Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
.
There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

@pointythings

Fortunately the people who voted for Brexit are dying off. If there was another referendum today, we would be rejoining.

The UK population is ageing, not becoming younger.

There are about 48 million people in the UK registered to vote. How can you know how each of them would vote?

@Talkinpeace

It did not deliver any of the things its proponents promised.

Incorrect.

UK got a better trade deal with the U than the EU despite Obama being prompted by Cameron and Osborne to say that UK would be back of the queue.

Sir Jacob Rees Mogg said many times that EU tariffs on; food clothing and footwear were high. If the UK left EU, UK would be able to set their own tariffs.

It happened. Rachel Reeves has lowered tariffs on imported supermarket products.

The TCA freed the UK services industry from EU regulations.

and those of us who voted to stay in the EU are as angry as we ever were

Other than crying on MN, what are you doing to convince people that rejoining the EU is best for the UK?

@Peregrina

And we went on to say it's now up to the Brexiters to make it happen. But funnily enough, a good many of them seemed not to bother to get stuck in and somehow are no longer in Government.

Since the referendum, UK has had a string on PMs who voted remain in 2016.

David Cameron
Theresa May
Lis Truss
Kier Starmer

Little wonder it never got much attention.

Indeed we had a string of once voting Remain MPs, but I recall that as soon as Cameron cleared off, Johnson didn't throw his hat in the ring to try to become PM. Oh no, he was more interested in playing cricket.

He eventually did I will grant and made the most appalling pig's ear of being a PM.

@Peregrina

He eventually did I will grant and made the most appalling pig's ear of being a PM.

I would award that trophy to David Cameron. He offered two choices:

Leave or Remain

but never had a plan for a leave vote even though his booklet said:

This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide.

That he announced his resignation the day after the referendum result was very cowardly.

The UK population is ageing, not becoming younger.
There are about 48 million people in the UK registered to vote. How can you know how each of them would vote?

Im ageing. Im now mid 50s. I'd still vote remain

My older sister and daughter both voted leave. Both would now vote remain. There are 5 siblings plus partners (10) and and 7 cousins. 2 of whom were too young to vote.
In 2016 the voting was :
9 voting leave, 6 voting remain, 2 too young.
Today it would be:
2 leave, 3 on the fence, 12 voting remain.

I suspect there are similar patterns up and down the country.

Liz Truss 😂 Good one EE

Johnson promised an oven ready deal.

He lied

When did Johnson not lie?

It happened. Rachel Reeves has lowered tariffs on imported supermarket products.
Oh yes, the Australian beef deal is a kick in the teeth for UK farmers

Sir Jacob Rees Mogg said many times that EU tariffs on; food clothing and footwear were high. If the UK left EU, UK would be able to set their own tariffs.
What were they then
What are they now

Do you understand that tariffs vary between source countries, materials, value and end use ?

Is that a trick question?

@Talkinpeace

Farming is 0.6% of UK GDP. Of that, about 55% is consumed within the UK.

UK service industry has boomed since Brexit and represents 80% and 83% of UK GDP and employment respectively. Maybe look at the big picture instead of micro details.

The details of tariffs are:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/duty-suspensions-and-tariff-quotas#cost-of-living-suspensions-agricultural-products

@DuncinToffee

If Johnson lied, why was he not sued? It was attempted over the red bus and failed.

Maybe you and others can sue him over the oven ready deal which Farage said would cause indigestion for years. ie it was a poor deal.

Like David Cameron, Boris did not have a leave plan.

@EEexpat
You quoted JRM talking about food and footwear
what were the tariffs he said were too high
what are they now

@Perplexed20

I am not a great believer of polls, but some are.

YouGov poll shows that 31% of people think they would be better off if the UK rejoined the EU. If that’s true, does that mean 69% think they would not be better off?

If so, what is the likelihood of another referendum resulting in a rejoin vote?

More significantly, an application to join the EU does not guarantee acceptance. For example, the junkyard (Jean Claude Juncker) of Luxembourg has stated the UK will not rejoin the EU in his lifetime. His reasons are:

EU is wounded by UK decision to leave.

UK is too close to the US.

The US is not popular in EU.

@EEexpat , you got it spot on, there was no plan.

Hence the damage Brexit is causing the UK

You and @LouiseCollins28 won

@Talkinpeace

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said that EU tariffs on: food, clothing and footwear were high. These items are what those on low incomes spend most of their money on.

So, lower tariffs on those items would benefit the poorest the most.

Trade deal with India is intended to remove 99% of tariffs on; food, clothing and footwear.

So the tariff rate has only been changed for India
not on clothes and shoes in general
(Bangladesh, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia are all BIG suppliers of clothing and shoes)

What about non tariff requirements
hopefully they will stay in place for safety reasons

@DuncinToffee

Hence the damage Brexit is causing the UK

How is:

Lower immigration than the EU,
Lower tariffs than the EU,
Higher growth than the EU,

Damaging?

The lack of plan by Cameron and Theresa May, who both voted remain, plus the 498 MPs who triggered article 50 on 29 March 2017, is why the UK did not leave the EU on 29 March 2019.

A plan made beforehand may have enabled deals to be made before World events such as:

COVID
Russia / Ukraine
Iran

Diverted attention.

World events that affected every country.

You knew what you voted for, you won.

Owe the damage it has caused the UK.

plus the 498 MPs who triggered article 50 on 29 March 2017,

As ever EEexpat comes in like a stuck record... stuck record... stuck record.

@DuncinToffee

World events that affected every country.

Precisely. Which diverted attention from trade deals as they were grappling with:

COVID - trying to keep people alive
Energy prices - trying to help people feed and heat themselves

Trade deals are not much help when dead or struggling to survive.

@Peregrina

It’s a fact that 498 MPs triggered article 50 on 29 March 2017. They too should have had a plan.

The Covid response would have benefited from not having vast resources redirected to the non existing Brexit plans.

Another thing Johnson made a mess of.

@DuncinToffee

The lack of plan was attributable to David Cameron. He made an offer of leave or remain without a leave plan.

Thats why he announced his resignation the day after the referendum result was known. Doing so, he avoided questions as to how Brexit would be implemented as promised in his booklet sent to every household in the United Kingdom.

Remainer arrogance which still exists today.

Irrespective of UK COVID response, to make deals with other countries requires their attention and input too. As pointed out by yourself, World events affected every country in the world.

Not so easy to achieve the goal of reconnecting with the rest of the world when they too are grappling with COVID, energy crisis. etc.

Read the Covid Inquiry report

It started with Cameron, it didn't end with him. Remember Johnson's non existing oven ready deal.

Leaver ignorance which still exists today 🦄

Personally, I think Cameron had no choice but to resign. He didn't have any credibility after that and couldn't have possibly led the government.
Johnson led leave and should have stepped up but that would have been rather inconvenient given that he nor any of the others thought they would win. They just wanted to disrupt with no responsibility.

But why on earth is this well explored issue being rehashed here (again)?

Brexit happened, its made us all poorer to the tine of about £3k per person. And as the saying goes 'its the economy stupid', ultimately it will end up coming back to that. So the question eventually will be a pragmatic view of what helps the economy, once they think people are both feeling the pain and got over themselves sufficiently to move on (or the demographic has changed).