Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
.
There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

Morewinning for EEmigrant to dismiss...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/21/uk-failure-to-seal-eu-tax-exemption-hands-industry-mountain-of-paperwork

The value of steel exports from UK to EU is approximately £3 billion per year. That’s less than 1% of all exports to the EU. ie trivial.

Rather than clutch straws by referring to tiny things, maybe explain the bigger picture. For example,

The UK harmonised unemployment rate for Q3 2025 was 5.0%. This was above Germany (3.7%) and the US (4.3%), but below France (7.7%).
The Eurozone’s rate was 6.4% while in the G7 it was 4.5%.
Spain had the highest unemployment rate out of the OECD member states in Q3 2025 at 10.5%, followed by Finland at 9.9%. Japan and Korea had the lowest at 2.5%.
Youth (aged 15 to 24) unemployment is a major issue in many developed economies at present. In Q3 2025 the youth unemployment rate was 25.0% in Spain, and it was also 20% or over in Sweden (24.3%), Finland (22.3%), Estonia (22.0%), Greece (20.7%) and Italy (20.7%). It was 15.3% in the UK.

Source:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02800/

You may also wish to be aware that immigration into the UK ranks fifth behind; Germany, France, Spain and Italy.

Isn't Brexit great EE

Funny how in EEMigrant's world, nothing matters. "That's only 1%, this is only 1%, etc. etc."

By now there must be hundreds of, "it's only 1%"'s...

https://www.esmmagazine.com/retail/uk-food-exports-to-eu-plummet-nearly-a-quarter-after-brexit-302878

Erasmus is back.

If only Starmer had a backbone and would ignore Refom and the polls
and start Single Market negotiations.

Farmers winning... maybe they shouldn't have been so stupid as to vote for Brexit

Brexit benefit as promised by Vote Leave

2016⬇

Bulgaria joins the eurozone as its 21st country after formally adopting the euro.

In answer to the thread title

A large majority of Europeans (74%) want their country to stay in the EU (vs 19% who want to leave).
But there are some interesting national divergences, with lowest support for the EU in France (still 61 vs 27)

Brexit is clearly seen as having had a negative impact on the United Kingdom: 63% think so, with the highest number (82%) in Spain, and the lowest in Poland (43%).

https://bsky.app/profile/rikefranke.bsky.social/post/3mbeepv77ik2m

I wonder why they only surveyed 9 countries ?
and why they missed out the ones they did ?

Small samples again. The EU has 27 members, but only 9 (one third) were surveyed.

Of the 9 member countries surveyed, how many people were asked for their opinion? Was it the entire population, or only a few thousand as seems to be the case in the UK? If it was the later, which is more likely than the former, then no conclusions can be made.

Of the 9 member countries surveyed, how many people were asked for their opinion? Was it the entire population, or only a few thousand as seems to be the case in the UK? If it was the later, which is more likely than the former, then no conclusions can be made.

Learn statistics AI

You don't know how sampling works, do you? 😂

EEmigrant doesn't know how much works.

In other winning news...

https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-plays-whack-a-mole-with-eu-red-tape/

@pointythings

Polls from 2013 to 2016 forecast a remain result in the referendum. They were wrong. So, what makes people think they are accurate now?

@Talkinpeace

I remember that you were the one that stated polls were for press only and did not mean anything as the only poll that means anything was the ballot box? But now you seem to be trusting small samples?

"trusting small samples"

give over - its how opinion polling works, everywhere, always

my point about elections v polls is that "who would you vote for" polls are all rather a joke when no election has been called
AND
not every party stands in every seat so the outcomes are pretty much worthless

The polls in the runup to the referendum were within the margin of error, so that isn't the gotcha you think it is. It is normal for polls to tighten as the actual election/referendum gets closer.

None of what you say suggests that you understand how polls actually work, and what they mean (and especially what they do NOT mean).

@pointythings

None of what you say suggests that you understand how polls actually work, and what they mean (and especially what they do NOT mean).

Is answered by TalkinPeace post with emphasis in bold:

my point about elections v polls is that "who would you vote for" polls are all rather a joke when no election has been called
AND
not every party stands in every seat so the outcomes are pretty much worthless

As no election has been called, what makes you think current polls are accurate?

Also, remember that Brexit was brought about by an act of Parliament initially in 2017 by a vote of 498 to leave vs 113 to remain. There was no margin of error in the vote cast 29 March 2017 as it was not based on a sample of MPs, but a vote cast by 100% of MPs.

It was reinforced in 2019 when the Conservatives won by a majority even though the Liberal Democrat’s pledged to revoke article 50 if they won (which they didn’t and actually received fewer votes than in the 2017 general election).

That point has been made a hundred times on these threads.

But fortunately, none of that means Brexit cannot be reversed. We have a government that is making sensible approaches. Public opinion is shifting, especially with the US no longer an ally of any kind. I may yet see some form of Rejoin in my lifetime. Which would be great.

@pointythings

We have a government that is making sensible approaches

So, why are Labour not top of the poles, which according to you are accurate?

Public opinion is shifting, especially with the US no longer an ally of any kind

As per the polls, public opinion is moving towards Reform. US imposed lower tariffs on the UK than the EU. So, I would say they prefer the UK to the EU.

I may yet see some form of Rejoin in my lifetime. Which would be great.

It’s not necessary to be in the EU to trade with the EU. Canada, Japan and South Korea have free trade agreements with the EU and they don’t pay a penny to the EU.

Trade deals, such as the US (largest economy in the world) and India (fifth largest economy in the world) made by the UK since leaving the EU may not align with the EU. Tearing up trade deals with the US would never happen as almost one quarter of UK exports are to the US.

So, I would say a rejoin will never happen.

You don't want it to happen, that is fine.

The UK outside of the EU is weakened, both economically and politically.

@DuncinToffee

The UK outside of the EU is weakened, both economically and politically.

Before Brexit, the only EU member that had a larger economy than the UK was Germany. Since Brexit, Germany remains the only EU member to have a larger economy than the UK. So, if being in the EU guarantees:

Higher growth

How do you explain UK was fastest growing G7 economy in 2025?

Lower immigration

How do you explain UK has lower immigration than; Germany, France, Spain and Italy?

Lower unemployment

How do you explain UK unemployment, 5%, is lower than France, 7.5% and Spain 10.5%?

Greater bargaining power for trade

How do you explain US tariffs on UK are 10%, but 15% on the EU?

All of the above is measured data as opposed to theoretical forecasts or polls of small samples.

EE, you keep repeating yourself.

'poles'? Got a little bug there, EE?