Brexit Megathread - Part 1 because it's not over by a long shot

[vera99]

Started a new thread for all things Brexity as the last generic dumping ground reached its 1000 post limit. As this developing shitshow unfolds it's going to be important to share and unload. Clav of course will punt a contrarian view along with unrepentant 'taking back control' so-called Brexiteers. I look forward to seeing the benefits.

Good article here in the FT describing Churchill's different motivations for the need to set up a "United States of Europe" and how that has led to so much misunderstanding.

My reading is that he was still viewing the world through the prism of the defunct Empire soon to become the Commonwealth and not able to recognise the shifting of the centres of power. (See also how the UK spent its Marshall Aid compared to France & Germany )

As a result, the UK didn't/wouldn't/couldn't at different stages join what was to become the Common Market and then EU and was therefore unable to shape it in its early days.

https://www.ft.com/content/3d6bbabc-7122-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926

prettybird - my reading of Churchill is pretty much the same as yours

Re the article, I am not sure that I agree with the author's last two paragraphs., where he talks about sorting out our relationship with the EU. At the moment the Government seems to have a pathological hatred of the EU, which is blinding them to any sort of reason. So even though Biden isn't going to offer a trade deal any time soon there is still the craven desire to join the trans Pacific partnership and now the AUSUK agreement. One in which I firmly believe was just an attempt to flatter Johnson, but completely lacking in substance for the UK.

I do wish that the author instead of talking of the 'Old Commonwealth' had spelt it out - he meant the White Commonwealth - not the black and brown skinned members of the Commonwealth. An exception might just be made for India, because it is the only country in the region which is big enough to provide a potential counterweight to China.

I think those two final paragraphs need to be read in the context of when that article was written - September 2016

I don't think that the author anticipated just how cloth eared and contrarian the UK Government would become even more than it was back then and how ignoring and disparaging experts became a means to climb the greasy political ladder

I agree with you about the Commonwealth being the "white" Commonwealth- but I'll forgive the article's author on the basis that he was looking at it through Churchill's perspective - and Churchill was a racist whether conscious or unconscious

Surely suspending the NI Protocol would completely shaft our relationship with the US and any remote chance of a trade deal?
Or perhaps Johnson et al don’t think that far ahead and/or don’t really care.

Trying to find method in Johnson's madness or some sort of policy continuity is a fool's errand. Cumming's who should know better than anybody summed it brilliantly at the Select Committee.

‘We cannot keep changing your mind every time the Telegraph writes an editorial on the subject’ – everybody agreed with me about that. Regardless of what they thought the real policy should be.

“No one could find a way around the problem of the Prime Minister [being] just like a shopping trolley smashing from one side of the aisle to the other.”

Earlier on Cummings was even more scathing in his attacks on Johnson, saying that he was unfit for office.

“Any system which ends up giving a choice between two people like [Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn] to lead is obviously a system that has gone extremely badly wrong,” he said.

“In any sensible, rational government it is complete crazy that I should have been in such a senior position in my personal opnion.

“I’m not smart, I’ve not built great things in the world, it’s completely crackers that someone like me should have been in there just the same as it was crackers Boris Johnson was in there.”

On the "new day, new horror" radar going to be Channel skirmishes with French fishermen.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10039471/New-Cod-War-three-four-small-French-boats-turned-post-Brexit-fishing-licences.html

^^

We can use the squirrel skins to make hats and coats for warmth

Letter to the Ft today no doubt Brexitetrs will rejoice at the elites squealing
Letter: Hospitality industry is facing a staffing crisis
The hospitality industry in the UK injects millions of pounds into the economy in taxes and helps to make people “feel good”.

Hospitality is not a low-skilled career. There are many roles both in the kitchen and on the floor which require a high level of training and extensive experience — eg, sashimi chef, sommelier, floor manager.

Many roles within hospitality need to be included on the skills shortage list (FT.com, September 27) — this is critical in order to save the industry under Brexit rules. A huge number of individuals have left the industry and many operators simply cannot stay afloat with reduced staffing levels. Post-Covid customer demand is increasing, but now we don’t have the necessary trained staff.

Pre-pandemic hospitality was the third-largest industry in the private sector and was estimated to contribute £133.5bn to national gross domestic product and employed over 3.2m people — about 10 per cent of the workforce — according to UK Hospitality. Allowing the sector to recruit the staff it needs will result in higher turnover, more jobs and the resultant taxes returning to pre-pandemic levels more quickly.

Hospitality is not a low-pay sector, and these are skilled jobs paying skilled wages. The problem is not that we cannot compete with other sectors on pay, but that the staff are not there in the numbers required.

The higher end of the hospitality market is struggling. It relies on well-trained staff as quality cannot be compromised. London’s restaurants are integral to the appeal of the city for tourists and those who choose to live and work here. A crisis in this sector will have ramifications for London as a global city.

