Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

53% are idiots then

So, people are no longer entitled to an opinion of their own?

The 2024 general election was estimated to have cost £94.5 million as per the electoral commission. That’s about the same as 16 days cost to the UK to accommodate migrants at a rate of £6 million per day.

So, what would you spend the £94.5 million on instead?

I generally agree with that. No immediate GE was called when Cameron handed over to May, neither when Johnson handed over to Truss, nor when Truss resigned and Sunak took over.

One minor point of difference between the above examples and the current handover apparently going to happen between Starmer and Burnham is that Burnham wasn't an MP at the last election. He didn't stand on the Labour manifesto in 2024.

The above means that Burnham doesn't really have a mandate to implement anything in Labour's 2024 programme (I don't think this will bother him at all). I think it also means that he has Schrodinger's Mandate, a mandate both to do nothing as I've just explained but at the same time to propose almost anything he likes, precisely because he didn't stand on the 2024 programme. How he and Labour navigate that will be fascinating.

Well, we could do with more clinical staff on our wards. And £94 m builds quite a few new council houses.

ETA people are fully entitled to their opinion. And so am I.

Back to the migrant hate

Selective migrants that is

The UK could have done with the £180 billion per year lost thanks to Brexit

@LouiseCollins28

One minor point of difference between the above examples and the current handover apparently going to happen between Starmer and Burnham is that Burnham wasn't an MP at the last election. He didn't stand on the Labour manifesto in 2024.

This is the main point I would say.

@pointythings

Whether the next PM is Andy Burnham or someone else, they will be the 7th in the last ten years anyway.

Another Brexit consequence.

@DuncinToffee

The UK could have done with the £180 billion per year lost thanks to Brexit

As per the available measured data (as opposed to theoretical estimates) UK growth has been greater than both France and Germany since 2019. The gap between UK and Germany (above UK in world rankings) has narrowed. Likewise, the gap between UK and France (below UK in world rankings) has increased.

Another Brexit consequence.

How?

As you have pointed out yourself, 7th in the last 10 years.

It started with Cameron running away.

Just imagine how much better the UK economy would have done without the Brexit loss.

@DuncinToffee

Cameron promised a referendum, but never had a plan for a leave vote. Ultra arrogant Eton/Oxford silver spoon up the rear thought the peasants would never dare to have a different opinion. So, like a coward he resigned the day after.

Enter Theresa (treason) May (who voted remain in 2016) wanted the UK pay to remain deal to be passed by MPs without showing them the legal advice prepared by the attorney general, Cox.

498 MPs voted to leave in 2017, but never had a plan. They then spend two and a half years trying to overturn the vote!

Johnson never had a plan either as he confirmed on the BBC documentary, Brexit - A very British Civil War.

Liz Truss (who voted remain in 2016) lasted 49 days.

Labour win in 2024 and Kier Starmer is PM. The same party who advocated for a second referendum with option to remain.

As long as UK has PMs who don’t believe in Brexit, it will not achieve its full potential.

As long as UK has PMs who don’t believe in Brexit, it will not achieve its full potential.

😅

Glad you acknowledge Brexit is a belief.

@DuncinToffee

Glad you acknowledge Brexit is a belief.

No such statement was made. Like the MayBe, you are trying to put words which have not been said into the mouths of others.

Brexit was triggered on 29 March 2017 by 498 UK lawmakers because they thought it was the best for the UK. Likewise 113 UK lawmakers didn’t think it was best for the UK and voted against Brexit.

However, since that date, there have been several PMs who don’t want it.

Why do you keep repeating the same stuff about who voted what? It was almost 10 years ago. It was a whipped vote, not a free vote. And you have said it hundreds of times on here. We know. We know. We know.

Do you believe in Brexit 🎶

Anyway, Brexit happened, it is done.

@pointythings

If the vote was whipped on 29 March 2017, why did MPs try for two and a half years attempt to revoke article 50 up until the general election in 2019?

Did those who were whipped on 29 March 2017 steal the whips from the whips and then whipped the whippers into whipping the MPs elected on 8 June 2017 to revoke?

Way to tell us you know nothing about Westminster Parliamentary processes...

@pointythings

So, what is the Parliamentary process and how does it explain the 180 degree u-turn that was attempted for two and a half years?

Labour were the culprits. Went into the 2017 election on a promise to respect the Brexit vote, but changed their minds when they received 40% of the vote only narrowly behind the conservatives on 42%.

They then change their minds and become a remain party with the idea of forcing and winning a general election.

Seriously, if you want to comment on UK politics, learn the basics. Look up what a three line whip is and how it applies to the vote you keep on and on and on and on and on referring to.

I am not going to spoonfeed a purveyor of endless AI slop.

E2A: Oops wrong quote

So, not delivering manifesto promises seems to be the norm.

If EEexpat were to trouble to follow Westminster politics more closely she would find that this is quite normal for whichever party gets into power.

As to who is Mr Brexit. It needn't be asked because we all know it's Nigel Farage, although he is now desperately trying to disown it. In the same way that he's quickly got tired of being MP for Clacton.

@Peregrina

would find that this is quite normal for whichever party gets into power

Maybe that’s why the turnout for general elections is declining over time? Peak was 83% in 1950s. 2024 was about 60%.

Brexit was triggered by a parliamentary vote on 29 March 2017. Farage became an MP in July 2024. So, by definition he was not one of the 498 MPs who voted.

If you believe polls, Reform is top of the list for voting intention. I would not be too surprised if they became more popular if Farage is found guilty of not following donations criteria.

I think I could make a reasoned case that Boris Johnson, not Nigel Farage was "Mr Brexit" when it actually happend.

Sure, Nigel Farage actually believed in it as a political outcome whereas it's highly questionable whether Boris Johnson did, regardless of what he wrote in whichever paper it was.

However, Boris Johnson a) was one of the leading people in the Vote Leave campaign, whereas Nigel Farage was not really, and b) Johnson actually delivered the deal which made Brexit an administrative reality in Government.

Farage was and is a key advocate for Brexit, no question there, but IMO he wasn't "Mr Brexit" back in 2016-19, Johnson was/is.

Where you are unquestionably right is that now, in the 2026 political landscape Reform UK and Nigel Farage have assumed the "Mr Brexit" role now. I do genuinely think the Reform UK programme is broader and deeper than that though.

@LouiseCollins28
@Peregrina

If you watch the BBC documentary, Brexit - A very British civil war

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002xhvl

Boris Johnson acknowledges he didn’t think leave would win. Nor had he made a plan for Brexit.

Farage stood down his candidates in Tory seats in the 2019 election to aid Johnson and his oven ready non plan.

How did that prevent the 16.1 million people who voted remain in 2016 from voting for the Liberal Democrat’s?