Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
.
There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

@DuncinToffee

Measured facts don’t change no matter how often they are quoted.

@pointythings

'poles'? Got a little bug there, EE?

How does that counter the presented facts?

If it is all going so well for the UK, then Labour is doing a good job.

Why aren't all those Reform politicians celebrating the success of Brexit instead of kissing Putin Trump's arse?

@DuncinToffee

If it is all going so well for the UK, then Labour is doing a good job.

Labour inherited a growing economy from the previous conservative government. Many of the trade deals made since Labour were already underway before Labour won in July 2024. A fact that Labour never reveals. However, growth has slowed since Labour took over.

Unemployment in the UK had declined steadily from 2015 for a 10 year period to Q42024. Unemployment has increased since then due to Labour making it more expensive for employers to employ people.

I would say Labour’s low rating in the polls is due to the broken promise of no increase to taxes. So, far they have increased taxes twice.

After all, what impacts people more instantly and visibly than a reduction in take home pay?

So, why are the brexiteers not celebrating the succes of Brexit?

@DuncinToffee

So, why are the brexiteers not celebrating the succes of Brexit?

Maybe they are celebrating, but getting on with their lives in contentment instead of interacting with forums such as MN.

Sure Jan

"Labour inherited a growing economy from the previous conservative government."

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Oh dear! You're really going to have to try better than that!

https://www.ft.com/content/3733b2b0-5d1e-47ba-b39f-ac8b113cce65?

EU demands ‘Farage clause’ as part of Brexit reset talks with Britain

Reform UK leader vows to overturn any insurance deal with Brussels, saying such a move would be a ‘democratic outrage’

@MaybeNotBob

UK economy was growing before Labour won in July 2024. Source:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/octobertodecember2024#:~:text=The%20services%20sector%20increased%20by,increase%20of%200.4%25%20in%202023.

UK economy has flatlined since Labour took over in July 2024. Source:

https://fullfact.org/live/2024/sep/uk-gdp-performance/

@DuncinToffee

If both the EU and Starmer are confident that Farage will not win the next election, why would such a clause be necessary?

Why is Starmer trying to delay local elections if he is confident Farage has no support?

The UK lost trust. Just how many lies were told aboout Brexit?

@DuncinToffee

The UK lost trust.

This bit is correct. Turnout in elections is dwindling. The reason is simple. Manifesto promises are made, but seldom delivered. In some cases they are reversed.

The current government is a good example. Taxes have risen in two consecutive budgets in contradiction to the manifesto promise there would be no increase in taxes.

Just how many lies were told aboout Brexit?

Losers will likely say many. Winners will likely say none.

There will never be a policy that pleases 100% of the population. Hence the voting system was introduced.

You have told us plenty of times how well you have done out of Brexit.

And the EU

And Russia

@DuncinToffee

You have told us plenty of times how well you have done out of Brexit.

Others must be doing well too as evidenced by the 4+ million who voted Reform in the 2024 general election. Remember, Farage has seen the largest growth of all political parties since the 2016 referendum. 500K votes in 2017 to 4 million votes in 2024.

It's easier to blame foreigners than to admit you believed the lies

I think after today we can start calling them the Reformatories.

@DuncinToffee

It's easier to blame foreigners than to admit you believed the lies

I voted Labour in the 2024 general election. Main reasons were:

No increase to taxes
Smash the gangs

Unfortunately, the opposite has happened.

You may wish to watch the 5 December 2024 episode of BBC Question Time. Both Nigel Farage and Alastair Campbell agreed that allowing immigrants into the UK was okay as long as they were working. ie contributing. Makes sense as the decline in UK birth rate and an ageing population can only be balanced by increased immigration or by encouraging people to have more children.

@pointythings

I think after today we can start calling them the Reformatories.

Call them whatever you wish. I would class them the same as any other person who votes in they are free to vote however they wish. A concept that remain supporters seem unable to accept.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/13/dealing-with-post-brexit-paperwork-pure-hell-shipping-head-tells-mps

Based on what vets charge, they can easily afford it.

Also, remember that it’s a two way street. EU exports to the UK are subject to the same regulations. As the EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU, the regulatory changes costs the EU more than the UK.

So it's a win win if it make both parties poorer?

You really don't understand much, do you...

@MaybeNotBob

So it's a win win if it make both parties poorer?

Who on this thread, or any other, said it was a win win?

The terms of the TCA apply equally to both the EU and the UK. If the regulatory requirements increase the administrative costs of exports, then those who export the most will experience the highest overall increase in costs.

As the EU has a trade surplus for goods exported to the UK, they incur the highest increase in administrative costs due to the terms of the TCA.

So it's a lose lose then.

I.e., it is more proof that Brexit is a disaster for all of us.

Well, expect for EEmigrant, who is living the life of Riley in Bulgaria...

@MaybeNotBob

So it's a lose lose then

Regards exports of good, it’s a bigger loss for the EU I would say. I can’t work out how the EU could not see the risks to themselves when they knew that they had a trade surplus of goods exports to the UK.

I.e., it is more proof that Brexit is a disaster for all of us.

UK economy is more service based than goods. The split is approximately, 81% services covering 83% of employment and 19% good covering 17% of employment.

The TCA does not impose regulations on service exports. Hence service exports to both EU and non-EU countries have increased by 19% and 23% respectively since 2019. Source:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

So, whilst some may be worse off since Brexit, I am not convinced it’s the entire UK taking into account services are 83% of employment.

Regards exports of good, it’s a bigger loss for the EU I would say.

So you finally admit that it's a loss.

Well done! You'll get to the logical result eventually...

@MaybeNotBob

The TCA regulations regards export of goods, as opposed to services, has increased paperwork for both the EU and the UK. However, due to EU trade surplus in goods with the UK, they incur the greatest amount of paperwork and cost.

Services represent approximately 66% of EU economy compared to 81% for the UK. So, the freedom the TCA has given to export of services is more helpful to the UK as it a larger % of the total economy compared to the EU.

The growth in UK services exports significantly offsets any decline or reduced growth in goods exports. Source:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/november2025#:~:text=1.,!