

Which is probably the purpose

It's like being beaten slowly to death with the most boring and repetitive book in the world, where every chapter is identical in content but written in slightly different words. The aim is to create acquiescence to the Holy Church of Brexit.

Meanwhile in the real world, people are slowly coming to their senses.

When I first started out in the field of Arbitration, I was told:

Never make a statement without documentary evidence to back it up.

So far, I have unable to locate evidence that demonstrates that Brexit is the cause of, wars, drought and other catastrophes, even though I was told I would find such evidence if I looked.

So, can someone point me in the right direction?

I just noticed I used jest instead of gist, maybe that was what triggered the malfunction.

I imagine that straw men and primary school debating techniques are very useful in arbitration...

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

Several points to note:

UK did not leave the EU in 2016, but on 31 January 2020 at 11pm UK time. Transition period was to 31 December 2020. So, there is not a decade of data to examine.

I see the words and phrases:

simulations based on estimates.

These estimates suggest….

We estimate…..

However, the word actual does not appear.

The Bank of England DMP (Decision Maker Panel) survey was set up in August 2016 and takes results from a sample of 48,000 UK businesses with 10 or more employees. About 2,500 responses are received monthly.

There are are approximately 5.6 million businesses in the UK. 4.1 (73%) million of which are sole traders. Businesses that have 10 or more employees is approximately 266,000, 5% of the total number of businesses in the UK, but DMP only draws data from 48,000 which is a mere 0.86% of all UK businesses.

Source of the above is the ONS.

So, the Decision Maker Panel has excluded 99.14% of all businesses in the UK for a consecutive 10 year period. Hardly a representative sample of the UK.

So, I would again warn against conclusions being drawn from tiny samples. That they are unreliable was demonstrated in polls from 2013 to 2016 whereby a remain victory was forecast for the 2016 referendum.

Yet you have no counter "samples", so just keep on barking from the sidelines.

Or maybe go paint a roundabout...

@MaybeNotBob

Yet you have no counter "samples", so just keep on barking from the sidelines.

Small samples can’t be used to determine the view of the entire electorate. Even the Talkin Policemen has stated that the only poll that counts is the ballot box.

However, if you need proof that estimates are unreliable, take a look at ONS figures for unemployment from 2015 to 2025. There was a measured decline in unemployment from 2015 to Q4 of 2024, but the DMP estimates say there has been a reduction in employment of 3 to 4% which is the opposite of the actual measured data.

As for painting roundabouts, should that not be allocated to the immigrants who have been given free hotel accommodation so the taxpayers see something in return for the taxes they pay?

Just as well we've had enough of experts, hey?

https://bsky.app/profile/bloomberg.com/post/3m64xv5figi2o

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 at the AITrotter not understanding what painting roundabouts in the UK is.