Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

So it's still a loss then.

Glad we've sorted that out...

@MaybeNotBob

So it's still a loss then.

No. As explained the increase in the service sector outweighs any decline or loss the goods sector may have experienced. So, overall there is growth as evidenced by the measured fact that UK was the fastest growing economy in G7 in the first half of 2024.

Sadly, the growth has slowed and unemployment has increased since Labour took power in July 2024. Two consecutive tax increasing budgets saw to that effect.

More red tape is a Brexit benefit now?

So it's still a loss then...

I posted on the wrong thread above, asked MN to remove it.

@DuncinToffee
@MaybeNotBob

More red tape is a Brexit benefit now?

There is no red tape for the service industry as per the terms of the TCA. Services are 81% and 83% of UK economy and employment respectively.

Increased paperwork and costs experienced by the goods sector are outweighed by the gains in the services sector. So, overall the TCA has benefited the UK.

The red tape, as you call it’s, affects the EU more as they export more.

So red tape is good now

Glad you cleared that up

@DuncinToffee

So red tape is good now

Who said it was? Point was that whilst there may have been some downsides for the goods sector, they are outweighed by the gains in the service sector. So, overall the UK has gained. Links already provided demonstrate that.

Glad you cleared that up

The poster, Maybe, also attempts to place words never said into the mouths of others. Maybe (get it) you are the same?

All you are doing is admitting that it's a loss.

Your attempts to hide that behind this story of "services" shows how entirely disingenuous you are.

Services are doing OK - woo hoo - (maybe they would have been doing even better without Brexit, you have no evidence that they are doing better because of it) but there is a very obvious loss in every single other part of trade which is self evidently because of Brexit.

Therefore it is a very clear loss.

Glad we've tidied that up.

@MaybeNotBob

Services are doing OK - woo hoo - (maybe they would have been doing even better without Brexit, you have no evidence that they are doing better because of it) but there is a very obvious loss in every single other part of trade which is self evidently because of Brexit.

Services represents 81% and 83% of UK economy and employment respectively. Four times more than all other sectors combined.

As for evidence that the service sector has surged since Brexit, the links are:

https://www.cityam.com/the-uks-services-sector-has-outperformed-since-brexit-and-the-city-is-leading-the-way/

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02786/

As you would no doubt say - correlation does not equal causation...

It’s more correct to say that correlation does not establish causation.

Key points, with emphasis in bold, are:

• According to the report, UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE), UK services trade has been more resilient than almost all other advanced economies since Brexit.

• The boom in services trade has been driven by ‘other business services’, which includes accountancy, management consultancy and legal services.

• Unlike finance, these services are less reliant on EU membership and so Brexit has imposed fewer costs. Business services are generally less heavily regulated than financial services and so the barriers to exchange are often lower.

The third bullet is the most significant which records that Brexit has imposed fewer costs on business services.

So, the surge in services was a direct result of Brexit. ie it was caused by Brexit.

In other words, they would almost certainly have been as good, if not better, if we hadn't had Brexit.

Therefore, all the other losses are still losses, but this singular aspect hasn't been as badly effected as all other aspects.

Still lose lose...

@MaybeNotBob

In other words, they would almost certainly have been as good, if not better, if we hadn't had Brexit.

Those words were not included. The key findings, with emphasis in bold, were:

The boom in services trade has been driven by ‘other business services’, which includes accountancy, management consultancy and legal services.

The definition of boom in business is:

a period of increased commercial activity characterized by rapid sales growth for businesses or significant GDP growth for economies.

these services are less reliant on EU membership and so Brexit has imposed fewer costs.

The key words are less reliant on EU membership.

Therefore, all the other losses are still losses, but this singular aspect hasn't been as badly effected as all other aspects.

Incorrect. The links provided earlier demonstrate that growth in services outweighs any decline in goods and manufacturing. Also, remember that manufacturing in the UK has been in decline since the 1980s.

Nope EEmigrant. Nothing you've posted suggests that the growth wouldn't have happened, or been even better without Brexit.

However, all the losses are demonstrably down to Brexit.

Proven lose lose...

How is it going

@MaybeNotBob

Nothing you've posted suggests that the growth wouldn't have happened, or been even better without Brexit.

What’s not clear about the measured data presented in the links provided?

Growth of services exports to EU and non-EU is up 19% and 23% in real terms compared to 2019 levels. That services are not regulated in the same manner as goods as per the TCA is the reason for higher growth in the EU.

Had there been no Brexit, there wouldn’t have been a TCA. The TCA allows greater freedom for services. Hence Brexit is the cause of growth.

The service sector is likely to form an even bigger share of UK economy due to Brexit. Developed western countries will never be able to complete with the low wages in; China, Malaysia and India. Hence the reason many companies use such countries for assembly. Examples include; Apple (my iPhone was assembled in China). BMW (my sons motorcycle was assembled in India)

Literally none of your links has suggested that trade in services has only improved because of Brexit! Do you not read the links provided to you yourself?

And literally everything else is still down - lose lose...

@DuncinToffee

US tariffs on UK goods = 10%

US tariffs on EU goods = 15%

In the second half of 2025, UK saw a £4 billion decline in goods exports to the US.

In the same period, EU saw a €41 (£35) billion decline in goods exports to the US.

So, it’s working better for the UK than the EU. However, US wish to take over Greenland might change things.

In other words, it would be better for us to do more trade with the EU than the US.

But numpties and racists made that harder and more expensive...

@MaybeNotBob

Although UK good exports to the US took a £4 billion hit, service exports to the US increased by £11 billion in 2025. So, overall trade with the US increased.

The UK trades with the EU in accordance with the TCA. Regulations are applied to goods, but not services. The increase in services exports to the EU is greater than the decline in goods.

But numpties and racists made that harder and more expensive...

This type of comment appears often, but it’s never backed up with evidence. The names of the 498 UK MPs who voted to leave are known, but how can the reason for their vote be attributed to racism?

Unfortunately, your disingenuous comments also appear very often.

You deny that if the racists and numpties hadn't voted for Brexit then the MPs would not have done?

That is a patently stupid take.

@MaybeNotBob

You deny that if the racists and numpties hadn'tvoted for Brexit then the MPs would not have done?

Where is the proof that 17.4 million who voted leave in the 2016 referendum can be categorised at racist and numpties? How were you able to identify who voted which way almost 10 years ago and establish the reason how they voted?

As per the 2015 EU referendum act, it was not obligatory for the UK government to accept the outcome.

Blah blah blah...