We urgently ask the government to revise current settlement and pre-settlement schemes and the highly skilled migrants lists to address these imbalances.

Jeremy King
Co-Founder and Chief Executive, Corbin & King
Nick Jones
Soho House UK; Babington House
Arjun Waney
Restaurateur
Yotam Ottolenghi
Chef and Restaurateur
Sir Rocco Forte
Chairman, Rocco Forte Hotels
Michael Bonsor
Managing Director, The Rosewood Hotel
Andrew Love
Senior Advisor, The Ritz Club
Jeremy Goring
The Goring Hotel
Franck-Xavier Arnold
Managing Director and Regional Vice-President, The Savoy
André Balazs
Chiltern Firehouse, André Balazs Properties

Sophie Bathgate
Founder, Sophie’s Steakhouse, Sophie’s Soho
Sally Beck
Founder, Hoteliers’ Charter; General Manager, Royal Lancaster London
Sinclair Beecham
Co-founder, Pret A Manger
Sandeep Bhalla
General Manager, The Connaught

Nigel Bowen
Head Concierge, The Carlton Tower Jumeirah
Member of Les Clefs d’Or Great Britain
Roy Brett
Owner, Ondine Restaurant
Adam Byatt
Chef Patron, Trinity
Robin Birley
Founder, 5 Herford Street, Oswalds, Birley shops in the City
George Bukhov
Co-Founder, Burger & Lobster Restaurant Group
Joel and Divia Cadbury
Richard Caring
Chairman, Caprice Holdings
Jean-Francois Casanova
CEO Dream International B.V. Dogus
Adriano Cavagnini
Executive Chef, Bulgari Hotel London
Sue Crozier
HR Solutions Hospitality
Juan Santa Cruz
Founder, The Santa Cruz Co
Sir Mick Davis
Chairman, Vision Blue Resources Ltd
Robert Davis
Former Deputy Leader of Westminster Council
Peter Davies
Managing Director, WMT Troncmaster Services
Howard Field
Chairman, Savoy Education Trust
Sebastian Fogg and Laura Montana
Founders, Montana Fogg Restaurant Consultants
Lydia Forte
Rocco Forte Hotels
Didier Garnier
Owner Founder, Le Colombier
Clio Georgiadis
Estiatorio Milos
Peter Georgiou
Founder, SUPPER LONDON
Bill Granger
Founder, Granger & Co
Stuart Gillies
Chef and former CEO, Gordon Ramsay Group
Skye Gyngell
Chef & Founder, Spring restaurant
Naveen Handa
Cairn Group
Wendy Haowei
Founder, Aquavit
Adam Hyman
Founder, CODE Hospitality
Ziad Joumblat
President, Joël Robuchon International
Chairman, The Hummingbird Bakery
Aaron Kaupp
Regional Vice-President & General Manager of The Carlton Tower Jumeirah
Thomas Kochs
Managing Director, Corinthia London
Vincent Labeyrie
Founder, Gascon Connection
Kevin Lansdown
General Manager, Caviar Kaspia
Sam Lee
Owner MD, Temper Restaurants, Camm & Hooper Events
Abel Lusa
Founder, Cambio de Tercio, Tendido Cero
Capote y Toros and Tendido Cuatro
Fay Maschler
Journalist and Restaurant Critic
Francesco Mazzei
Chef Entrepreneur
Michael Millership
Joris Minne
Restaurant critic, Belfast Telegraph
Russell Norman
Chef
Francois O’Neill
Founder, Maison Francois
Layo and Zoe Paskin
Founders, The Palomar, The Barbary
Jason Phillips
Director, Wiltons Holdings - Franco’s, Wiltons & Locket’s
Jamie Poulton
Founder, Randall & Aubin
Baroness Shackleton
Belgravia LVO
Michael Shepherd
General Manager, Hilton Park Lane
Leonid Shutov
Founder, Bob Bob Ricard and Bob Bob Cite
Inderneel Singh
Managing Director, Edwardian Hotels London
William Sitwell
Restaurant Critic
Ed Thaw
Founder, Leroy
Alun Thomas
Senior Partner, Thomas and Thomas Partners
Simon Thomas
Chief Executive, Hippodrome Casino
Simon Thomas
Head Concierge, Lanesborough Hotel; Honorary President, Les clefs d’Or International
Ewan Venters
CEO, ARTFARM GROUP Ltd.

Mark Wakefield
Managing Director, Walton St James
Knut Wylde
General Manager, The Berkeley
Ninai Zarach
Founder, Manicomio and Canto Corvino

I'd love to know who on that list voter Leave.

I wonder if we'll end up effectively with FOM for EU citizens to come here but not for us to go there.

it's looking that way at the moment kendodd!

The best deal was the one we had before we left - everything else derogates from that. We are all leavers now and poorer for that sadly. Keir wasn't bad if a tad wooden and took on the moronic hecklers quite well I thought. What will Johnston's bluster consist of next week...

@borntobequiet

Surely suspending the NI Protocol would completely shaft our relationship with the US and any remote chance of a trade deal? Or perhaps Johnson et al don’t think that far ahead and/or don’t really care.

I expect that Johnson judges others by his own standards. He thinks they'll say anything to get the outcome they want even if it's total bollocks, because that's what he does. He also thinks they'll sit back on their arses enjoying the trappings of power while doing absolutely fuck all about any issues that crop up, because that's what he does. He's gambiling everything on his belief that everyone else is as feckless as he is.

You really can't make it up

British motorists driving outside the UK must now remove old-style GB stickers or cover them up.
Instead they should display a UK sticker or have the UK identifier on their number plate.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58734265

I wonder if we'll end up effectively with FOM for EU citizens to come here but not for us to go there

It's certainly looking that way!

British motorists driving outside the UK must now remove old-style GB stickers or cover them up.

Has the Government woken up to the fact that GB never included NI. It sounds a bit like trying to shut the stable door just as the horse is about to bolt. How many years until Ireland re-unites?

What a phenominal waste of time although it might put work the way of number plate manufacturers.

Meanwhile - local garages have fuel, but have bumped up the prices.

How many years until the "UK" is reduced to FUKD ?

prettybird
How many years until the "UK" is reduced to FUKD

Free the United Kingdom from Drugs ???

Keir Starmer did mention the awful drug-related deaths in Scotland today, but I thought he made it perfectly clear that he wasn't supporting an Independent Scotland;

Speaking at the Labour party conference in Brighton, [Keir Starmer] claimed he wanted to "bring our nations together" and slammed the prospect of Scottish independence as a "costly disruption".

“When Nicola Sturgeon took office she said she wanted to be judged on her record. These days, with the poorest in society less well-educated and less healthy and the tragedy of so many drug-related deaths we hear rather less about the SNP’s record.

20 September 2021
Scots don’t back Nicola Sturgeon’s push for 2023 independence vote.

www.politico.eu/article/poll-scots-nicola-sturgeon-2023-independence-vote/

Letter: Hospitality industry is facing a staffing crisis

The letter was mentioned on LBC today. James O'Brien's guest (a restaurateur - possibly one of the signatories of the letter) was asked what she thought of the government's request that the hospitality industry invest in the UK domestic workforce (instead of relying on labour from abroad). She dismissed this out of hand, said something about catering not even being a career in the UK and one of them joked about 'pie and mash' shops. Not a good answer at all I thought - she didn't even pretend to show an interest in training UK based staff - something we need to force a change on. Not forgetting of course, that furlough ends this week - approximately 600,000 people still receiving full or partial furlough payments.

I'm sure if willing talented and able British born potential staff rocked up for the numerous vacancies in hospitality they would get a good airing. Indeed my partner and I went for a meal along the Thames a few weeks back and very young very English guys waited and served us and very good they were. Never happened before and they were being trained and mentored by what were self-evidently originally EU staff. The real and acute life and death crisis is and will envelop the NHS and care sector and that is already grimly unfolding before our eyes.

Johnson pushed on with 'Get Brexit Done' and pretty much smashed up 42 years of carefully constructed and evolved business structures that supported the British economy to satisfy his own electoral timetable and ambitions. Indeed he said Fuck Business. And there you have it fires starting to burn on many fronts - but not one word of doubt at the impact and execution passes Clav's lips it would seem. Just some faux concern for the working class and deflecting whataboutery. Not a good answer at all I thought.

www.ft.com/content/8075e68c-7857-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

“Fuck business.” Never was the Brexit manifesto more succinctly captured than in Boris Johnson’s impromptu aside. As slogans go, it has everything. It surfs the populist wave of anger towards elites. It is easy to understand. Hell, it’s even shorter than “take back control”.

The UK’s foreign secretary apparently outlined his new business strategy at a private reception, when challenged about the clamour from Airbus and BMW over the threat to jobs and investment. Mr Johnson’s aides say the remark was aimed at business lobbyists. It makes little difference. (He has now fled to Kabul to avoid having to resign rather than vote with the government for a new runway at Heathrow. The foreign secretary had said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers. It turns out he preferred to lie low.)"

It turns out he preferred to lie low.

@YouGov
Britons think Brexit is going badly, and it's an opinion more people have come to as the year has gone on

Going well: 18% (-7)
Going badly: 53% (+15)
Neither: 21% (-4)

Changes from Jun 21, 2021

twitter.com/YouGov/status/1443245359749373962

“F...k business^

As reported by 'EU diplomats' - no doubt deliberately taken out of context.

the clamour from Airbus and BMW

18 August 2021
UK Government will Invest £26.2 Million in BMW Long-Range Battery Tech.

www.bmwblog.com/2021/08/18/uk-government-will-invest-26-2-million-in-bmw-long-range-battery-tech/

June 2021
Airbus opens new £40 million aerospace research centre in Filton.

www.mtdmfg.com/news/airbus-opens-new-40-million-aerospace-research-centre-in-filton/

August 2021
Airbus’ new £35m UK space and defence headquarters in Stevenage has been officially opened by the Prime Minister.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said:

“Seeing the beating heart of space manufacturing here in Stevenage shows that we have a world leading industry. I welcome the opening of this incredible new facility which underlines Airbus’ confidence in the UK and our space sector, and the role that the business is looking to play in its future.”

www.mtdmfg.com/news/airbus-opens-new-35-million-space-and-defence-hq-in-stevenage/

Surely suspending the NI Protocol would completely shaft our relationship with the US and any remote chance of a trade deal?

The chance of a trade deal is remote.
It's possible Johnson feels he has nothing to lose.

However, another variable in this equation is whether there is US support for a reunited Ireland, and what might be done both formally and informally to create a favourable climate and push forward a vote on this.

www.thejournal.ie/northern-ireland-protocol-brexit-afghanistan-us-brendan-boyle-5535607-Aug2021/
Breaking the Northern Ireland protocol would be 'completely unacceptable', says US congressman
IT WOULD BE “completely unacceptable” for the United Kingdom to abandon the Northern Ireland protocol, a US congressman has said.

Democrat Brendan Boyle said the UK must “live up” to the protocol that it agreed to with the EU on Northern Ireland, which deals with keeping the border open between Ireland and the North.

Instead of checks along the border, goods coming into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK are inspected at Northern Ireland ports and can then be moved around the island under the terms of the protocol.

Leaders in Westminster and Stormont want to see the protocol renegotiated, claiming that it is dividing Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, but the EU and Irish government are opposed.

On Friday, Taoiseach Michéal Martin and DUP Leader Jeffrey Donaldson held talks in Dublin over the protocol, with Donaldson saying he told the Taoiseach that unionists’ relationship with the rest of the UK is “being harmed on a daily basis by this protocol”.

The Taoiseach said he acknowledged the unionists’ concerns but that the current UK-EU trade agreement has the necessary mechanisms to resolve the issues around the protocol.

In an interview with The Journal, Brendan Boyle said that “the UK, and specifically this British government, negotiated the Northern Ireland Protocol, signed the deal, then campaigned and passed the deal through its parliament, so it is clear that the British government, like all sides, needs to live up to that which it negotiated and agreed to”.

Boyle, whose father immigrated to the US from Donegal in 1970, said that it would be “completely unacceptable for the UK or any party to the agreement to renege on it”.

“The only way forward is through the NI Protocol to mitigate the damage that has been caused by Brexit and the hard Brexit that this British government opted for,” Boyle said.

“The US has not been shy about calling this out publicly and we will continue to do so.”

On the States’ role in the future of Northern Ireland, Boyle said that the US is “always going to maintain a strong interest and an active role in Ireland”.

He said that many of the politicians involved with US foreign policy “believe that the Good Friday Agreement was a major international achievement that wouldn’t have happened without a number of parties but especially the US and that we have a moral responsibility to remain engaged in that effort and to avoid any backsliding into the way things were for decades before the Good Friday Agreement”.

“Irish Americans are part of the mainstream of the US, yet still, for the most part, maintain an interest in what is going on in Ireland today,” Boyle said.

<span class="italic">You’ve probably seen more activity over the last few years from those of us who are active on Irish issues than at any time since the 1990s. The reality is, from the White House to Capitol Hill, there are a number of Irish Americans who are still in very influential roles.”</span>

“There is really no segment or group in the US either politically or in society that opposes US engagement in this issue and so at a time of heightened polarisation, this is one of the few issues where members of both parties are able to work together and see things pretty similarly.”

Boyle is co-chair of the Congressional EU caucus, sits on the House Ways and Means Committee under Richard Neal (D. Massachusetts) Chairman, who is co-chair of the Congressional Friends of Ireland caucus and an architect of the Good Friday Agreement, which Boyle has described as one of the most significant American foreign policy achievements of the 20th century.

Boyle is a member of the Irish National Causus (a registered PAC) and the Congressional Friends of Ireland.

Britons think Brexit is going badly

From the data:

Lib Dems voters - 88%
Labour voters - 81%
Conservative voters - 25% (only 7% 'very badly' - 18% 'fairly badly'.

Doesn't say who they blame though - perhaps the EU!!